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Took a hit today of about 1% (total portfolio). Bought some FAZ at 183.10 after the market had rally back into positive terroritory earlier in the day, thinking we'd come back down by the end of the day. Had a tight stop loss set at $170. It got triggered after the anouncement of the new Fed secretary, but I got $172 and change on the trade for some reason. I was sitting pretty too at that point, and probably should have taken profits, but got greedy.
When I determined the rally to be for real, I bought some ugy at $3.67. Sold it at $3.87. It went over $4 a couple minutes before the close, but I had learned my lesson today. That cut my losses in half for the day. I had a pretty good week though, up about 18% or so. No way would I ever go long into a weekend in this environment. I look foward to seeing a good rally though, because the fundementals haven't changed and being short has been such a crowded trade as of late.
I was surprised that Citi's stock showed no correlation to the end of the day rally. I don't have a position in it... but I had thought it would improve at the end of the day.
Since we had a rally at the end, I fully expect to get bombarded with headlines that we've reached bottom and capitulation was seen over the past two days.
I was surprised that Citi's stock showed no correlation to the end of the day rally. I don't have a position in it... but I had thought it would improve at the end of the day.
Since we had a rally at the end, I fully expect to get bombarded with headlines that we've reached bottom and capitulation was seen over the past two days.
Particularly if we cross back over 8500. I'll be licking my chops at that short. Easy money. Did anyone see the explosion in gold today?
Here's my problem with precious metals. It completely makes sense as a hedge against a decreasing dollar.. However if all other economies are going down too, their's just less and less total wealth (realized or unrealized), and I don't see where the value is going to rise. The demand might increase, but the total amount of wealth that can be used to buy it will decrease. When we hit the bottom of our deflationary period, I think we'll see rampid inflation... but so will everyone else.
I could see the value of holding gold if America alone were to fall off the face of the earth and you moved to a different country after the collapse, but if you plan on staying here, rural real estate is a much better investment. If things are as bad as I think they are going to get, gold won't be any better than paper dollars (in America anyway).
With that kind of move though, you really have to wonder what's going on behind the scenes so to speak. I've been reading alot of Lance Lewis articles on Minyanville, and he believes we are in for a major rally in the yellow metal. With the federal reserve swapping just about any distressed asset for government treasuries, one how much longer the bond market/dollar can continue to rally like they have been.
Took a hit today of about 1% (total portfolio). Bought some FAZ at 183.10 after the market had rally back into positive terroritory earlier in the day, thinking we'd come back down by the end of the day. Had a tight stop loss set at $170. It got triggered after the anouncement of the new Fed secretary, but I got $172 and change on the trade for some reason. I was sitting pretty too at that point, and probably should have taken profits, but got greedy.
When I determined the rally to be for real, I bought some ugy at $3.67. Sold it at $3.87. It went over $4 a couple minutes before the close, but I had learned my lesson today. That cut my losses in half for the day. I had a pretty good week though, up about 18% or so. No way would I ever go long into a weekend in this environment. I look foward to seeing a good rally though, because the fundementals haven't changed and being short has been such a crowded trade as of late.
Yah, FAZ fell HARD today. Down 29% in one hour is a bitter pill. These 3X ETFs are wild.
Have you considered doing a Trailing stop? Or a "one cancels the other" collar?
I generally try not to hold any of the leveraged ETFs at the close. Even in a market that moves in one direction, they start to lose their effectiveness the longer they're held -- and then you have the effect of a market that's up one day, down the next, up the next, etc., where the leveraged ETFs definitely lose out. This can somewhat limit their effectiveness for me to intraday movements (rather than betting on opening price movements). It was a good idea getting out before the bell.
You're right, I'm expecting some short-term upside as well. We'll see.
Nice day. Bought 15 shares of SRS at $140. Didn't get to buy on the open. Work kept me busy this morning. Felt dumb because it traded between $138-$139 all morning, but I knew this market would turn futher south towards the end of the session. I didn't even bother putting in a stop loss. Holding it into tomorrow. With SKF and SRS, you buy when the go under $150 and sell when they go over $200. You can get greedy and go for more (SKF went close to $300 before we had the latest bear market rally), but I choose to take profits before things get that close. Up about 18% from where I bought in. If you would have bought on the open, you could have gotten in at $135 or so. If you bought on Friday before the market closed, you really made some sweet money. SRS closed just short of $165 a share. Look for some more selling tomorrow. Traders market baby!!!
