From Los Angeles to Florida

[bale002]

Originally Posted by jessemh431

So i just found out that my friends sister just moved back to LA from Tampa about a week ago. She was a real estate agent down there and hadn't sold a house in 2 years. She said the homes are cheap, but insurance you have to pay for hurricanes is unbelievable and tons of people are moving out, but no one is moving into Florida in general and that's why the homes are so cheap. Is she right?

Not exactly, it's a bit more complicated than that. Insurance costs are just one factor, and a relatively recent one at that. Furthermore, the population of Florida has increased significantly in the last seven years or so, but in the last year or two indeed there probably has been a net outflow.

Before the credit/real estate/illegal immigration bubble in the 2001-2005 period, Florida was already for years cheap mainly because, simplifying, it had a relatively shallow job market and local incomes were low.

Florida house prices then sky-rocketed, especially in the 2004-2005 period, by traditional Florida standards, while wages for most people stagnated. Buying was fueled by an improving real economy in some areas, but also by outsiders with money and suicide-type lending (foreclosures are now at cyclical peaks, maybe all-time highs in some areas).

The rise in prices led to proportional increases in property taxes. At the same time however, the state was hit by a wave of hurricanes. This led to sky-rocketing insurance rates. Now, on top of that, the credit markets have dried up now that many suicide loans are indeed proving to be money-losers for those on the lower ends of the credit investment chain.

So now property prices in Florida are giving back that part of their recent gains that are not commensurate with real improvements in its economy, but fueled instead by the latest version of the US bubble economy, and squashed by a higher level of property taxes and sky-rocketing insurance costs.

In short, the Florida economy is not as deep as that of the northeast or California, for example, among other differences in the quality of life, and relative real estate prices reflect that. During the bubble years, real estate prices, property taxes, and HOI rates sky-rocketed as Florida's economy diversified somewhat and a lot of people from outside with money moved into the state, while the wages of most long-time Florida residents stagnated, these people make up the bulk of those who have left or are leaving. On top of that, now that the bubble has burst, fewer outsiders with money are coming in because Florida is less a good deal than it was before. So, in a few years, Florida has gone from being a state with a net inflow of people to a net outflow.

Those areas of Florida with the flimsiest economy, like the southwest, have experienced the sharpest price drops in the last year or so, while prices have held up, so far, in areas where the economy in relatively deep, at least by Florida standards, like the southeast, Tampa, Jacksonville, though one does notice price erosion lately in these markets as well.

Overall, Florida has always been relatively cheap compared to California and the northeast, during the bubble years it "caught up" somewhat, but now with rising property taxes, sky-rocketing insurance rates, and the gory end to the credit bubble, it will give back some of this "catch up", at least for the time being.

[UB50]

I think you'll be really disappointed in Florida if you are trying to compare it to Los Angeles.

I've lived in Florida and I've lived in Las Vegas. The difference between "humid heat" and "dry heat" is this: One feels like living in a sauna or steam bath; the other feels like living in a clothes dryer. They both are bad, as far as I'm concerned, but the dry heat doesn't feel as bad. (Except you get a lot of static electricity with dry heat which makes your hair fly around and your clothes cling to you.)

The beaches in Florida aren't much like the beaches in California. As someone else pointed out, the waves aren't very high unless there is a hurricane or tropical storm headed your way. The water is warmer than California's water. It's also a lot hotter at the beach in Florida too.

[jessemh431]

So I might not be going to Florida. I was telling my mom and aunt (who is pretty much a second mom) about it and they said that there is no way I am moving to Florida and that I would hate. They said I would hate the weather, jobs don't pay enough, I would want to come home after the first hurricane (they both went through one in Tampa and they were scared of it even though it only Cat. 2). Also, I am Jewish and they said there are pretty much no Jews anywhere in Florida. And I'm also a Democrat and they said that FL is all Republican. I hope not all of that is true, especially the Jewish thing, because I was really starting to like FL.

The only thing is that there are tons of people on this website that have moved from LA to Tampa and hated it. I am just hoping that they are the minority, although I'm pretty sure they aren't.

