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I think he's referring (in his rambling, LSD soaked way) to the huge drops in housing prices during the last two recessions. NY still digging out from the foreclosures. People have their heads in the cloud about this super debt fueled mega bubble economy we're in (currently fueled by a the Feds endless dumping of freshly printed cash into Wall St buybacks). They can't wrap their heads around their house dropping 30% in value...even though it just happened in 2008. Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. LI will always be a wonderful bedroom community of the great NYC, an atrocious value but good place to raise a family...but market and housing corrections happen. Sooner or later. Always.
Ah, then in that case, I agree with you. Market and housing corrections happen, sooner or later, always.
I did not buy because "housing always goes up" or because it's "an investment." Like everyone, I need a place to live, and the rent-or-buy calculator favored buying. For me, the magic number was about $2,500 a month, and I found it very difficult to legally rent anywhere in Nassau for less than that.
Qualitatively to me this math means you going to take the 25 to 50% haircut on your real estate in the not-so-distant future. My thinking is that Long Island Real Estate will simply become unsellable at any price.
I’ve been hearing that decade after decade.
This bubble started a decade ago. lol Anyone who was planning to sell and retire in 2008 is likely still in the house now, or sold in the last 2-3 years. Luck and timing matters. What were you "hearing" in 2009?! Things were barely sell-able, for lowball cash only. No easy financing, lots of foreclosures, no rubber stamp COs/Permits, general misery for anyone over 55. Values down +/- 30%. Flippers w cash made out. Foreign investors cleaned up. The mortgage industry imploded and LI lost billions in RE equity. Surprised you didn't "hear about it."
Ah, then in that case, I agree with you. Market and housing corrections happen, sooner or later, always.
I did not buy because "housing always goes up" or because it's "an investment." Like everyone, I need a place to live, and the rent-or-buy calculator favored buying. For me, the magic number was about $2,500 a month, and I found it very difficult to legally rent anywhere in Nassau for less than that.
Careening off topic but I agree with you. I bought my house to live in. In 20+ years it's been below water in value by $75k and above by $200k at times. Nothing stays the same and nothing goes up forever. However if I wanted to sell when it was $75k underwater, it's a much more harrowing experience than trying to sell when it's $200k above...but that is dictated by the market...something only the arrogant on here think they have some sway over. Contrary to opinion, a house is not a great nest egg. No guarantee the equity will be there when it's needed.
What will actually happen, is the feds and politicos will dump more stimulus to prop up housing and stocks for another few years and kick the can down the road. Grab that money now but diversify. When the party's over the hangover will be brutal.
what you're leaving out of the report are the ethnic demographic changes.
Since the year 2000, the 20-44 age group saw a 9.3% decline in population.
From 2005 to 2016:
the White population declined by 7.48%
the Hispanic population increased 41.48%
the Black population went up 7.82%
the Asian population increased 40.08%.
Today, 4 out of 10 residents are minorities, putting Long Island on track to be majority minority ahead of the nation, which is expected to do so in 2045 .
Nassau County also ranks in the top 3% of all counties in the United States when looking at the earning disparity of the top 1% of earners. On average, the top 1% of earners in Nassau County earn 31 times as much as the bottom 99% of earners (10). This disparity was illustrated in a recent presentation by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which reported that low and high wage jobs are growing faster than those paying middle-income wages across Long Island.
Of the nearly 27,100 jobs created on Long Island between 2015 and 2017, more than half, or 15,520, had median salaries below $30,000 and 9,300 jobs had salaries above $60,000 (11). The presentation stressed that the trend of low-wage and high-wage positions outpacing middle-wage positions are not consistent with national trends, where all three employment groups grew by roughly the same amount.
In February of 2019, the Comptroller's Office released "This is Nassau: Black Economic Equity", which highlighted the income disparity across racial lines. According to Policy Link, Long Island's economy could have been nearly $24 billion stronger in 2014 had the racial income gap been closed.
Housing Costs
The Regional Plan Association has asserted that America’s first suburb has gone from being one of the most affordable places to raise a family to one of the least (12) and is causing the departure of young professionals.
