Tysons Failing (Arlington, Springfield, Herndon: for rent, buying a home, neighborhoods)

[robbobobbo]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

I concur the clustering of development early on helped, but that clustering is a factor of said road network. The major difference between the two therefore comes down to VDOT versus not VDOT. A major caveat for Tysons success remains, will VDOT stop ruining things or will they learn from mistakes.

And you've hit the nail on the head. The "said road network" in Arlington meant it was on a human, intimate scale. Each neighborhood was like "downtown, Main Street America" the way Mt. Vernon Ave in Del Ray was and is. They had economic ups and downs over the decades, but there was a base, or framework, to (re)develop from.

The Tysons - Arlington comparison would be more apt if Arlington had first created a successful urban environment at Seven Corners, where the crossroads of Route 7 and Route 50 are analogous to what Tysons will have to deal with.

[JD984]

Originally Posted by robbobobbo

And you've hit the nail on the head. The "said road network" in Arlington meant it was on a human, intimate scale. Each neighborhood was like "downtown, Main Street America" the way Mt. Vernon Ave in Del Ray was and is. They had economic ups and downs over the decades, but there was a base, or framework, to (re)develop from.

The Tysons - Arlington comparison would be more apt if Arlington had first created a successful urban environment at Seven Corners, where the crossroads of Route 7 and Route 50 are analogous to what Tysons will have to deal with.

On the other hand, Tysons is economically successful today and many parties have a major interest in seeing the redevelopment succeed. Some of the major commercial corridors in Arlington were seriously decrepit in the mid-1970s, and it wasn't simply due to the disruption occasioned by Metro construction. The action had moved west and there was a real question as to whether people and businesses would want to be in Arlington again.

In both cases, there was or is a base to build from, but they are not the same base. The realistic goal for Tysons, a major business area, should be to become a better Tysons, not a Clarendon or an imitation of a niche neighborhood like Del Ray.

[robbobobbo]

Originally Posted by JEB77

In both cases, there was or is a base to build from, but they are not the same base. The realistic goal for Tysons, a major business area, should be to become a better Tysons, not a Clarendon or an imitation of a niche neighborhood like Del Ray.

I completely agree, Tysons will be different type of environment and the plan is a huge improvement over what it's been. Will it be what people will want to flock to? I don't know (and by that, I'm not casting doubt, I'm just saying I do not know).

[tysonsengineer]

Robbobbo you hit on an important point. Sometimes we talk about areas as if they are like another area. As you point out, it is very very difficult for one area to mimic in any significant way another area given differing conditions in how they came about. Sometimes planners simplify things by saying it will be like "Arlington" because the buildings will be taller and you will be able to walk more easily, but reality is it will be different.

Tysons itself won't homogeneously change. Based on the current plans coming in it looks like Tysons North and Tysons East are in store for much more change than Central Tysons and Tysons West. Central Tysons will never be able to not have a divide of the Route 7/123 interchange, while Tysons North has only one road cutting through it that is greater than 2lanes each way. Of course, if only Tysons East and Tysons North (about 900 acres) were to develop into a walkable area "like" Arlington that would still be very significant.

[frostopsy]

I kind of wonder why they are on a building spree in tysons at the moment. I know they are building it for future growth, but with all the empty space already (the highest office vacancy rate in decades), the main economic engines in the area downsizing (gov and gov contracting), business seeming to shift toward the district itself, and the culture of downsizing the office space needed through things like telecommuting, who needs all that office space? (I know that's a bit of a run on sentence)

I've only been to Tysons a hand full of times and the traffic was a gridlocked nightmare in rush hour. People have been taking about how great the silver line is, but I think it's a bust. The line only goes in two directions. Toward part of northern fairfax and eventually into loundon, and toward Arlington. I don't see the benefit to anyone not living along that short stretch of line. People in that live in the beltway probably moved there for shorter commutes in the area, not the other way around. Meanwhile the area is going to remain car centric, especially those in far flung areas.

