Quote:
Originally Posted by bukli
people who have no clue what 5% average annual inflation means to your lump sum win, or have a clue what a decent investment MUST pay to be worth putting your money into (ie, 12% per year or just hold gold, it's much safer) or where to find such investments. i've lived all my life on a clear 20k per year. Anyone can do so (in style, actually) in quite a few very nice countries, like Chile, Uruguay, Portugal.
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--The current inflation rate, while understated by the government, is not 5%.
--Most people, especially when they have the time, can find ways to save money they couldn't when they were working. They have more time as well as more energy/mental bandwidth to do so.
--The 4% rule is at least 90% reliable for a 30 year retirement. And the amount you'd need for a 60 year retirement would require taking out only a bit less (say 3.5 or 3.75%).
--You really don't need to earn 12% per year to keep the money growing. A few percentage points above the inflation rate is good enough. Even at 5% inflation, 8% returns should be plenty.
--Since 1926, stocks have returned about 10% per year. A mix of stock and bonds in the neighborhood of 7% to 8%. That covers the super high inflation years of the 1970s and early 1980s as well as the Great Depression years, when stocks lost 90% of their value from 1929-1933 (although we also had deflation during that time, so the real value drop wasn't quite as bad).
--It's not that hard to invest in a Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund plus a bond index fund....or just put it all in Vanguard Balanced Index (60% stocks & 40% bonds--all in one fund). This stuff is easier to do than ever before.
--Gold is generally a horrible investment. It appreciates at about 4% a year, much less than stocks, which average 10%. And yet gold is extremely volatile--much more volatile than stocks. A small amount of gold in a portfolio is fine, maybe 4% for diversification, but more than that is a bad idea, IMO.
--I agree with you on the last part about being able to retire fairly well on 20k a year in some of the nicer 3rd world, lower end 1st world countries. Some people can retire well on 20k a year in the U.S., most notably Jacob from Early Retirement Extreme.