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I'm an Economist and I would LOVE it if even the lowest down the totem pole would make $15 an hour as we all sang Kumbaya together. In reality, though, this is not possible. Well, it is always possible for government to set such a wage floor, but that does not mean that what they intend to happen, will indeed happen.
This is what I predict will take place if a $15 an hour minimum wage is indeed passed in NYC.
1. Fast food joints will push for automation. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to take an order. As has happened in Seattle (a city which recently passed a min wage of $15 an hour), booths at which patrons can place orders will be put up. Paying someone $8.50 an hour may be worth it to take orders, but at a certain point, it will be cheaper to buy and maintain "order booths". Thus, jobs will be lost. Great! So when these automated devices require maintenance, skilled technician jobs will be created to service them! They will also need to be transported which will further fuel the transportation industry. There will still need to be people in the restaurant to oversee these devices to make sure that they are clean and not posing a public health threat: think compliance jobs. INNOVATION, like these automated machines, creates jobs.
2. Fast food joints will go back to hiring college students and even recent grads (and the uneducated will complain about it). Why pay street trash with no education $15 an hour when college students would be happy to do the work for such a wage. This will drive the poor and uneducated OUT of the few jobs they qualify for. This is good, this will force the working class to invest in their education and obtain employment in higher demand industries to remain competitive: community college is virtually free nowadays for most people. But employers won't flock to college grads anyways, hiring managers know that they will LOSE as a result of TURNOVER...the college grads are less likely to stay as long since they are expected to jump ship as soon as something in their field comes along.
3. Less jobs. Less jobs will be available as fewer individuals and chains will be willing to open businesses in the city. Well, if the industry refuses to pay a LIVING WAGE then I guess these kinds of jobs aren't needed anyways; the would just have to acquire skills and seek work in an industry that will pay them acceptably. The supply will need to learn how to market itself for the demand. Think of the sweatshops in the early 1900's, most of those people have adapted to other industries as the work landscape changed.
4. Inflation. With higher incomes comes higher prices and rents which will eventually negate the increased minimum wage. So, in that case, we should abolish the minimum wage and ALL become poor so we can keep inflation down? There are economies in the country with high incomes but lower rents, Houston, Oklahoma City and many down south CITIES come to mind.
5. The lucky few will be better off. As with rent controls, the lucky few will be better off with a better wage, not that they necessarily deserve it. Those who would have moved on to bigger and better things, may not, as they are paid an unnaturally high wage. This may even stunt their growth. I like to call this the "golden handcuffs effect".
What are your thoughts?
Last edited by MemoryMaker; 09-13-2015 at 03:27 PM..
Be careful. We're not too far away from automated police and automated soldiers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by high iron
I see a lot of support for automation of no-skill jobs by people who think that by battling minimum wage increases, they're fighting creeping socialism. It's a vindictive spirit: "so, they think they can force us to pay them more than they're worth? Let's see how they like the soup line!"
Be careful what you wish for. There's a reason that Communists--the people with little spectacles who've actually read Kapital from cover to cover--have always supported all advances in automation and labor saving technology.
This isn't 1840. Masses of people forced out of employment by technology will not be allowed to starve and shiver. What will happen instead, when technological unemployment reaches a critical political mass, is some kind of universal guaranteed income. We're already partway there, if the patchwork of various welfare and subsidy programs is considered as a whole.
Those who believe in the sanctity of the work-ethic, and the dignity of labor, and the great importance to society of getting-out-of-bed-and-going-to-work-in-the-morning, should take the long view and do everything they can to keep the unskilled classes in regular employment, including supporting small wage increases when it becomes politically necessary to do so, as now. This vindictive shortsightedness is only hastening the day when you are surrounded by fat, happy proles whiling the day away on Facebook on their smart phones as they drink malt liquor paid for by the Universal Income Act of 2025.
In general, more automation will create a smaller number of higher skill jobs to replace a larger number of smaller skill jobs. So there will be winners and losers. If, as is likely, the automation is precipitated by the demands for increased minimum wages. the losers will be the ones pushing for the change.