I'm just speaking on my own opinion, but I don't see the benefit to a company relocating or starting up to move to an area in the middle of the suburbs of DC. DC is doing an awfully good job attracting business for the moment and will continue to be a major competitor. The perfect storm of the economy picking up elsewhere in the country while it's dragging here is going to make it enticing for the valued workforce here to pick up and move elsewhere. Not too mention it's still not cheap to live here, I think people would (and I see it at my office) take an opportunity elsewhere for a cheaper cost of living and a competitive pay.

Like I said, it's just my opinion, and i might be wrong about a bunch of stuff. But it's worth the discussion.

[dkf747]

I think traffic there is improved over the past.

[tysonsengineer]

@frost this is the biggest misnomer about what is happening. It is repeated a lot. I often have to clarify it alot.

80% of what is currently under construction is residential, not offices.

That 20% that is offices are either legacy projects from a decade ago (like 1775 Tysons Boulevard) or are specifically being built by the owner of the site for housing themselves (like Capital One or MITRE 4). So office vacancy rates are irrelevant. Speaking of those rates, at metro stations the vacancy rate isn't like the rest of Northern Virginia. Class A office buildings (those that are newer and aren't so old that they are pointless to keep built) have a sub 10% vacancy rate, well below both the national average (16%) and the local averages. That being the case, almost everyone in Tysons has realized building speculative office (that without a specific tenant) is not a smart bet right now, which is why so little commercial is being built right now.

The remaining 80%, is residential, all apartments right now (although I think condos would be wise). Residential is still very hot, despite all the predictions from business insiders that there was oversaturation last year. Absorption is going very quickly. Although the job market slowed down in this area the population continues to grow, and grow faster than construction can keep up elsewhere. Because current generations favor more established areas near metro rather than outer suburbs, you are seeing continued pressure to build more apartments.

What we'll see for the next 5-6 years is mostly residential being built, with maybe 1 commercial project per year, and likely not a speculative one. This also helps with traffic btw, because residential land uses in Tysons will generate much much less traffic than commercial, as those who live in Tysons, or Arlington, or DC, specifically pay the price premiums in order to be either close to work or close to metro to get to work and therefore these areas see two fold increases in transit usage.

Eventually commercial will come back, when it does, we'll see the market switch, or build more commercial along with residential.

Also, I'm not sure I understand your comment about the silver line.

All train tracks go in two directions including those in DC, did you want it to do laps?. It doesn't just connect far flung Fairfax, it connects Dulles (employees thousands) to Reston (the #13 job center in Virginia) to Tysons (the #2 job center in Virginia) to Arlington (the #1 job center in Virginia) and then on to DC... the nations capital and the biggest economic driver in the mid atlantic.

I'd say that's an important stretch of land to connect. Over 1 million jobs along the route of the Silver Line, hundreds of thousands of people live within that stretch. It's no panacea, but its a project that was long overdue when you consider how many jobs and how many people live along it.

[Old Guard]

I cannot see anyone who says that Reston will succeed saying that Tysons will fail.

I think we can all agree that DC and Arlington are hot and I do not see them becoming less so. If Reston becomes hot that puts Tysons right in between and on the same metro line.

I am not sure how it will fail and Reston succeed.

I still am massively disappointed with the choice of above ground metro rail for Tysons.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by robbobobbo

And you've hit the nail on the head. The "said road network" in Arlington meant it was on a human, intimate scale. Each neighborhood was like "downtown, Main Street America" the way Mt. Vernon Ave in Del Ray was and is. They had economic ups and downs over the decades, but there was a base, or framework, to (re)develop from.

The Tysons - Arlington comparison would be more apt if Arlington had first created a successful urban environment at Seven Corners, where the crossroads of Route 7 and Route 50 are analogous to what Tysons will have to deal with.

Glebe road is about 7 lanes and you don't hear people complaining. Wilson is quite big too. Plenty of large road convergences in clarendon.

[Old Guard]

Originally Posted by fcyolo

Glebe road is about 7 lanes and you don't hear people complaining. Wilson is quite big too. Plenty of large road convergences in clarendon.

I am starting to avoid driving in the Wilson corridor now. Wilson and Glebe looks like it is going to be a choke point soon. No more quick in and quick out on the orange line corridor anymore. I have to look for parking and I was in Clarendon a few weeks ago and everything is not shiny and new anymore. In places it looked a little dirty and grungy. It made me feel sad for some reason I cannot put my finger on.