Young professionals that haven’t left the County in search of affordable housing are living at home with their parents at an increasing rate. In 1970, fewer than 10% of the 25-34 age group on Long Island lived with their parents compared to 44.4% in 2016 (13). This represents a four-fold increase in young adults that live with at least one parent. Nationally, just 16% of this age group lives at home with their parents.
]To make it simple per the report;
1) If you and want to stay in LI you might try to sell your house and get an apartment
2) Young professional folks with earnings power are fleeing in droves, other young folks are living at home
3) So the replacement buyers are from Queens and are Hispanic or Asian. More people occupying single family houses with lower median salary - yet there is still a net outflow of people.
To make it simple again.
More people want to move out than in with a net outflow of people
Poor people want to move in with greater demand on schools in particular
Young professionals with earnings power want to move out
Tax and cost structure is off the hook
Prices have to go down
First they will go down 25% to 50%
Then the market will be lack liquidity in total - houses will become unsalable. There are tons of zombie houses in LI tons.
Citdata is in the business of marketing real estate
This site is about helping you buy a home..
There is nothing in citydata that speaks to not buying a home because its a bad investment.
I read the report again. Hidden in the details is the conclusion that LI needs more public transportation and that will fix things. I called up the comptrollers office and spoke to a nice young kid in communications that who personally bought a house in Elmont because it was the only place he can afford. He and I talked to some of the same points. even though we did not agree on all points;
1) there are too many school districts and governments on LI (52 school districts, transportation authorities) each with its own demands on the tax base
2) the infrastructure and housing stock is fully depreciated
3) there is too much accumulated debt from corruption and mismanagement that has accrued for decades
4) only high incomes justify the build out of apartments and economic centers near train stations
A better conclusion might be for LI to consolidate its governments and structure bankruptcy so it could have a fresh financial start in refreshing infrastructureWe both agreed that my proposed solutions will lack political capital and thus be impossible to implement.
My conclusion then is LI is done for. DONE
There are 127 districts - 124 plus 3 BOCES, not 52.
what you're leaving out of the report are the ethnic demographic changes.
Since the year 2000, the 20-44 age group saw a 9.3% decline in population.
From 2005 to 2016:
the White population declined by 7.48%
the Hispanic population increased 41.48%
the Black population went up 7.82%
the Asian population increased 40.08%.
Today, 4 out of 10 residents are minorities, putting Long Island on track to be majority minority ahead of the nation, which is expected to do so in 2045 .
Nassau County also ranks in the top 3% of all counties in the United States when looking at the earning disparity of the top 1% of earners. On average, the top 1% of earners in Nassau County earn 31 times as much as the bottom 99% of earners (10). This disparity was illustrated in a recent presentation by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which reported that low and high wage jobs are growing faster than those paying middle-income wages across Long Island.
Of the nearly 27,100 jobs created on Long Island between 2015 and 2017, more than half, or 15,520, had median salaries below $30,000 and 9,300 jobs had salaries above $60,000 (11). The presentation stressed that the trend of low-wage and high-wage positions outpacing middle-wage positions are not consistent with national trends, where all three employment groups grew by roughly the same amount.
In February of 2019, the Comptroller's Office released "This is Nassau: Black Economic Equity", which highlighted the income disparity across racial lines. According to Policy Link, Long Island's economy could have been nearly $24 billion stronger in 2014 had the racial income gap been closed.
Housing Costs
The Regional Plan Association has asserted that America’s first suburb has gone from being one of the most affordable places to raise a family to one of the least (12) and is causing the departure of young professionals.
Young professionals that haven’t left the County in search of affordable housing are living at home with their parents at an increasing rate. In 1970, fewer than 10% of the 25-34 age group on Long Island lived with their parents compared to 44.4% in 2016 (13). This represents a four-fold increase in young adults that live with at least one parent. Nationally, just 16% of this age group lives at home with their parents.
