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This oil boom won't go bust. Estimates show the Bakken oil reserves to be many times that of the entire ME combined. As we are able to drill smarter, deeper, and horizontally, oil all across the US is being found especially in this region, California, etc.
Only thing that will hurt big oil is a small group of environmental nut jobs.
Those that have good paying jobs will stay, anyone else will bail. The fact is, if it wasn't for the high income possible due to oil, most new folks had never even considered N.D. And that's the way we liked it....lol
I don't think you remember how desperate most of central/western North Dakota was a mere decade ago when outmigration was so rapid it was forcing school closures. And community budgets were so low they were having trouble operating. Small population is indeed nice, but most of North Dakota was dying...
The state in general did not like it that most folks wouldn't consider moving there. That's why there were so many proposals in the legislature and elsewhere, for bringing in people, and/or trying to retain population that was already there. It was rapidly approaching the point where the state wouldn't have been able to support its own operation.
To the original question, if it genuinely goes bust, there will be a massive out-migration just like there was in the 80s (in ALL of the oil fields around the country, btw, not just Willston). That's just how it works when a large, specific industry drives the economy of a region.
Eastern Colorado, for example, has just experienced this with the recent slow-down in natural gas.
Even if people wanted to stay and find jobs in other sectors, it just wouldn't be possible. No other industry, or combination of, could absorb them all...
However, I think the boom is probably going to cool, but I strongly doubt it'll go bust. I think it'll just level off. There's entirely too much of a global demand for oil now that simply wasn't there in the 80s.
For us personally, no, we probably wouldn't move our entire family up there, permanently or otherwise.
Ironically, for several years, we entertained the idea of moving back up there (pre-boom, btw). But we run a few cows and you can no longer afford to buy land in western ND for as cheap as we're willing to pay. To be sure, we'd never get the mineral rights and that's a deal breaker so far as I'm concerned.
We hear a lot about the oil boom and the huge numbers of people moving into Western North Dakota right now... But once the boom cools off (and it always does), are people going to stay? I lived in Western ND in 2006, just as the industry was starting to get going again. The old timers then told me that they had seen this all happen before...
All of the industry guys are saying that it's different this time, that the boom is going to last for 25 years or whatever, but that's probably what they always say.
I know a large part of the new workforce is completely new to the petroleum industry; will they become "lifers" who will just move along to the next big discovery? Are they just following the money, or will they like ND enough to stay and become permanent residents? The people that got pushed out of their homes because of price increases aren't likely to come back, so someone will have to take their place.
There are lots of examples of oil/gas/mineral towns that boomed, then abruptly busted with little to no warning. Devastation usually follows; the population disappears, real estate values plummet, businesses shut down, and buildings are boarded up. I'd just hate like hell for that to happen again to such a wonderful place.
I agree w/ your last paragraph, which describes exactly what may happen, as history repeats itself. Especially since most folks that have come for the money are doing so to pay off their mortgages in other states. Not a lot of evidence that the newly relocated workers are investing by building or buying homes. Most of the folks driving trucks, and working on rigs will leave when this boom is over. Evidence of that is that most folks are maintaining their families and homes elsewhere. Those folks that couldn't find the pay in their home states are here for the energy boom, and will leave when their jobs end and the dust settles. Those folks that relocated on a more permanent basis, that bring their families, buy homes and sit down roots may stay, they will take the production jobs, which will last longer than the drilling and fracing which is in a frenzy currently. There will be long term jobs in energy, just not on the scale it is now. That's why it's called a Boom.
Still boils down to work....not many going to retire to North Dakota as warmer states that offer a lower cost of living draws most away.
I plan to stay 5-10 years if work is there. I will of course winter south unless working indoors.
Warmer states So, the two choices are desert-dry southwest with constant drought/wildfire concerns or the southeast with constant high humidity and heat! I prefer the northwoods and the cost of living isn't very much higher than the south as long as one is fiscally conservative. Oh, being outside here in the warmer months is actually bearable without feeling like the sun is burning a hole through ones head.
Hubby hauls salt water. We plan to stay until hubby retires (10ish yrs) but would love to return each year to work a few months in the summer. I know a few folks that thought they'd head west, work, and in 2-3 years when they got caught up financially they'd return home. Once they are there for several months, they realize that their return home will have them making half or less than what they are currently making and then they rethink the situation.
