Will house prices ever go down?

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by pdxMIKEpdx

People ARE leaving Portland, but I think it's more because of lifestyle incompatibility than "crime and homeless".

That's a pretty good "catch all excuse" so you can save face and don't have to say that you are the one that didn't fit.

I know there are serious issues, but all in all, I have noticed that when a neighborhood has problems, people in that neighborhood try to fix those problems instead of crying and leaving town.

All you have to do is look at all the neighborhoods that were considered undesirable ten-twenty years ago, and see that they are the most desired neighborhoods now, even with all their "urban" issues.

Woodstock and Brentwood-Darlington are good examples.

YOU ARE NOT GOING TO FIND A BARGAIN in a place you would want to live a quiet life and raise a family.

You might in a place that needs a ten year "social investment" by people that are willing to have a plan and stick to it and make it work.

The Lents neighborhood is a good example, it's a good place for a long term investment.

I wouldn't want to live there now, but in ten years as all the old crappy moldy slummy houses get torn down, new ones get built, more affluent people move in, citizens voices are heard, things will change.

So don't crap on "gentrification". It's improved a lot of Portland neighborhoods.

I am absolutely sure that a lot of you, if you had shown up in Portland in the 70's and early eighties (before Portland was the hip super cool place to live), would have slapped your forehead and turned right around and moved to Seattle or something.

But now, in some of those neighborhoods, a solid house selling for 30k-50k back then would be worth >500k today.

People are always coming and going for a million different personal reasons.

But net migration has been solidly towards Portland over the past 2 decades and continues in 2019. Neighborhoods far and wide are gentrifying rapidly. I drove through Lents not long ago and was suprised to see all the nice new looking apartments along 92nd and Foster and there's brew pubs and coffee shops.

I moved to Portland for college in 1982 and back then there was nothing but hookers patroling openly along E Burnside and Sandy, there wasn't much at all along Division except porno shops. Belmont was mostly dive bars and the only street showing signs of gentrification was Hawthorn.

And yes, Old Town was full of vagrants back then too. In fact there was so much crime that vigilante groups were popping up. Forgot what they were called but there were these bunch who patrolled with red shirts and berets. Yes, rent was cheap but the unemployment rate was about 12%. So you could find a $500 apartment but probably only a $4/hr job to pay for it.

What's new now is that vagrants are expanding outward from the old core inner city areas. They have always been a part of Portland life forever. I remember a restaurant I worked at in Old Town for a short time had drip lines installed along the side of the building to keep homeless off the sidewalks out front. That was around 1984. But what's new is seeing homeless encampments way out in the edges of town like along 205 and in mainly residential areas.

[tw200]

[quote=StealthRabbit;55390540]Investment = Real Estate (as per the topic)
Risk = Real Estate (as per the topic)

As previously mentioned...
[*]If you can't rent it for 1% / month of total purchase price (~10% cap rate)... don't buy it

I know that there are cities in the United States where you can do this. Can you name a single location in the state of Oregon where you would be able to do this? I am very skeptical. Here in southern Oregon, you would be lucky if you could get even half of that.

[StealthRabbit]

I do it on all my PNW props (all are within 5 min of Oregon, in Columbia Gorge. Within 30 min of PDX. But.... As mentioned, I dig up my own deals, never buying something already listed for sale. (To late for a good deal). I have turned down more every year than I buy. Sure it is tough today,. So, You dig deeper. My SIL bought one in yachats, OR a couple months ago. Her 4th in Oregon within 1 yr. K Falls, 30 min west of Eugene, and Newburg were the others. All under $160k, all renting for 1%+. Warning... You won't likely do this in popular spots, but I'm collecting cash for a future place in Portland where I can reap another $500k tax free gain. I have 4 picked out.