]To make it simple per the report;
1) If you and want to stay in LI you might try to sell your house and get an apartment
2) Young professional folks with earnings power are fleeing in droves, other young folks are living at home
3) So the replacement buyers are from Queens and are Hispanic or Asian. More people occupying single family houses with lower median salary - yet there is still a net outflow of people.
To make it simple again.
More people want to move out than in with a net outflow of people
Poor people want to move in with greater demand on schools in particular
Young professionals with earnings power want to move out
Tax and cost structure is off the hook
Prices have to go down
First they will go down 25% to 50%
Then the market will be lack liquidity in total - houses will become unsalable. There are tons of zombie houses in LI tons.
Citdata is in the business of marketing real estate
This site is about helping you buy a home..
There is nothing in citydata that speaks to not buying a home because its a bad investment.
I wonder why builders keep knocking down homes for 1m+ 3500k sq ft homes. It must be because nobody wants them. People keep buying them. LI will become only upper middle class and poor. That is fine, the market dictates the prices. So what if prices drop 25% who cares ( it's not going to happen) what comes down will always go up. in 25 years from now we will be hearing the same crap as today. It's all doom and gloom blah blah blah.
Ah, then in that case, I agree with you. Market and housing corrections happen, sooner or later, always.
I did not buy because "housing always goes up" or because it's "an investment." Like everyone, I need a place to live, and the rent-or-buy calculator favored buying. For me, the magic number was about $2,500 a month, and I found it very difficult to legally rent anywhere in Nassau for less than that.
My last apartment was Woodbury.. It was much cheaper to rent. Zillow had the apartment value slated near $750,000 so no way could you buy the same property for 3K a month. That being said the rent was too damn high at $3000 per month.
For 3K a month in FLA and you are getting "cream" (waterfront, view, best neighborhood) and in Woodbury you will get a run down "luxury apartment"
There are 127 districts - 124 plus 3 BOCES, not 52.
Then there are twice as many $300,000 superintendents to be paid by folks living on $30K a year or at the poverty line. Why dont we be honest and adjust the local poverty line on LI to around $150,000 per family or so, better to reflect the real cost of being able to afford food, housing, and transport, and healthcare on LI.
My last apartment was Woodbury.. It was much cheaper to rent. Zillow had the apartment value slated near $750,000 so no way could you buy the same property for 3K a month. That being said the rent was too damn high at $3000 per month.
For 3K a month in FLA and you are getting "cream" (waterfront, view, best neighborhood) and in Woodbury you will get a run down "luxury apartment"
You cut and paste a lot of cyclical data as though it were fixed. If you look at prices/values of RE (buying, renting, interest rates, market trends/volatility) it goes up and down. If you sold in 2008 and rented, you would have done well for 4-5 years. After 2012 or so you'd have paid way too much to rent and lost six figures plus in equity growth from then til now. No one can time these things, but the NY metro will carry on. LI will continue to Queensify (maybe smartly, probably idiotically like we're doing now), but it will still be a top 25 world metro area, and still be overpriced, overtaxed and overvalued.
The data was from the Nassau County controller's report and his information was the census. So yeah the data is stale. Is the overview correct.
The overview and the data confirms the the trend for Nassau County to become more Queens like in terms of its population mix. Perhaps the folks from Queens see Nassau County as the figurative Deluxe apartment in the sky, school districts that is.
In the late 1950s and early 1960s it was a population outflow from Brooklyn, the population took the Brooklyn Renaissance with them to Long Island. Many of those folks we're educated in high quality New York City Public Schools and then later within the City University of New York. The kids of those folks are my age and they were the teachers, lawyers, educators, accountants, financiers, technologists who are moving and shaking economically. Our parents and we were the high earners and many of us were the beneficiaries of arbitraging New York City's economy.
There's no economic reason or quality-of-life reason as to why we would want to stay in Long Island. We will take our money with us and a goodly percentage of us will be stuck in Long Island stewing. Those old folk too stubborn to move will be stuck paying for many kids many school districts many Civil Service employees many pensions. Nassau will be worse than queens it's fully depreciated at this moment in time. Queens has more redeeming features than Nassau County. School districts quality is a backward-looking metric
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