[AA702]

I also think that people were so use to getting so much work and so much business during the boom years, that this seems like the end of the world. I agree it has slowed down a lot, but people will adapt just like they have before.

[dude66]

Originally Posted by Positiveone

I guess its a fact that the economy problem has hit Vegas, but the mainstream media loves negative news. I don't think or see it as bad as they say. I have to spend week nights in certain casinos. last night ( Monday ) The Hard Rock was packed, 88 % sold for a Monday is real good. Bars were packed, body english club was turning people away. Wasn't quiet thats for sure.

This simply means there are a lot of people who aren't paying attention.

I do pay attention. And I'm telling you, this has the *potential* to be a colossal economic unwinding.

Have you noticed these insane gyrations on the stock market lately? Up +900 points one day, down -800 the next, etc.? The last time the stock market acted like that was 1929-1932, smack in the middle of the Great Depression. It's a sign of a very unhealthy market that cannot trade on fundamentals because nobody trusts anybody anymore. Banks aren't even loaning money to *each other* that's how bad it is, much less to consumers and businesses.

Or check out this article:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

It says that some cargo ships right now are now stranded because there is no credit to pay for the goods they are shipping. Let that sink it. Consider all of the food and goods that are shipped on a daily basis around the world, most ALL of it on *credit* -- the belief and trust that the guy on the other end is good for the bill.

What's happening now is that institutional trust in the very foundations of our economy is slowly disintegrating across the board, and if it picks up steam, only a dark imagination can see where it goes.

Hint: Anybody actually paying attention knows it just happened to Iceland. A wealthy, First World country is now cut off from the "grid", its stock market having crashed 77%, its currently now worthless. The grocery stores there were stripped bare of food for fear that, with a worthless currency, Iceland can't afford to pay for food imports.

Like I said - clue in, pay attention, and understand this is the single most severe economic crisis we've faced in our lifetime. All the emergency banking measure suddenly being enacted around the globe are proof of that.

So the Strip may still have crowds... for now. But if this really picks up steam (and that's unfortunately a strong possibility), those crowds are going to evaporate overnight.

[Positiveone]

Great post! I see what you mean. Your right, this could get bad, real bad. The next President has his hands full!

Thanks for the info!

Originally Posted by dude66

This simply means there are a lot of people who aren't paying attention.

I do pay attention. And I'm telling you, this has the *potential* to be a colossal economic unwinding.

Have you noticed these insane gyrations on the stock market lately? Up +900 points one day, down -800 the next, etc.? The last time the stock market acted like that was 1929-1932, smack in the middle of the Great Depression. It's a sign of a very unhealthy market that cannot trade on fundamentals because nobody trusts anybody anymore. Banks aren't even loaning money to *each other* that's how bad it is, much less to consumers and businesses.

Or check out this article:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

It says that some cargo ships right now are now stranded because there is no credit to pay for the goods they are shipping. Let that sink it. Consider all of the food and goods that are shipped on a daily basis around the world, most ALL of it on *credit* -- the belief and trust that the guy on the other end is good for the bill.

What's happening now is that institutional trust in the very foundations of our economy is slowly disintegrating across the board, and if it picks up steam, only a dark imagination can see where it goes.

Hint: Anybody actually paying attention knows it just happened to Iceland. A wealthy, First World country is now cut off from the "grid", its stock market having crashed 77%, its currently now worthless. The grocery stores there were stripped bare of food for fear that, with a worthless currency, Iceland can't afford to pay for food imports.

Like I said - clue in, pay attention, and understand this is the single most severe economic crisis we've faced in our lifetime. All the emergency banking measure suddenly being enacted around the globe are proof of that.

So the Strip may still have crowds... for now. But if this really picks up steam (and that's unfortunately a strong possibility), those crowds are going to evaporate overnight.

[AA702]

Originally Posted by dude66

This simply means there are a lot of people who aren't paying attention.

I do pay attention. And I'm telling you, this has the *potential* to be a colossal economic unwinding.

Have you noticed these insane gyrations on the stock market lately? Up +900 points one day, down -800 the next, etc.? The last time the stock market acted like that was 1929-1932, smack in the middle of the Great Depression. It's a sign of a very unhealthy market that cannot trade on fundamentals because nobody trusts anybody anymore. Banks aren't even loaning money to *each other* that's how bad it is, much less to consumers and businesses.

Or check out this article:

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

It says that some cargo ships right now are now stranded because there is no credit to pay for the goods they are shipping. Let that sink it. Consider all of the food and goods that are shipped on a daily basis around the world, most ALL of it on *credit* -- the belief and trust that the guy on the other end is good for the bill.

What's happening now is that institutional trust in the very foundations of our economy is slowly disintegrating across the board, and if it picks up steam, only a dark imagination can see where it goes.

