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Give it about another month. Middle of July is when it usually begins. High pressure has seemed to be more dominant further into June than previous years, and I am not complaining. There literally hasn't been a cloud in the sky in days.
Our monsoon starts in early July and then lasts for about a quarter of the time from then until Halloween, if we're lucky. Note: we are so dry right now... fires are starting in the mts. again this year.
There have been severe thunderstorms along the eastern border of the state (NM/TX state line) for at least a month now. And in the Texas panhandle. I saw the other day something about record-setting rainfall in the Clovis area in one storm, with street flooding, etc. Ruidoso had a week of heavy buildups but no measurable rain - but nothing for over a week now.
Over the thirty years I've lived here I've seen it start on the 4th of July more times than not. Maybe it's just my recollection playing tricks on me with that date, but the monsoon will start in early July.
Over the thirty years I've lived here I've seen it start on the 4th of July more times than not. Maybe it's just my recollection playing tricks on me with that date, but the monsoon will start in early July.
This is true. Does anyone remember last 4th of July in Cruces when the fireworks were going to be held over on Hadley? It was a complete washout. Hadley was almost completely deluged for about an hour, it was a torrential downpour. I think the fireworks began in earnest around 10, but by then we were gone, the kiddos had to go to bed.
Give it about another month. Middle of July is when it usually begins.
Hope so but just recently read on NOAA's diagnostic discussion site that el nino has dissipated last month(May) and that the weather patterns will transition to la nina during the June through August period. So far the weather models are currently forecasting a drier 2010 summer.
Looks like if their right I might have to keep the swamp cooler on more this summer. On the plus side maybe the humidity will be lower and the cooler can do it's job.
While the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) cycle is easily correlated to precipitation during the fall through spring in New Mexico...the good news is that there is no known relationship between ENSO and summer precipitation in New Mexico. And...there is really no other cycle to hang your hat on...no one has proven any skill at summer precipitation forecasting in New Mexico using any weather cycles that have been identified. Here is the latest NOAA forecast (for July-August-September). As you can see...there is mostly "EC" on the map...meaning "equal chances" for above or below normal precipitation for that time period...or as some of us like to say, "equally clueless."
The bad news is that the return to La Nina doesn't bode well for next the winter of 2010-2011 in New Mexico...especially the southern half of the state.
I watch the eastern Pacific/west coast of Mexico for the formation of tropical storms this time of year. That "normally" means an increase in humidity and subsequent chance for daytime thunderstorms in my area. With the advent of annual tropical storms, there is a concurrent counter-clockwise circulation of winds aloft in the area mentioned. Pretty easy to see on satellite water vapor images.
My weather station in the Holman/US70 area has been in operation since April 3rd 2007. I've recently added a Rain Data Analysis page and thought I would throw it in here for reference for any who are curious/interested. It breaks down my accumulation (and lack of) numbers since APR 3rd 2007:
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