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Old 08-17-2010, 06:47 AM
 
248 posts, read 700,907 times
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When I mean expanding I mean jobs are generated, population goes up, new housing is built....etc....

And why or why not?

Basically what I'm afraid of is a Detroit/parts of CA style situation where jobs dry up, housing costs go down, people go underwater on their mortgage....

I'm considering purchasing a condo but I'm just so afraid of mortgages just because of what people in those areas went through. Even the word "mortgage" scares me. "Mort" is french for death...
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Old 08-17-2010, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,129 posts, read 31,253,676 times
Reputation: 6920
Yes. The government is insourcing a lot of jobs away from contractors which means the Federal workforce will continue to grow. Non-government employers will continue to be attracted to the area because of its relative affluence and highly educated workforce. This is definitely the place to be for the next few years. There's near 0 probability this could turn into a Detroit/CA situation.
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Old 08-17-2010, 07:12 AM
 
Location: New-Dentist Colony
5,759 posts, read 10,725,241 times
Reputation: 3955
Yes, but not as fast. The federal government has continuously expanded since WWII and will keep doing so; thus more will move here for jobs, and more housing will be built. The DC region is a micro-economy that has little to do with the national economy, especially inside the Beltway.

I think more federal agencies will build branch offices (or even HQ) farther from central DC, so there may be more growth in those areas. It's already happening, in part due to BRAC and in part due to a dearth of office space close in, along with unaffordable housing close to DC. E.g., FBI has a big office in Pr. Wm. now; NGA is moving to Belvoir; State Dept has many offices in Rosslyn, as does DOD; FDIC and Fish/Wildlife are in Ballston; ODNI is in Tysons--etc. I think Social Security is in Baltimore. Baltimore!

The other aspect is that there is a big push for "transit-oriented development" (TOD) now from DOT/HUD/EPA. Communities get more grant money if they build mixed-use development instead of detached homes that are not walkable to businesses.

What this means is that you will continue to see more things like the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor redevelopment and the nascent Columbia Pike redevelopment--more infill, more condos and apartments. The older detached homes inside the Beltway will, alas, continue to be lost to either McMansionization or TOD (mixed use). It also means that as they become fewer in number, the smaller homes in Arlington/Falls Church will continue to go up in value quickly.

If you want to follow what's going on re. TOD, from a site that is totally in-the-bag for it, go to www.greatergreaterwashington.org. Even if you disagree with its premises (as I often do), it still can help you follow what's being planned in places like East Falls Church, etc.
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Old 08-17-2010, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
9,779 posts, read 15,790,796 times
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I moved to the DC area in 1989. I have only seen this area expand and housing prices increase except for a few years ago (about 2006-2009), and even then the prices didn't drop nearly as much as in the rest of the country. And within the DC region, housing prices tended to drop faster in farther-out communities. Desirable neighborhoods and towns/cities did not experience the same level of price decreases. I don't believe, for example, that Arlington prices fell as far percentage-wise as Centreville prices. Arlington will always be desireable because of its proximity to DC. So even if the bottom falls out, they would be somewhat insulated. Here in Vienna, our house has only gone down in value about 10% from its high in 2006 to its low in 2010. Compare that to farther out communities in Prince William County where prices may have dropped 30% or more. In good times and in bad, remember that location is the biggest determinant of housing price.
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Old 08-17-2010, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Central Maine
4,697 posts, read 6,448,256 times
Reputation: 5047
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsuric View Post
When I mean expanding I mean jobs are generated, population goes up, new housing is built....etc....

And why or why not?

Basically what I'm afraid of is a Detroit/parts of CA style situation where jobs dry up, housing costs go down, people go underwater on their mortgage....

I'm considering purchasing a condo but I'm just so afraid of mortgages just because of what people in those areas went through. Even the word "mortgage" scares me. "Mort" is french for death...
Yes, the area will continue to expand economically. The federal government is the biggest engine, but by no means the only one. And although the area is not recession-proof, it is recession-resistant.

Also, although I have heard for most of my life that "now is the best time to buy real estate", it may actually be true at this point in time. Prices are unlikely to get any lower, and that's happening at the same time as very, very low mortgage interest rates.

