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Yes, we are preparing. The big difference each year as we do this is the level of communication among all the various agencies is so much better. That is so unlike the 97 flood which devastated Grand Forks-East Grand Forks. A lot was learned from that, including issuing more probablistic type long range outlooks. There is no way to zone in one one number....there are many variable which make up a flood, a lot of which are the melt and how fast/slow and storms at the time.
But that said....we have had years and years of above normal pcpn and the ground is saturated. Severe heavy rainfall down in the Otter Tail county area and in the Lake Traverse area make any holding capacity less than in past years at Orwell and Lake Traverse. The weather pattern we are is all suggesting we will have an active and more story March-April period this year as opposed to last year which had a near perfect melt.
So, and I state this as my opinion only, that this year is looking very scary. I would not be surprised at all to see Fargo top over 43 ft.....and GF-EGF over 54-55 ft. I must stress this is my opinion, I dont have any inside info as mother nature decides the outcome. But going with the idea of a wet March-April would lend toward the 5 to 10 pct probability forecast verifying this year.
We will see....even withing the flood protection of EGF I have taken out FEMA flood insurance each of the past 3 yrs. I have a finished basement and a newer home and the 350.00 I pay for it is well worth it for piece of mind.
P.S. I must say the headline in the Forum papers is horrible (at least the one at 2 pm on the web). It says flood forecaster says flood may come sooner this year.... not at all.... In the story the writer was saying we know more about conditions now than in past years...not that it will flood sooner.
Yikes, Dan--that's a bit on the scary side. We did buy flood insurance in '09, and I'll urge my husband to consider it again. We're protected by the permanent **** just south of downtown, but if there was a break we aren't sure that the 114 year old foundation could withstand impact. It's got to fill all of Island Park before we're affected by water slowly creeping up (instead of a torrent).
The reassuring thing in Fargo is that, having learned from the GF/EGF experience in '97, they've pretty well completed protection of the water & sewer facilities to 45'.
Keep us posted, will ya?
Yikes, Dan--that's a bit on the scary side. We did buy flood insurance in '09, and I'll urge my husband to consider it again. We're protected by the permanent **** just south of downtown, but if there was a break we aren't sure that the 114 year old foundation could withstand impact. It's got to fill all of Island Park before we're affected by water slowly creeping up (instead of a torrent).
The reassuring thing in Fargo is that, having learned from the GF/EGF experience in '97, they've pretty well completed protection of the water & sewer facilities to 45'.
Keep us posted, will ya?
I would prepare for at least a 2009 flood....It would take a lot to keep the water below 40ft.... my gut tells me 42-43 ft just because of the pattern we are in and the increased threast for stormy weather come late winter/spring. Now if we have a perfect melt like 2010 then below 40 ft would be possible, but bets are toward the first stormier scenerio right now. That is just my opinion as a forecaster who has been here for 12 yrs.
So I would say if you got it in 09 I would get it this year. My two cents.
I do know the city of Fargo has done more and more each year to protect areas. stay tuned.
What sort of guess would you give us here on the Sheyenne in Valley City?
As well as Devil's Lake levels?
We're looking at flood ins for the first time this year, but since our 100+ year old home is in the 100 year floodplain, it's gonna be pretty spendy.
How did your area fair in 2009....I would say there is a decent chance for 2009 levels which was a record....just over 20 ft there in VC. Problem is so much water upstream on the Sheyenne all year so Baldhill can only drawdown so much for storage. If you weren't in your house in 09 ask your neighbors.
As for Devils Lake...the going forecast is for a 2.5 to 3 ft rise this year....due to excessive moisture and snow. Not good for Devils Lake at all nor Minnewaukan. State water commision folks are preparing for about 1454.5 to 1455 ft lake level this summer.
Here is a story in the Fargo Forum regarding FEMA flood insurance. I encourange anyone who is flood prone to purchase it. There is a 30 day waiting period...so advice is to purchase it by Feb 15th....as the main flood time is in that March 25th through April 10th period.
something to keep in mind is that the flood insurance does not cover much for stuff that is below the ground level. So if you have a split level home or a full basement, A LOT of stuff is not covered down there.
As a side question, I am thinking of getting a backflow preventer put in, and was recommended as a backup to that to get a sluice gate put in in case the backflow preventer fails.
How likely is that to happen? I have a neighbor who has a sluice gate only, but I thought that maybe doing a backflow preventer would work better in case something happens and we are not home?
DaninEGF--
Once again looking to you for an answer:
From this morning's flood outlook:
The Red River in Fargo has a 20 percent chance of reaching 41.2 feet, up from last month’s prediction of 40.7 feet.
If the current amount of melting has no impact on lessening the flood levels, where is all that water currently going? Of course, the local media isn't expalining it terribly well.
Are we looking at Feb/March moisture replacing all that current runoff and then some?
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deadline to buy FEMA flood insurance nears!