Hint: Anybody actually paying attention knows it just happened to Iceland. A wealthy, First World country is now cut off from the "grid", its stock market having crashed 77%, its currently now worthless. The grocery stores there were stripped bare of food for fear that, with a worthless currency, Iceland can't afford to pay for food imports.

Like I said - clue in, pay attention, and understand this is the single most severe economic crisis we've faced in our lifetime. All the emergency banking measure suddenly being enacted around the globe are proof of that.

So the Strip may still have crowds... for now. But if this really picks up steam (and that's unfortunately a strong possibility), those crowds are going to evaporate overnight.

I know what your saying is possible, but what is someone suppose to do if it does happen? Do we have control of it? I think people are still going to try to live their lives as normal as possible. Until there is 50% unemployment and soup lines, then we should start to worry. This is a global problem and I think the whole world is going to get thru this just fine, but that is just my opinion.

[dmilll]

In addition to the economic climate, I think the answer to this question will depend on how the Valley gaming properties manage to re-invent themselves with regards to tourism.

IMO, the emergence of the high-end mega resort combined with related retail/dining have turned Vegas from being a reasonable tourist destination into something that can rival LA/NY cost-wise. These properties (in general) are much more dependant on non-gaming revenue and their bottom lines suffer more when people spend less as mentioned in some of the other replies.

I’m not saying that the mega resorts are going away but I do think you will see some kind of return to the cheap room/eat models of years past in order to lure tourists to gaming where the real money is made (at least in years past).

[MR77]

We are in the middle of a real freak out at work. Sales are way way way down. We are scrambling to generate sales, but you cannot create a demand for a product out of thin air. I cater to the casino and convention industry and I can tell you that budgets are being cut if they are spending at all. If things continue on like this I will be lucky to still have my job at the start of the next quarter. I am very worried. BUT, it is out of my hands. So... what can you do? Figures too.. I just bought a house. Hello roommates!!!

[dude66]

Originally Posted by AA702

I know what your saying is possible, but what is someone suppose to do if it does happen? Do we have control of it? I think people are still going to try to live their lives as normal as possible. Until there is 50% unemployment and soup lines, then we should start to worry. This is a global problem and I think the whole world is going to get thru this just fine, but that is just my opinion.

All the Average Joe can do right now is live frugally and save your pennies. You're going to need them.

Do not for one minute assume the guys in charge are going to fix this mess. I have been watching this crisis grow from a minor tremor in mid-2007 to a full blown Richter-8 earthquake. In that entire time, every single "fix" they have tried has failed. They are running out of options. Last weekend the central banks and governments across all of America, Japan, and Europe attempted to restore confidence with promises of endless cash infusion, bank buyouts, guarantees on inter-bank lending, direct Fed injections into our own banks --- you name it, they offered it.

And it hasn't helped. We plunged -733 plunge today, Japan just crashed -1,089 as I'm typing this. The LIBOR rate barely budged. Confidence has most definitely not been restored.

So a whole bunch of "ammo" was fired at the problem this weekend by the governments of the world and not much changed.

Will they try again? Sure, they have to. Will it work? I don't know... but the experience of this past year would suggest it won't, or at best, be a temporary stop-gap.

All you really need to know is that no one seems to have a clue how to fix the problem and no one is sure how bad it will get - so all you CAN be sure of is yourself and how you prepare. If we dodge a bullet and "only" get a severe recession, then we'll all laugh about our fears when it's over. But if we don't, and that recession becomes something worse, then you'll be glad you had a heads-up and squirreled away a few extra nuts.

[SHEPNYC]

Originally Posted by dmilll

In addition to the economic climate, I think the answer to this question will depend on how the Valley gaming properties manage to re-invent themselves with regards to tourism.

IMO, the emergence of the high-end mega resort combined with related retail/dining have turned Vegas from being a reasonable tourist destination into something that can rival LA/NY cost-wise. These properties (in general) are much more dependant on non-gaming revenue and their bottom lines suffer more when people spend less as mentioned in some of the other replies.

I’m not saying that the mega resorts are going away but I do think you will see some kind of return to the cheap room/eat models of years past in order to lure tourists to gaming where the real money is made (at least in years past).

The stock market agrees with you!

When a company like MGM/Mirage is selling for $13 a share, (down from $95) it indicates a rough few years ahead. Pretty much the same for Wynn and Las Vegas Sands.

I agree with you that the upscale mega resorts work well in good times but will suffer mightily in a recession.

On the upside, deals on rooms, and restaurants will be plentiful through at least 2010.

[joebaldknobber]

Shreveport, Louisiana casinos have been doing well.

[MomMom]

Originally Posted by joebaldknobber

Shreveport, Louisiana casinos have been doing well.

And what does that have to do with Las Vegas?

And in all honestly joe, Louisianna casino's cater to mostly their own local crowds...