There will always be individuals in the area who struggle, but they are the exception rather than the rule.
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Old 08-17-2010, 08:25 AM
 
5,125 posts, read 10,091,039 times
Reputation: 2871
I don't know how one comfortably asserts that the Federal Government will continuously expand any more than one asserted that housing prices will always rise. It is certainly true that the Federal Government and the related service industries have expanded under both Democratic and Republican administrations, but the past doesn't always predict the future. To me, what bodes better for this region, compared to others, is the fact that it's really become a hub for both well-educated workers and immigrants (many of whom are themselves very well-educated).
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Old 08-17-2010, 10:26 AM
 
Location: New-Dentist Colony
5,759 posts, read 10,725,241 times
Reputation: 3955
Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
I don't know how one comfortably asserts that the Federal Government will continuously expand any more than one asserted that housing prices will always rise. It is certainly true that the Federal Government and the related service industries have expanded under both Democratic and Republican administrations, but the past doesn't always predict the future. To me, what bodes better for this region, compared to others, is the fact that it's really become a hub for both well-educated workers and immigrants (many of whom are themselves very well-educated).
Well, I agree that the past is not a guaranteed predictor of the future--but in this case, I think that the continuous expansion of the federal government since *at least* the New Deal (and actually going back to the Civil War I'm pretty sure) is a good indicator. It's very hard to decommission any part of the federal government once it's created.

I definitely agree with your last sentence. But I think that the reason we're a hub for those people is that there is such a stable and lucrative source of employment here--federal jobs and related contractor jobs.
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Old 08-17-2010, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Springfield VA
4,036 posts, read 9,244,748 times
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I've just come out a period of unemployment and can say that the jobs are definitely in VA and to a lesser extent Montgomery county. I so wanted a job in the city so I could move to the Hill my new fav neighborhood. But most of the good paying jobs were in VA and ultimately I went with a job next to Fair Oaks mall. Also there are a LOT of jobs out by Dulles.

With more companies moving further out and with land simply being cheaper further out I predict that unfortunately this will continue to fuel sprawl. The plans to make Tysons more walkable are admirable but a tad too little too late.

Interviews and work environments outside the beltway seem so much more laidback to me. Or is that just me?
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Old 08-17-2010, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Marshall-Shadeland, Pittsburgh, PA
32,617 posts, read 77,614,858 times
Reputation: 19102
Yes. I relocated to the "Land of Milk and Honey" (otherwise known as Reston) from Scranton, PA in May 2009 upon college graduation, and not only did a pile of my peers follow me down here but every week I field inquiries from fellow Scranton-area natives seeking to relocate to Northern Virginia for employment opportunities. White-collar positions aren't keeping pace with the rising number of college graduates in some cities (especially in the Rust Belt), so these cities continue to experience a "Brain Drain" while Greater Washington, DC is the benefactor. As others have noted the workforce here is brilliant. I feel undereducated here with just a Bachelor's Degree (en route to an MBA or MPA), and I was one of the most well-read in my hometown. The affluence here is overwhelming, as flashy BMWs, Acuras, Audis, Infinitis, etc. literally engulf my Mazda at seemingly every stoplight in Reston.

All I can say is that I hope my generation's planners don't screw up NoVA the way the Baby Boomers and Generation X did (i.e. Tyson's Corner). The future is in mixed-use transit-oriented developments to house more people in less land area. I'd personally LOVE to eschew my vehicle and rent an apartment in Ballston, but even if I were to go in on a 2-BR apartment with a roommate my budget would be rather tight. Prices in Arlington County have remained so sky-high because Northern Virginia doesn't offer enough walkable transit-oriented developments for the demand. What fresh single college graduate really wants to live in Ashburn and work in Chantilly with their "nightlife" being people-watching at Target or eating at Applebee's? I know as someone who lives in sprawling Reston and works in the Tysons Corner neighborhood of McLean I hoof it into DC as often as I can just to walk around and sigh inwardly, wishing I could afford to live there without living in a rooming house sharing one bathroom with three dudes.

Hopefully the NIMBYs in Reston will die off or shut up and finally accept the fact that when Metrorail gets here the community WILL need to increase in density to accommodate more residential growth (in a responsible manner of course).
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Old 08-17-2010, 06:50 PM
 
3,550 posts, read 6,490,393 times
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I hope so, but for the better. Some neighborhoods that were good 20 years ago has since turned to crap.
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