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You cannot say that SilverBullet is not right though....he makes some very valid points.....LI has one of the highest shadow inventories IN THE COUNTRY and yet house prices have not gone down nearly as much as in other places (Florida, Vegas, Arizona, etc etc) .....
The housing prices on LI should be about 30% less than what they are now to be on par with the rest of the country....yet they are still elevated.....why??....
You cannot say that SilverBullet is not right though....he makes some very valid points.....LI has one of the highest shadow inventories IN THE COUNTRY and yet house prices have not gone down nearly as much as in other places (Florida, Vegas, Arizona, etc etc) .....
The housing prices on LI should be about 30% less than what they are now to be on par with the rest of the country....yet they are still elevated.....why??....
Housing prices are whatever people will pay for them. There are still some people out there with stable enough incomes who are willing to shell out $450-500 for a colonial in Smithtown...just look at the MLSLI recent sales section. However, for that one sale there are another 10 hi ranches in Smithtown sitting on the market for long periods with listing prices at $425. They aren't going to get that, so it's a question of whether the seller really needs to sell.
Thinking you will get a house for 30% less than listings currently on LI is not realistic. The market's gone down 20% in the last 5 years. There still may be some drop off but not that much.
LI will never be like the rest of the country because we are out of land and there are always high paying jobs in NYC to support a market somewhat inflated above the rest of the country. $500K for a hi-ranch inflated circa 2006, no.
You cannot say that SilverBullet is not right though....he makes some very valid points.....LI has one of the highest shadow inventories IN THE COUNTRY and yet house prices have not gone down nearly as much as in other places (Florida, Vegas, Arizona, etc etc) .....
The housing prices on LI should be about 30% less than what they are now to be on par with the rest of the country....yet they are still elevated.....why??....
First, please explain why LI prices should be on par with the rest of the country? Seriously, why should they be? LI is just plain more expensive than many parts of the USA. It is what it is for many reasons that have been discussed to death. So IMO, it's illogical to think that our market should mimic other areas. We have a micro economy here, as does Cali.
We have learned (Well most of us anyway) that other states were not able to maintain their over value. We can. It is what it is...
This is what I keep saying and please, continue to ACCURATELY mark my words: Our housing bubble popped, and it stabilized. We will see 2-5% variables the coming years. Buying a house now, if you are in the market, would be an alright move.
History keeps repeating itself but with a new twist each time.
Housing prices are whatever people will pay for them. There are still some people out there with stable enough incomes who are willing to shell out $450-500 for a colonial in Smithtown...just look at the MLSLI recent sales section. However, for that one sale there are another 10 hi ranches in Smithtown sitting on the market for long periods with listing prices at $425. They aren't going to get that, so it's a question of whether the seller really needs to sell.
Thinking you will get a house for 30% less than listings currently on LI is not realistic. The market's gone down 20% in the last 5 years. There still may be some drop off but not that much.
LI will never be like the rest of the country because we are out of land and there are always high paying jobs in NYC to support a market somewhat inflated above the rest of the country. $500K for a hi-ranch inflated circa 2006, no.
I agree with everything you wrote. Yet we argue so much. Perhaps we should spin some Rick Asltey records and make up?
Why should they be? Because they should.....what does LI have that CITIES like Vegas, Atlanta, or Miami doesn't have? Miami has the water (warm water at that!!), is 70-90 degrees year round, no snow, and is very tropical feeling.
Vegas is, well....Vegas...loads to do there, just like LI.....
So whats your point? LI is not the be all, end all of the USA....there are places just as nice with housing prices that are 30% less than what they are here.
That 500K colonial in Smithtown that dman was talking about can be had for half that in the places I just mentioned.....
By the way I am not saying these things to sound bitter.....I am saying them as a guy in his late 20's who is still trying to figure out how he is going to afford a 400K house on a 55K income with 8-11K property taxes.
I might be a renter for life.....
And you guys wonder why all of the 25-35 somethings are leaving.....
Why should they be? Because they should.....what does LI have that CITIES like Vegas, Atlanta, or Miami doesn't have? Miami has the water (warm water at that!!), is 70-90 degrees year round, no snow, and is very tropical feeling.
Vegas is, well....Vegas...loads to do there, just like LI.....
So whats your point? LI is not the be all, end all of the USA....there are places just as nice with housing prices that are 30% less than what they are here.
That 500K colonial in Smithtown that dman was talking about can be had for half that in the places I just mentioned.....
...the $100K a year plus jobs NYC provides are in much shorter supply. A secretary in NYC can make 90K a year. Paralegals in Wall St companies make $175K. I'm sure there are a few of those jobs in Atlanta, but nowhere near the volume you have here. That and the fact that we are surrounded by water and that all land within 30 minutes of downtown Manhattan is built over are the reasons.
If I have to explain the vast differences between New York vs Miami and Vegas, I'd rather not.
By the way I am not saying these things to sound bitter.....I am saying them as a guy in his late 20's who is still trying to figure out how he is going to afford a 400K house on a 55K income with 8-11K property taxes.
I might be a renter for life.....
And you guys wonder why all of the 25-35 somethings are leaving.....
You aren't going to afford it by yourself, that's for sure.
If you marry someone or go in on it with a buddy who is also making $55K a year and both of your salaries go up consistently year to year, you will be able to afford a house here easily. Nothing special, but you'll be able to afford it. If you can get a job earning $55K someplace else where housing costs half as much, you should leave. I'll be the first to tell you there is nothing special about Long Island compared to other suburban areas. There is something special about NYC compared to Atlanta, though, there's no question there.
By the way I am not saying these things to sound bitter.....I am saying them as a guy in his late 20's who is still trying to figure out how he is going to afford a 400K house on a 55K income with 8-11K property taxes.
I might be a renter for life.....
And you guys wonder why all of the 25-35 somethings are leaving.....
Take it up with the Unions and mainly the corrupt politicians from the last 20-30 years. The property's priced right imo, it's the taxes that make it unaffordable and create uncertainty. I mean, I really think Apple's stock should be 50% lower because I'd like to buy a few hundred shares, but it is what it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Logical95
Why should they be? Because they should.....what does LI have that CITIES like Vegas, Atlanta, or Miami doesn't have? Miami has the water (warm water at that!!), is 70-90 degrees year round, no snow, and is very tropical feeling.
Vegas is, well....Vegas...loads to do there, just like LI.....
So whats your point? LI is not the be all, end all of the USA....there are places just as nice with housing prices that are 30% less than what they are here.
That 500K colonial in Smithtown that dman was talking about can be had for half that in the places I just mentioned.....
So why not move to those cities -- Vegas, ATL, Miami ?
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