[VegasVicsezhowdy]

Old Portuguese proverb:

"Seven trades, the eighth one - poverty"

[bayview6]

Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy

Old Portuguese proverb:

"Seven trades, the eighth one - poverty"

I get the impression that lvoc is not living in poverty.

[tbill618]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

Putting aside your policy observations and recommendations, at the end of the day, we have a pretty good idea how many actual dwellings the USA needs over the course of the next 18-21 years. Every single human being who might form a new household over the coming 18-21 years has already been born. Actuaries give us a pretty accurate forecast of how many of those already-born human beings will survive to adulthood, and how many seniors will pass away, and everything in between. We have a pretty good idea of net household formation.

If you are looking at demographics, world population is expected to peak some time around mid-century. In Mexico, our greatest source of immigrants, birth rates are falling and expected to be at replacement rate in less than 30 years. The greatest drop in birth rates since the start of the great recession in the U.S. has been among Hispanics.

Now the U.S. will still be a magnate for immigrants so this might not affect our population. But we are rapidly approaching a time when the lack of people will be an issue not just for real estate but for labor supply around the world.

[SportyandMisty]

In case you missed it, there was a segment on CNBC this morning regarding an uptick in the initiation of foreclosures.

"...In hard hit Nevada, where a new state law criminalizing faulty foreclosures went into effect last year, foreclosures basically ground to a halt. In February, however, they hit a 17-month high, up 334 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, which means banks will inevitably repossess thousands more properties in the near future.

This as home builders in Las Vegas are ramping up construction, due to historically low supplies of homes for sale. That supply is about to change..."

Source: Headwind to Housing Recovery? Foreclosures Flare-Up Again

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

In case you missed it, there was a segment on CNBC this morning regarding an uptick in the initiation of foreclosures.



Source: Headwind to Housing Recovery? Foreclosures Flare-Up Again

S&M - Have you figured out yet whether there is any meat here? We can easily suck up a thousand or more low end places each month and keep right on going up.

So the question is 330% of what?

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by lvoc

S&M - Have you figured out yet whether there is any meat here? We can easily suck up a thousand or more low end places each month and keep right on going up.

So the question is 330% of what?

Beats me. I have a crummy track record forecasting the future. I just thought it was interesting it made it to CNBC.

One way to look at it is that a large percentage of those homes currently have people living in them (perhaps owners who have not paid the mortgage in a few years; perhaps renters who don't know their landlord hasn't paid the mortgage in a few years), and those people may well be evicted at some point. If true, then those people will need someplace to live -- so there could be a bump up in demand.

[VegasVicsezhowdy]

The power of mass manipulation to guide public behavior is stunning. Banks work the lights, Realtors play the music, and the wall street investors paint their toenails. This is fine work on their part, yet again...
Now then, who's ready for a bit of blackjack?

[Tarara Boomdea]

Complacency At An All-Time High in [Market-Ticker]

There are those who argue that the housing market has "turned." Really? Look at Las Vegas, where there are tens of thousands of homes sitting with people in them who haven't made a mortgage payment in three years!

[Tek_Freek]

If I have learned nothing else from reading the entire thread over the last five years it is this: None of you know.

[NoMoreRJ]

Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy

I actually agree that the market over corrected, it's a classic example of a dead cat bounce but what scares me MOST is the "overall picture". As David Stockman pointed out recently, the fast money people (aka hedge and LBO funds) are only here to make a quick buck, there are too few first time buyers or trade up buyers and as soon as the Fed normalizes interest rates and prices weaken we know what happens, the fast money sells just as quick as they can and yet another bubble bursts.
Rape, pillage, burn, repeat.

Originally Posted by Tek_Freek

If I have learned nothing else from reading the entire thread over the last five years it is this: None of you know.

I agree, we are nothing but a bunch of broken clocks, wrong 23 hours and 58 mins and right for 2 mins.