We'd love to own a home in ND. The lack of housing is the first roadblock but the bigger factor is the quality. Paying a couple hundred thousand dollars for a PRE-FAB? NO thank you! We will continue to explore our options but for the moment that mobile home will be plenty good enough.
Warmer states So, the two choices are desert-dry southwest with constant drought/wildfire concerns or the southeast with constant high humidity and heat! I prefer the northwoods and the cost of living isn't very much higher than the south as long as one is fiscally conservative. Oh, being outside here in the warmer months is actually bearable without feeling like the sun is burning a hole through ones head.
Fine and dandy for you. But statistics and history show you're not the norm.
We hear a lot about the oil boom and the huge numbers of people moving into Western North Dakota right now... But once the boom cools off (and it always does), are people going to stay?
The question should be, can people stay after the boom? Will there be jobs for them? If the jobs dry up, people got to go.
My family left ND at the end of the last oil boom. When my Dad's business closed, we ended up living only off the wages of my Mother's part time job as a waitress. After a year of that, my parents threw me, my bothers and sister, and everything we owned in U-Haul truck, and we left ND broke. That was the last time we saw ND, except for a couple of visits.
I fail to see what could possibly have changed in ND since then, that will prevent that situation from happening again. I feel personally scared for people who get stuck in ND when this boom ends.
This oil boom won't go bust. Estimates show the Bakken oil reserves to be many times that of the entire ME combined. As we are able to drill smarter, deeper, and horizontally, oil all across the US is being found especially in this region, California, etc.
Thats very optimistic. So you believe that oil reserves are unlimited?
Regardless of how much oil is in the Bakken, what will end the boom will be the same thing that ended the last one: oversupply, and/or a decrease in demand, resulting in a big drop in the price of oil. The more production going on (and there is a lot of production going on up there), the higher the supply. If the demand is not there to keep the supply down (such as in a world economic slowdown/recession), the price falls. Not only that, it's still expensive to to get ND oil to market: fracking and hz drilling are not cheap compared to traditional extraction methods, and the product has to be moved by truck rather than pipeline. Once it is no longer cost effective for companies to produce Bakken oil, they will cap the wells and move on. Just like in 1981. Even if production costs were to come down to match those in conventional plays, oil companies would have to react to the oversupply and/or lack of demand by choking back production at existing wells, and drilling fewer new ones. Either way, the result would be fewer jobs in ND.
Consider this: In 2008, when leasing started to pick up in ND, oil was at $140 a barrel. Yesterday (6/20/12), it closed at its lowest point since October 2011: $81.90. As I am writing this today at 4:45 AM, oil futures are $1.33 lower than that, at $80.57.
The reason for the price drop? Oversupply. Yesterday, last week's supply data was released. It was expected to show a 600,000 barrel decrease in supply. Instead, it showed a 2.9 million barrelincrease. On top of that, demand is forecast to drop over the next year because the economies in Europe and China are slowing down.
I'm not trying to say things are going to go bust anytime soon, just pointing out that booms have a way of ending unexpectedly, and just because the oil is there doesn't mean that the demand is going to exist for it at the right price. Hopefully, the oil companies will do a good job of controlling supply, the fears about the world economy are overblown, and demand won't fall as badly as many fear. We all want to see jobs stay in North Dakota!
I saw they closed at 79 yesterday which makes me wonder why were still paying so much at the pump compared to when it was that price in the past. And how much oil have we been shipping out and selling to other countries? And how many people in MN, ND, MT buy there summer homes and retirment homes in North Dakot ?
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So, the two choices are desert-dry southwest with constant drought/wildfire concerns or the southeast with constant high humidity and heat! I prefer the northwoods and the cost of living isn't very much higher than the south as long as one is fiscally conservative. Oh, being outside here in the warmer months is actually bearable without feeling like the sun is burning a hole through ones head.
So you believe that oil reserves are unlimited?
I saw they closed at 79 yesterday which makes me wonder why were still paying so much at the pump compared to when it was that price in the past. And how much oil have we been shipping out and selling to other countries?
And how many people in MN, ND, MT buy there summer homes and retirment homes in North Dakot ?
