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A reasonable guess in my view. The market is due for a correction & probably one on the order of 10%. I don't see any reason we should have a 2008 repeat of 50%.
Two things we know are going to drive the market - interest rate hikes and the election. If Trump wins expect a deep temporary dive.
Other things we don't know. In any case, I don't think it takes a genius to see that Dow 18,000 is not a buying opportunity. Personally I'm waiting for sub-17000 to sink more cash in. I would LOVE 15000 or thereabouts.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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It's someone's best guess.
High probability . A -10% from today's DOW ~18000/SP500 ~2100, isn't that much. A 20% decline would be healthy.
I have been working on this assumption since 01Jan2016.
In the meantime, I've moved from fully invested on 15Dec2015 to just 15% invested to 27June2016. I've also missed the big runup in dividend payers (my normal investment choice) which if I had held my holdings would have easily seen a +15% YTD.
I am moving back into the Market, holding about now about 60% cash, Current holdings are more speculative as I now believe that my original core dividend holdings are approaching full value and I am unfamiliar with the movements & characteristics of the new stocks.
Article hedged it's forecast, "David Kostin and his team, the firm says it expects there to be a pullback of as much as 10 percent in the S&P 500 before it makes a comeback to 2,100 later this year". Last week Brexit episode, would satisfy the prediction.
Goldman is wrong about everything. All of their news predictions are b.s. Whatever they say, the opposite is probably true. My guess would be the markets go up 10% this year, not down 10%. The market will decline once interest rates start rising which is being pushed off to 2017.
Secondly, a 10% is hardly a blip on the radar. Not enough to change investment strategy. If we had a 40-50 % drop like in 2008, then that would be a real correction.
For every prediction, I can find and equal and opposite prediction. My view is not where the market will at the end of this year, but where it will be in 20 years, plus the dividends in the interim. For several years I tried to time the market and actually beat the S&P by 8%--ONCE (2008). Over the longer term, I lost out to buy and hold. God bless those who can consistently beat the market, I can't.
I personally think it's more likely that the market will go south than north at this point, given the turmoil in Europe, the election, the 'seemingly' increased threat of isis and other terrorist organizations lately, etc.
i went to all cash today with S&P at 2100; i may lose out, but it may also pay. i did pretty well right after brexit, making about 6-7k in my 401k with the sell/buy.
10% for the S&P 500 is basically saying it won't do anything. The low in February was 1829.
The market hates change. Now that the Presidential election can be predicted with 90% certainty and it's the bought & paid for status quo candidate likely to win, I don't see anything on the horizon that would provoke a big correction. Of course, something external could happen in China or Europe but nobody can predict that.
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It's someone's best guess.
. A -10% from today's DOW ~18000/SP500 ~2100, isn't that much. A 20% decline would be healthy
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