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Old 08-11-2017, 02:19 PM
 
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I thought this article and interactive map are interesting. Seems like a lot of the top districts commonly recommended on CD are seeing declines or small growth. I was surprised. What are your thoughts?


Mapping New Jersey’s Shrinking School Districts | Route 40
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Old 08-11-2017, 02:35 PM
 
Location: "The Falls"
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Originally Posted by Busch Boy View Post
I thought this article and interactive map are interesting. Seems like a lot of the top districts commonly recommended on CD are seeing declines or small growth. I was surprised. What are your thoughts?


Mapping New Jersey’s Shrinking School Districts | Route 40
We left the state because it's too expensive.
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Old 08-11-2017, 02:54 PM
 
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Originally Posted by NYtoNJtoPA View Post
We left the state because it's too expensive.

Meanwhile districts in poor areas are booming. It's scary to think how this state will sustain itself in the future if the balance is skewed this way. Hopefully the tax issue is addressed (don't hold your breath) along with some upward mobility.
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Old 08-11-2017, 03:01 PM
 
Location: "The Falls"
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Originally Posted by Busch Boy View Post
Meanwhile districts in poor areas are booming. It's scary to think how this state will sustain itself in the future if the balance is skewed this way. Hopefully the tax issue is addressed (don't hold your breath) along with some upward mobility.
I thought Camden dropped the most.
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Old 08-11-2017, 03:22 PM
 
13,616 posts, read 8,678,843 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Busch Boy View Post
I thought this article and interactive map are interesting. Seems like a lot of the top districts commonly recommended on CD are seeing declines or small growth. I was surprised. What are your thoughts?


Mapping New Jersey’s Shrinking School Districts | Route 40

Isn't a really big secret, higher income and or better educated young people are delaying marriage and or household formation (i.e. having children). As such in many areas you are seeing a slowly aging population as the boomers (and their parents, grandparents, etc....) age or have aged out of baby making years.


Then you have to add what is already being discussed in another thread, young people are leaving suburban areas for urban. In much of NYC in particular large parts of Manhattan primary and secondary schools are bursting with kids. So much so NYC is scrambling to add space. This includes many wealthy areas such as UES, UWS, Soho, Tribeca, West and Greenwich Village, etc...
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Old 08-12-2017, 03:27 PM
 
1,049 posts, read 1,237,577 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Busch Boy View Post
I thought this article and interactive map are interesting. Seems like a lot of the top districts commonly recommended on CD are seeing declines or small growth. I was surprised. What are your thoughts?


Mapping New Jersey’s Shrinking School Districts | Route 40
I'm sure those districts becoming unaffordable to many is a factor, but I'd also suggest that many of the wealthy suburbs are basically built out at this point. A lot of them saw their big boom within the past 25-30 years. There's a lot of people who bought new, had kids, and haven't moved on since although their kids are now past grade school ages.

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For an example, I know Warren Township pretty well. Enrollment is down 20% in the past 6 years according to this. The population has grown by ~5% in the past 6 years, but a lot of that was some senior housing developments.

When did Warren see a big boom? 1990-2000, 32% population growth. If you were like most buyers there in the 90s and bought a house there and had some kids in the 90s, they've all exited the public schools at this point. But you probably still work and haven't retired to someplace lower-cost yet, so you're still in the house.

The next turnover cycle/wave for all those properties is just starting, and then there will likely be another few years for the kids those people have to actually hit the school system.

-----------------------------------------

Aside from places having significant population declines (like some of the shore towns, Camden, Sussex Co, etc), I think that's a lot of what's at work in some of these towns.

It seems to me that older towns have had less drastic shifts, probably from not having the same sort of population bubbles.
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Old 08-13-2017, 08:04 AM
 
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There was a decline in the birth rate during the recession which started around 2008-2009. That is likely a contributing factor.
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Old 08-13-2017, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Earth
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the poconos
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Old 08-13-2017, 09:57 PM
 
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I would assume the lack of change or slight decrease is because, frankly, those towns are full. There's no space for new houses as a result of the past 20 years.

Glen Ridge, for example, has a -.07. Well it's probably because someone with kids graduated and someone whose three year old isn't in school yet just moved in. A lot of the usual suspects on here have student changes in the double digits, over six years. That's not really worth getting worked up about.
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