[Magnolia Bloom]

Originally Posted by jessemh431

So I might not be going to Florida. I was telling my mom and aunt (who is pretty much a second mom) about it and they said that there is no way I am moving to Florida and that I would hate. They said I would hate the weather, jobs don't pay enough, I would want to come home after the first hurricane (they both went through one in Tampa and they were scared of it even though it only Cat. 2). Also, I am Jewish and they said there are pretty much no Jews anywhere in Florida. And I'm also a Democrat and they said that FL is all Republican. I hope not all of that is true, especially the Jewish thing, because I was really starting to like FL.

The only thing is that there are tons of people on this website that have moved from LA to Tampa and hated it. I am just hoping that they are the minority, although I'm pretty sure they aren't.

Maybe you should rethink ruling FL out, but I would suggest Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood. First, you are young and will be fresh out of school, so the worst that can happen is that you try it for a year or two, don't like it and can then relocate. The professional contacts that you will have made will open doors to places far and wide- national and international.

The pluses, as I see them, are that it is very diverse, you could work in Miami or Broward. There is a vibrant Jewish community- also good for career and personal networking.

The Republican thing...well, Broward had the largest plurality of votes in the nation for Clinton when he was elected, but that has changed....it has gotten more Republican. But if you check out the elected officials, there are many dems- many Jewish dems at that. But Florida is definately a red state and that can be tiresome

The houing market being what it is, you could rent a very nice place near the beach and downtown, for a reasonable price, even given the lower wages paid in FL.

The weather- well, it is humid, but living on the east coast, less so. Hurricanes- there are hurricanes and tropical storms, of course. I guess natural disasters are a matter of taste. Earthquakes and tornados scare me more. At least with hurricanes, you have advance warning.

About Jacksonville- I would definately aviod Jax- very Republican, not very Jewish. I live near two synagogs and see a handful of families walking to temple on Friday evenings. And there is a very nice JCA (like a JCC) here. But the First Baptist Church downtown runs the place- something that gives me (a Christian) pause. I miss the Jewish influence and more liberal political atmosphere most of all.

I went to college in Tampa, but that was long ago and I was a student, so the campus was my world.

Unless the humidity is a deal breaker, maybe a trip to southeast Florida is in order. I think you might like it!

[bale002]

Just north of Miami-Broward is Palm Beach County, featuring Boca Raton which is (NY) Jew heaven: don't mean to offend by saying that, on the contrary, I live nearby and have a positive, at least not negative, view of the place, clean, well-ordered, safe, if perhaps somewhat boring, but, then again, so am I.

The economy features software and telecommunications, while dentistry pretty much goes everywhere.

The problem with southeastern Florida is that, unless the ongoing credit market disaster leads to a 30%-40% drop in house buy prices, it is the most expensive region of the state, and unless you score a spectacular success in your career, and/or have family help, comfortably buying a home and raising children in the region is a very tall order indeed, though not impossible.

Good luck!

[TrueDat]

There's still a decent size Jewish population in Miami Beach.

[rogerbacon]

Originally Posted by jessemh431

Also, I am Jewish and they said there are pretty much no Jews anywhere in Florida. And I'm also a Democrat and they said that FL is all Republican. I hope not all of that is true, especially the Jewish thing, because I was really starting to like FL.

LOL. No Jews in Florida? Please. South Florida is on most jihadists' short list of targets due to the high concentration of Jews. Outside of New York I'm sure we have more Jews here than any other state.

As for Democrats, the three southern counties in Florida (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach) voted Democrat in the last four elections. Most of Florida is Republican (which is a very good thing IMHO) but dense population centers tend to vote Democrat. Now if we could only get a electoral college based on one vote per county...

[PBCboy]

Originally Posted by jessemh431

So I might not be going to Florida. I was telling my mom and aunt (who is pretty much a second mom) about it and they said that there is no way I am moving to Florida and that I would hate. They said I would hate the weather, jobs don't pay enough, I would want to come home after the first hurricane (they both went through one in Tampa and they were scared of it even though it only Cat. 2). Also, I am Jewish and they said there are pretty much no Jews anywhere in Florida. And I'm also a Democrat and they said that FL is all Republican. I hope not all of that is true, especially the Jewish thing, because I was really starting to like FL.

The only thing is that there are tons of people on this website that have moved from LA to Tampa and hated it. I am just hoping that they are the minority, although I'm pretty sure they aren't.

Are you joking? South Florida has one of the highest Jewish populations in entire U.S., and this state has voted Republican. And the weather here is some of the best in the country!