Population slightly down in MA 2022 (Boston, Quincy: crime, affordable houses, living in)

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Good question that I don't have an answer to.

It seems to be common sense, though, that values would decline if the supply increased substantially.

It all depends on what an increase of supply does to demand.

If the thesis that the population losses are mostly due to the lack of available housing, then increasing supply will be filled by people not moving and prices may only stabilize instead of heading down.

The other point for SFH home owners is that there isn’t a lot of land left for green field development. Most additional housing will have to be in the form of higher density units. Despite what some people may say, there still is a considerable premium people are willing to pay for SFHs. Not everyone wants a SFH, so there will likely br some erosion of that existing demand, but if the increased higher density housing increases overall demand, there may still be an increase in overall demand for what people already own.

It’s also possible demand isn’t really limited by prices and increased supply will kill prices.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

Is there evidence of declines in value in HCOL areas due to additional housing units being built? From my observations of the SF Bay Area it hasn’t happened. Yes prices are down now compared to peak but more due to tech layoffs than supply creeping up to meet demand.

Yes, they have other issues related to overpopulation.

My understanding is that San Francisco is down 10%. The house purchase math there is that people aren’t buying houses with a mortgage paying with W-2 money. They’ve been using stock money from IPOs and options/grants. Tech stocks corrected. The money machine halted and the housing market slowed because the volume of new millionaires wanting to buy housing dropped off.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

It all depends on what an increase of supply does to demand.

If the thesis that the population losses are mostly due to the lack of available housing, then increasing supply will be filled by people not moving and prices may only stabilize instead of heading down.

The other point for SFH home owners is that there isn’t a lot of land left for green field development. Most additional housing will have to be in the form of higher density units. Despite what some people may say, there still is a considerable premium people are willing to pay for SFHs. Not everyone wants a SFH, so there will likely br some erosion of that existing demand, but if the increased higher density housing increases overall demand, there may still be an increase in overall demand for what people already own.

It’s also possible demand isn’t really limited by prices and increased supply will kill prices.

You can always knock things down and build apartment and condo towers near subway stops like New York City. Of course, the city of Boston hates towers and Cambridge is virulent about them. I kind of laugh at Boston finger pointing at the blue chip suburbs when they are the biggest problem.

[msRB311]

I also don't understand why the additional housing and units wouldn't just get built in places like BOSTON or towns/cities closest to Boston. Building additional housing in a place like Marshfield or Hanover seems dumb.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I also don't understand why the additional housing and units wouldn't just get built in places like BOSTON or towns/cities closest to Boston. Building additional housing in a place like Marshfield or Hanover seems dumb.

Agreed. If it’s not a 5 minute walk to a subway station, there’s not much point in increasing the density.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Agreed. If it’s not a 5 minute walk to a subway station, there’s not much point in increasing the density.

And yes it will annoy the people who live in these suburbs who maybe made a choice to get away from the city and more congested areas because that's what they, you know wanted and paid for.

Hyde Park has quite a bit of open space that should be used. I know there are other places in and around Boston but that is a place for sure that should be used for development. HP does have a lot of green space as well which Im sure people want to stay. Readville has so much wasted space, no idea why no one wants to build there.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I also don't understand why the additional housing and units wouldn't just get built in places like BOSTON or towns/cities closest to Boston. Building additional housing in a place like Marshfield or Hanover seems dumb.

Because it way more expensive to build there with much less available land…

You just build a bunch of townhomes and smaller lot SFHs in Marshfield and Hanover like they do everywhere else in the country.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Because it way more expensive to build there with much less available land…

You just build a bunch of townhomes and smaller lot SFHs in Marshfield and Hanover like they do everywhere else in the country.

You're really all about building up those south shore suburbs huh? You also realize that's adding to more nightmare traffic and MBTA issues.

I'm guessing most people without kids would prefer to live in Boston than a south shore town. There is a development near me that is close to the highway and I always see transient type people who appear to be mentally ill or on drugs roaming along the highway. Those are sadly the types of people that places like that bring in. I think single people get more isolated and being in the city of near the city is probably better for them.

[BosYuppie]

The state needs more housing EVERYWHERE, at least east of Worcester.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by BosYuppie

The state needs more housing EVERYWHERE, at least east of Worcester.

There are homes being built in my town...it's not like it's not happening...they're being built but they're not affordable housing. Anytime a house is built these days it seems to get listed for at least a million.