My brother said LA has more crime (Los Angeles, Pasadena: violent crime, felony)

[dustin183]

Just talked to my brother. He has lived in LA since about 2000... so about 23 years.

He said there was a lot of crime these days there.

I said "even compared to a year ago?"
He said yes.

What do you think - have you noticed an increase in crime?

I lived in LA for about 8 years. Left in 2016.

[Winter Coven]

What kind of crime?

[moguldreamer]

The deterrence of crime in this context can be modeled via a system of conditional probabilities, such as

• the probability of a crime being reported GIVEN a crime has occurred
• the probability of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) investigating a crime GIVEN that a crime is reported
• the probability of identifying a suspect GIVEN that a crime is investigated
• the probability of procuring an indictment or arrest warrant GIVEN a suspect is identified
• the probability of an arrest GIVEN the existence of an indictment or arrest warrant
• the probability of prosecution GIVEN an arrest
• the probability of conviction GIVEN prosecution (either through a plea deal or through judgment rendering)
• the probability of being sentenced to prison time GIVEN a conviction
• the probability of incarceration GIVEN a conviction
• the probability of serving a substantial portion of the prison sentence GIVEN actual incarceration

The model doesn't predict individual criminal behaviour, but in aggregate does a reasonable prediction. When the costs of the string of conditional probabilities are compared to the payoff of successfully executing the crime, if the payoff is sufficiently high and the conditional probabilities drive the costs down sufficiently low, crime increases in aggregate.

Merely increasing one of the line items above, by itself, doesn't do much to deter crime. Increasing all the probabilities in the string above does a very good job.

One of the factors at play, of course, is that in certain cities, District Attorneys decline to prosecute crimes for political reasons. The District Attorney is, after all, a political office.

And, of course, some states are reducing prison capacity. On purpose.

[skyway31]

Originally Posted by moguldreamer

The deterrence of crime in this context can be modeled via a system of conditional probabilities, such as

• the probability of a crime being reported GIVEN a crime has occurred
• the probability of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs) investigating a crime GIVEN that a crime is reported
• the probability of identifying a suspect GIVEN that a crime is investigated
• the probability of procuring an indictment or arrest warrant GIVEN a suspect is identified
• the probability of an arrest GIVEN the existence of an indictment or arrest warrant
• the probability of prosecution GIVEN an arrest
• the probability of conviction GIVEN prosecution (either through a plea deal or through judgment rendering)
• the probability of being sentenced to prison time GIVEN a conviction
• the probability of incarceration GIVEN a conviction
• the probability of serving a substantial portion of the prison sentence GIVEN actual incarceration

The model doesn't predict individual criminal behaviour, but in aggregate does a reasonable prediction. When the costs of the string of conditional probabilities are compared to the payoff of successfully executing the crime, if the payoff is sufficiently high and the conditional probabilities drive the costs down sufficiently low, crime increases in aggregate.

Merely increasing one of the line items above, by itself, doesn't do much to deter crime. Increasing all the probabilities in the string above does a very good job.

One of the factors at play, of course, is that in certain cities, District Attorneys decline to prosecute crimes for political reasons. The District Attorney is, after all, a political office.

And, of course, some states are reducing prison capacity. On purpose.

All a part of Critical Social Justice Ideology, which posits that- like every single system, structure, norm and standard- jails are oppressive and must be abolished. "Abolitionists" push for the complete and total abolition of police and jails. They'll settle, temporarily, for mere cuts/reductions to these entities. And they know that there is a breaking point where, with many more criminals on the streets rather than in jail, and a weakened police force, the police will cease to be able to contain the revolution. None of this is the goal of "Democrats", but it is the goal of the far leftist radicals who those Democrats end up beholden to in a place like Los Angeles.

[Thekdog]

Probably more "quality of life" crimes which progressives inexplicably think aren't worth prosecuting

[Taiko]

Originally Posted by dustin183

Just talked to my brother. He has lived in LA since about 2000... so about 23 years.

He said there was a lot of crime these days there.

I said "even compared to a year ago?"
He said yes.

What do you think - have you noticed an increase in crime?

I lived in LA for about 8 years. Left in 2016.

So you lived hear during the Villaraigosa years when the murder rate did drop as he proudly proclaimed and while it seems to be trending up we now. It is the visible petty criminal where police and security guards used to stop.. They now just brazenly walk in and steal up to California's felony limit with no one and nothing stopping them. Catalytic converters being stolen like car radios were back in the 80s. And porch piracy who steal despite the videos, which the news will show making everybody feel more uneasy. are taking more and more.

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by skyway31

All a part of Critical Social Justice Ideology, which posits that- like every single system, structure, norm and standard- jails are oppressive and must be abolished. "Abolitionists" push for the complete and total abolition of police and jails. They'll settle, temporarily, for mere cuts/reductions to these entities. And they know that there is a breaking point where, with many more criminals on the streets rather than in jail, and a weakened police force, the police will cease to be able to contain the revolution. None of this is the goal of "Democrats", but it is the goal of the far leftist radicals who those Democrats end up beholden to in a place like Los Angeles.

You might want to loosen up that tinfoil hat.

[Kings Gambit]

Originally Posted by dustin183

Just talked to my brother. He has lived in LA since about 2000... so about 23 years.

He said there was a lot of crime these days there.

I said "even compared to a year ago?"
He said yes.

What do you think - have you noticed an increase in crime?

I lived in LA for about 8 years. Left in 2016.

Overall, violent crime is down, but property crime is up as well as hate crimes. It also depends on where EXACTLY you live as well.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...s/11032761002/

[Winter Coven]

Originally Posted by highlanderfil

You might want to loosen up that tinfoil hat.

Naw, he is right.

Some critical race theorist wrote in the L.A. Times recently that the 10, 110, and 105 freeways are racist (that is right, a road is racist) because they carry white people and their polluting cars through communities of color.

See, those cars driven by people of color don't pollute their neighborhoods when they use the freeways, just the "white" cars.

Oh, and the 405 and 101 don't count, and not just because the 405 goes through the Westside. They were routed due to geography.

But the 10 is not a straight shot from DTLA to the sea, the 110 is not a straight shot to the harbor and Pasadena, and the 105 is not a straight shot to LAX.

They are just racist.

https://www.latimes.com/environment/...-boiling-point

[Thekdog]

Originally Posted by Winter Coven

Naw, he is right.

Some critical race theorist wrote in the L.A. Times recently that the 10, 110, and 105 freeways are racist (that is right, a road is racist) because they carry white people and their polluting cars through communities of color.

See, those cars driven by people of color don't pollute their neighborhoods when they use the freeways, just the "white" cars.

Oh, and the 405 and 101 don't count, and not just because the 405 goes through the Westside. They were routed due to geography.

But the 10 is not a straight shot from DTLA to the sea, the 110 is not a straight shot to the harbor and Pasadena, and the 105 is not a straight shot to LAX.

They are just racist.

https://www.latimes.com/environment/...-boiling-point

What's funny about this is article is their example is the 710, which was NOT finished, and as a result people use surface streets to go through neighborhood