Some random trading thoughts (including days action, meltdown)..
-Anyone else think the market could collapse by 20, 30% in a day one of these days or weeks?
It use to be in the olden days (pre 2008, 2007), a market drop of 5 or 6% was rare. How many over 5% daily declines have we had so far?
Remember the "panic" of 97 or 98? The market dropped 5 or 6% in a day, that was a big deal.
S&P today was down 8.93%....in any other time, that would have been a crash. But in todays world, it's just a continuation of the downdraft.
Wouldn't be suprised at all of a crescendo crash that really scares people. Big black letters on the front page of the NY Times or any major paper. Like S&P down to 600 in a day from 816 today. What else is going to shake people up?
-I don't follow the consumer brands, aapl still seems to be a in a bubble vs other brands or stores. The rest of them, sbux, anf, gps, are all down to '02, or '03 levels. Are apple customers bullet proof to a recession? Or do they bounce back faster?
-any opinions on the former "4 horeseman" of intc, dell, msft and csco.
-I'm dating myself, but what happened to amd? What happened to that business, haven't followed it.
Nice day. Bought 15 shares of SRS at $140. Didn't get to buy on the open. Work kept me busy this morning. Felt dumb because it traded between $138-$139 all morning, but I knew this market would turn futher south towards the end of the session. I didn't even bother putting in a stop loss. Holding it into tomorrow. With SKF and SRS, you buy when the go under $150 and sell when they go over $200. You can get greedy and go for more (SKF went close to $300 before we had the latest bear market rally), but I choose to take profits before things get that close. Up about 18% from where I bought in. If you would have bought on the open, you could have gotten in at $135 or so. If you bought on Friday before the market closed, you really made some sweet money. SRS closed just short of $165 a share. Look for some more selling tomorrow. Traders market baby!!!
Nice plays! SRS was a beast today! I took an $80 loss on NVDA (bought Friday on thoughts about a strong Black Friday) and bought a few puts on DJX at $2.30 and sold at $3.40 -- $312 up on that. I'm still long a few small positions but I'm holding on to them for a little while.
Some random trading thoughts (including days action, meltdown)..
-Anyone else think the market could collapse by 20, 30% in a day one of these days or weeks?
It use to be in the olden days (pre 2008, 2007), a market drop of 5 or 6% was rare. How many over 5% daily declines have we had so far?
Remember the "panic" of 97 or 98? The market dropped 5 or 6% in a day, that was a big deal.
S&P today was down 8.93%....in any other time, that would have been a crash. But in todays world, it's just a continuation of the downdraft.
Wouldn't be suprised at all of a crescendo crash that really scares people. Big black letters on the front page of the NY Times or any major paper. Like S&P down to 600 in a day from 816 today. What else is going to shake people up?
-I don't follow the consumer brands, aapl still seems to be a in a bubble vs other brands or stores. The rest of them, sbux, anf, gps, are all down to '02, or '03 levels. Are apple customers bullet proof to a recession? Or do they bounce back faster?
-any opinions on the former "4 horeseman" of intc, dell, msft and csco.
-I'm dating myself, but what happened to amd? What happened to that business, haven't followed it.
We live in interesting times. The vast majority of my money sits in a treasury bond fund which has been on fire, up almost 8% year to date. Then there's my play money which I usually day trade with. It's crazy, you just have to go with the flow. It's a fat myth that nobody is making money in this market.
A lot of people have been looking for a real 8.9 on the Richter scale selloff, multiple circuit breakers in one day, etc. Who knows?
AAPL is strong but not immune.
No real strong opinions on INTC/DELL/MSFT. AMD is still around but has lost some market share to Intel. AMD and ATI (graphics/3D car maker) merged a couple years ago. They're looking to outsource their manufacturing to concentrate solely on chip design. Share price has gone from $42/share less than three years ago (no splits) to $2/share today (down 95%).
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The vast majority of my money sits in a treasury bond fund which has been on fire, up almost 8% year to date. Then there's my play money which I usually day trade with. It's crazy, you just have to go with the flow. It's a fat myth that nobody is making money in this market. 
