NYC Economic Rebound ? (sales, real estate market, apartments)

[bluedog2]

I watch the sales of apartments in my building and in my neighborhood very closely and the uptick of apartment sales in the last 3 months or so has been unbelievable.In my building,after 2 years where apartments were on the market for months and months and where there were only 3 or 4 sales in a year,5 apartments have sold or gone into contract(2 sales,3 contracts) in the last 3 months.Even in the fevered boom years only 7 or 8 apartments would sell in a year and it's only the beginning of March with the traditional "strong sales months (April through October) still ahead.The Winter is usually dead.

It's not just my building either.The same thing seems to be happening in other co op and condo buildings in the neighborhood.

Is this a good barometer of an improving economy?
Anyone else see any signs or getting a feeling that the NYC economy has taken a sudden turn for the better ? What other signs might there be ?

[newyorker24]

The rent for recent vacancies in my building has increased 10-15% since last year, and they're leasing the apartments faster than before. If the economy wasn't improving they wouldn't get away with those increases.

[Biskit]

I think the economy is definitely improving. You can tell when people start quitting for a new job. I've had about 7 or 8 people in my dept leave for new jobs in the last few months. During 2008 - 2009, no one would dare leave.

Also rent is increasing a bit and brokers are starting to charge fees again. During the recession, no broker would be charging a fee because the supers would be so desperate to fill apts that they would pay the fee and sometimes even a free month on top of that.

[SobroGuy]

I don't believe this is necessarily a barometer for an uptick in the economy. There are always vultures in the market looking for a steal/bargain, and if these units that sold were priced aggressively, that may be why there is an uptick in sales activity, which has no correlation to the economy overall. And if these places were setting record prices, it could be that there might be things happening in the neighborhood, like rezoning or new more expensive developments/commercial coming in, that will inflate prices across the board..and these people know about before others. Which again, has little to no correlation to the economy overall.

All sale prices are public, but it make take 30 or so days to post, and that will provide you a better perspective.

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by newyorker24

The rent for recent vacancies in my building has increased 10-15% since last year, and they're leasing the apartments faster than before. If the economy wasn't improving they wouldn't get away with those increases.

Ya,I think the same thing might be happening with the rents around here.There was a poster on here looking for a 2 br to rent in my neighborhood a few weeks ago so I went to a couple of sights to check what was available and was surprised to see that they were considerably higher than 6 or so months ago.

It's amazing how the NY real estate market seems to change and adjust so quickly.

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by Biskit

I think the economy is definitely improving. You can tell when people start quitting for a new job. I've had about 7 or 8 people in my dept leave for new jobs in the last few months. During 2008 - 2009, no one would dare leave.

Also rent is increasing a bit and brokers are starting to charge fees again. During the recession, no broker would be charging a fee because the supers would be so desperate to fill apts that they would pay the fee and sometimes even a free month on top of that.

That's a really good sign.After I posted this thread early this AM I saw that the national unemployment rate has dipped below 9% for the first time in 3 years.Great news!

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

I don't believe this is necessarily a barometer for an uptick in the economy. There are always vultures in the market looking for a steal/bargain, and if these units that sold were priced aggressively, that may be why there is an uptick in sales activity, which has no correlation to the economy overall. And if these places were setting record prices, it could be that there might be things happening in the neighborhood, like rezoning or new more expensive developments/commercial coming in, that will inflate prices across the board..and these people know about before others. Which again, has little to no correlation to the economy overall.

All sale prices are public, but it make take 30 or so days to post, and that will provide you a better perspective.

LOL,we are talking about co op and condo units in a decidedly not trendy Bronx neighborhood.There is no speculation going on in this market.

The apartments I'm talking about were not drastically reduced at all.Prices dropped very little in the last 2 years here...maybe 10% at most and the recent sales in my building are all in that same range.In other words they are selling for the same as they sold for a year ago.The big difference is that they are moving very quickly.For a while there were some apartments on the market for 9 months or more..suddenly they all sold or went into contract and others that came on the market sold within a month.A big difference .

It's not that they are setting record prices but that they are suddenly selling very quickly at prices quite near the record prices if 2 years ago.

[SobroGuy]

So you are saying you have seen the closing sales price (not the asking price), and they are at or near the record prices of 2007-early 2008?

This also does not have to mean the economy is picking up, it could be the area is being "discovered", or it could mean other neighborhoods have increased in prices recently which makes this area more of a bargain, or it could mean some people got sick of renting and with interest rates super low they decided now to buy.

Some more fevered buying isn't necessarily a sign of an economic rebound, but it certainly does not work against it. At this point I don't see an economic driver that would change the game either nationally or locally, but at the very least I can say we have stabilized, albeit at a lower economic environment. The fact that we still have approximately 400,000 people getting laid off, after we have hemorraged jobs for years, is rather scary.

[bluedog2]

Originally Posted by SobroGuy

So you are saying you have seen the closing sales price (not the asking price), and they are at or near the record prices of 2007-early 2008?

This also does not have to mean the economy is picking up, it could be the area is being "discovered", or it could mean other neighborhoods have increased in prices recently which makes this area more of a bargain, or it could mean some people got sick of renting and with interest rates super low they decided now to buy.

Some more fevered buying isn't necessarily a sign of an economic rebound, but it certainly does not work against it. At this point I don't see an economic driver that would change the game either Nationally or locally, but at the very least I can say we have stabilized, albeit at a lower economic environment.

Yes,there have now been numerous closed sales at less than 5% to 10% below the record highs.As to the apartments that came on very recently and quickly went into contract ,we won't know for sure for another month or so but the asking prices were at or near the pre bust highs and a couple were only on for a month.I can't imagine they sold for much less when they just came on the market and other apartments were selling.

I agree that there could be other factors but still,it has to indicate something about the economy.

[SobroGuy]

More of a barometer I have noticed is the jobs outlook, at least for myself, has significantly improved and have received alot more interest from employers. Of course this is the time when hiring/movement happens, nevertheless I am noticing alot more this year than last..and that is a good sign.