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I too would expect 10,000, at the lowest, to act as a support level. Before the most recent boom it hovered around the 10,000 level for quite a while, I believe a few years. I suppose anywhere from below 12,000 to 10,000 presents good buy opportunities.
Chances are that only another serious act of war, such as 9/11 or one affecting energy supplies, could plunge the Dow below 10,000.
But, again, as you say, this is all speculation. It really is hard to know where real value lies in the stock market, and in housing too for that matter, when for years policymakers have been riddling the monetary system with dirt cheap credit.
We need to restore a monetary system that acts as a store of value, in addition to a means of exchange and unit of account, but I am see no evidence that policymakers have that conviction right now, probably not even an inkling.
When Bernanke comes to congress with hat in hand, begging for economic stimulus, he is basically telling us we are in deep dodo-another words recession.
It depends how bad this becomes- when long term bulls shift to cash- that means another 2,000 point drop to 10K could happen.
When I can buy up the Dow for 2-5 ouces of gold, I'll return as an investor. Until then, it's precious metals, foreign cash, and foreign energy stocks for me .
Looking at the Dow as a number to me is meaningless since the dollar is a moving target: downwards. But...The dow could be at 8000 even with modest inflation.
close to 10,000. Some great companies are way down. Got to separate the hype. There is or will be a great deal of $$ made on the way up. BUT, how long this takes is another question.
Our economy has serious problems that are long term and no connected with a short term economic cycle. I suspect most of us will be living with a significantly lower standard of living in 10 years than we have now. We are entering a period of small wage increases due to a world economy and high inflation due to energy costs and a weak dollar. It was good while it lasted.
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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10,000 to 11,000
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