Real estate owners are in Big trouble ! NYC the Next CHAZ (house, to buy)
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Until Covid blows out, prices will go down. Once it does blow out two things will happen. Urban people who fled to the hinterlands will be board stiff out there, and the same and other people will notice NYC has gotten cheaper. By then the cultural stuff and nightlife will spin back up, and the ones who left, or never had a chance to get back in, will flood back. It might take 2-3 years, but the city will come back.
Until Covid blows out, prices will go down. Once it does blow out two things will happen. Urban people who fled to the hinterlands will be board stiff out there, and the same and other people will notice NYC has gotten cheaper. By then the cultural stuff and nightlife will spin back up, and the ones who left, or never had a chance to get back in, will flood back. It might take 2-3 years, but the city will come back.
Well said. This is basically the way I see things shaking out. The almost-suburbanites will make the call that they've been on the fence about. Property prices in the urban zone will go down / people will overpay again to live in far flung suburbs. Then they will remember that NJ Transit and LIRR suck and they don't get to see their kids as frequently when they are commuting, and things will start to re-balance. Could their be a more permanent shift, re: WFH? Yeah, maybe. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Then what are you doing in Brooklyn (if you're still there.)
Note that before covid, the trend was out of rural and suburban areas toward the cities. The only reason NYC had hit the wall was because there was essentially no room left if you weren't rich.
Until Covid blows out, prices will go down. Once it does blow out two things will happen. Urban people who fled to the hinterlands will be board stiff out there, and the same and other people will notice NYC has gotten cheaper. By then the cultural stuff and nightlife will spin back up, and the ones who left, or never had a chance to get back in, will flood back. It might take 2-3 years, but the city will come back.
Excerpt: It might take 2-3 years, but the city will come back.
Response:
You are a realist. Nice job. Insightful.
May I opine... there is another factor to take into consideration.
New York Boomers make up 1.4 million of the 8 million plus population.
The Youngest of boomers will become Social Security eligible by 2026. This will only add to the
exodus from Corona/Policing/Blue State Policies while others are flooding in. I am confident that
of the 73 million boomers living in this country only a handful will remain in New York City. Why?
New York can not even hold a candle to nearby States like Florida, Delaware and Pennsylvania.
These states let retirees hang onto much of their life savings ( fixed incomes ) rather than stripping
it away from them by way of outrageous taxation. All but one of my fellow employees including myself
have left New York City for that very reason. Average Blue Collar private business workers. The boomers
that the city boasts are those that can afford to stay ( city workers on nice fat city pensions/ my experience )
10 grand or more a month and a handful of very poor boomers kept afloat by city subsidies.....Simple mathematics.....
Most Boomers can be found in the following New York City zip codes by ranking:
11234,11236,10025,11229,11373,11214,11385,11235,11 226,11355,11207,11230,11377,10002
totaling 226,673... Mostly middle working class except for one impoverished neighborhood.
The die off will reach huge numbers by 2025 dropping from 73 million down to about 14 million.
Zoomers and Millenials better start pumping out babies if they want to fill those empty homes before
foreign investors scoop them up...........Best wishes....
Until Covid blows out, prices will go down. Once it does blow out two things will happen. Urban people who fled to the hinterlands will be board stiff out there, and the same and other people will notice NYC has gotten cheaper. By then the cultural stuff and nightlife will spin back up, and the ones who left, or never had a chance to get back in, will flood back. It might take 2-3 years, but the city will come back.
Depends on the job market as well. A lot of people who have been laid off may not feel the need to live in the city any longer. In addition, many employees are now considering telecommuting. Others may be scared of experiencing another pandemic like this one in the future in such a dense environment. I was born and raised in NYC for over 30+ years and this pandemic has all but sealed my decision to relocate to the burbs.
When jobs start coming back, the first place they'll come back in here. Companies tried the suburban thing years ago, and it didn't work well. And they're tolerating the work from home thing for now, because they have to. When the pandemic pressure is off, they'll start wanting people back in the office. We saw this pre-pandemic with Facebook. They've since cracked, but again, we'll see what happens when the pandemic blows out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyccs
Depends on the job market as well. A lot of people who have been laid off may not feel the need to live in the city any longer. In addition, many employees are now considering telecommuting. Others may be scared of experiencing another pandemic like this one in the future in such a dense environment. I was born and raised in NYC for over 30+ years and this pandemic has all but sealed my decision to relocate to the burbs.
Suddenly every other person is a real estate expert here
I still remember when everyone said it’s only a matter of time terrorist will attack nyc again.
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