The GOP has been playing a very effective game of "divide and conquer" with the sheeple throughout the years. Abortion, immigration, gun control, racism, class warfare .... heck even gay marriage was one of the tactics they used to separate the American people. Its not that people are plain stupid, but that they are easily agitated and steered. Look at the recent Trump hype - specifically on this board. You have union guys (cops + sanitation) proclaiming their alliance for him; not realizing that he'll shake your hand, smile in your face and gladly take your vote but if the opportunity arose, he'll bend you over backwards and destroy your booty and your union once and for all. It just breaks my heart when people vote against themselves.
As for the $15 minimum wage hike....I can't believe the sheeple who are against it. Unlike OP the Economist and his/her silly predictions I actually know exactly what will happen: https://youtu.be/Fg6J1Skptbs?t=1m18s
Exactly!!! Wish I could rep you a thousand more times!
One of my European friends said to me the other day: Americans aren't actually stupid, they just take the easier path, consume delusions, and there isn't enough decent education to fix this.
New York was once a place where most people existed outside this. No longer true, sadly. New York is now far too much like the rest of America.
Although, we are probably better off than many places in America.
The 0.1% have set the system up so that lower and middle class folk can't compete with their offspring. Their children don't have to worry about paying for college. The lower/middle class are saddled with debt for years after that get out of college. This debt distracts and holds them back from gaining on the 0.1%s children. Assuring that the 0.1% stay on top. We can bail out banks and corporations, but student debt is forever.
The 0.1% have set the system up so that lower and middle class folk can't compete with their offspring. Their children don't have to worry about paying for college. The lower/middle class are saddled with debt for years after that get out of college. This debt distracts and holds them back from gaining on the 0.1%s children. Assuring that the 0.1% stay on top. We can bail out banks and corporations, but student debt is forever.
Exactly.
How is it that people do not get this - in fact, instead, they just kind of embrace their fates as inevitable. Monroe College and all. Even more puzzling is listening to people argue against the evidence.
Increasingly, upper middle class students are overwhelmed with debt as well. Not surprising given the costs of better schools. And it is PRIVATE student loan debt, a lose-lose proposition for students and enormous bonus for the CEOs and "shareholders."
One would think that this alone would demonstrate to any actually thinking person the problems inherent to unchecked profiteering.
How is it that people do not get this - in fact, instead, they just kind of embrace their fates as inevitable. Monroe College and all. Even more puzzling is listening to people argue against the evidence.
Increasingly, upper middle class students are overwhelmed with debt as well. Not surprising given the costs of better schools. And it is PRIVATE student loan debt, a lose-lose proposition for students and enormous bonus for the CEOs and "shareholders."
One would think that this alone would demonstrate to any actually thinking person the problems inherent to unchecked profiteering.
What's funny is that it's cheaper to go to college (as an out of state student!!!) in virtually every other state than it is to go to school in New York as a resident.
What's funny is that it's cheaper to go to college (as an out of state student!!!) in virtually every other state than it is to go to school in New York as a resident.
But it still remains almost impossible for many prospective students.
People should not be held hostage by enormous debt in order to obtain the credentials that will determine the rest of their lives.
Further, this is horrendously bad social planning. People have talents in different directions.
All should be able to develop native talents in order to make a full contribution down the road.
The way things "function" now, people lacking substantial wealth increasingly cannot afford to be social workers, nonprofit lawyers, teachers. Obtaining training is cost-prohibitive and the post-school salaries cannot pay the loan bills. Everyone is being forced into finance, biomedical engineering ...
$15 per hour with a rapidly-becoming-rare FULL TIME JOB is the princely annual wage of $31,000.
Does anyone honestly believe making 31K in NYC in 2016 will cause someone to stop bettering himself.
This is just the smallest drop in the bucket towards society fulfilling it's obligation to make sure it creates an economic system in which inflation doesn't destroy the lives of people.
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