If home prices drop will OC demographics change? (Orange, Empire: homes, incomes)

[antarez]

There are many people that grew up in Orange County that got priced out to the Inland Empire.

Quite a few left for cheaper housing to raise families and many of them still work here.

If jobs remain stagnant and home prices drop it's conceivable that many might move back.

Also with Illegal Immigration being a hot button issue for Republicans this year a win in 2012 will probably bring greater border enforcement and workplace checks through E-Verify making S. California less hospitable for incoming Illegal aliens.

If prices do rebound it could cause some areas to gentrify over time with new more expensive housing replacing old.

That would start another cycle of people being priced out and leaving.

Right now with housing where it's at a further decline would lead to changes.

Another wild card would be further Middle East turmoil or a war with Iran which would cause gas prices to spike back upwards there by forcing many commuters in out lying areas to relocate closer to the jobs they have in Orange County.

Any thougghts on which direction things will take ?

[bhcompy]

In order for any real demographic change base incomes need to rise dramatically or prices still need to fall dramatically. Prices in desirable areas are still double or more the traditional cost:income ratio(~2.5:1). More than likely we'll see a continuation of what we've been seeing for the past decade(those that still manage to afford their homes): people moving from out of area/state/country with enough cash up front to have a manageable mortgage, many of them by selling their previous homes.

[antarez]

Originally Posted by bhcompy

In order for any real demographic change base incomes need to rise dramatically or prices still need to fall dramatically. Prices in desirable areas are still double or more the traditional cost:income ratio(~2.5:1). More than likely we'll see a continuation of what we've been seeing for the past decade(those that still manage to afford their homes): people moving from out of area/state/country with enough cash up front to have a manageable mortgage, many of them by selling their previous homes.

What impact do you see the retiring baby boomers making ?

If they retire and downsize after their kids leave and/or take their cash and retire elsewhere, how will that possibly effect things?

We are in agreement that base incomes would need to rise dramatically or prices would have to fall quite a bit for a big shift.

The coast will probably stay high though. A good deal of OC is already built out and I don't see that much potential for things to be built upwards ( multiple floors ) the infrastructure and roads here probably couldn't handle it too well.