Philadelphia Reverses Population Trend (Penn: insurance, employment, neighborhoods)

[Marius Pontmercy]

From the lowest estimate of the city's population over the last decade of 1,447,395 to the new census estimate of 1,540,351 (I've also seen 1,562,461 ) means the city increased population 2% since the last census and 6.4% from its lowest point.

What does the city-data forum community think of this? Sustainable? Unsustainable? Will the city see this trend continue or is this just a brief aberration. Is everyone going to suddenly leave in the next twenty years making Philadelphia the next Detroit?

[Boompa]

If Philadelphia gets some manufacturing jobs it could be back to the 2.5 million it had when I was a kid

[solibs]

This is a national and global trend being driven by demographics and the information economy and, to a more limited extent (so far), by energy prices. Unless there's a whole lot of high-rise construction all over the city Philadelphia will never get back to 2.5 million. People don't have 4 and 5 kids anymore and don't have the grandparents and an uncle living with them either.

Barring a major energy crisis I think the city population will level off somewhere around 1.8 million

Also, Philadelphia and Detroit is a really tired comparison that has never made any sense. Detroit pinned its entire economy on making cars and car parts. Philadelphia has always had a diversified and relatively stable economy. Detroit is in the arctic 250 miles from nowhere. Philadelphia is in the mid-atlantic 125 miles from everything.

[pman]

Philadelphia's economy actually isn't terribly diversified at this point but the Philadelphia region is. there's no reason Philadelphia couldn't accomodate it's peak population again relatively easily. back then, the northeast was largely undeveloped still. I just don't see an economic base to justify it and given the shrinking private sector job base, the city will have to address infrastructure needs for people to travel to jobs in the suburbs (95 and especially 76) barring electing a new city government.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by solibs

This is a national and global trend being driven by demographics and the information economy and, to a more limited extent (so far), by energy prices. Unless there's a whole lot of high-rise construction all over the city Philadelphia will never get back to 2.5 million. People don't have 4 and 5 kids anymore and don't have the grandparents and an uncle living with them either.

Barring a major energy crisis I think the city population will level off somewhere around 1.8 million

Also, Philadelphia and Detroit is a really tired comparison that has never made any sense. Detroit pinned its entire economy on making cars and car parts. Philadelphia has always had a diversified and relatively stable economy. Detroit is in the arctic 250 miles from nowhere. Philadelphia is in the mid-atlantic 125 miles from everything.

You got me there. I lived in 1100 square feet with an aunt, my mother and sister and my grandparents for a while. Without a manufacturing base none of the older cities will ever be anything. If they want stimulis build factories and rail lines in the cities

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by solibs

Also, Philadelphia and Detroit is a really tired comparison that has never made any sense. Detroit pinned its entire economy on making cars and car parts. Philadelphia has always had a diversified and relatively stable economy. Detroit is in the arctic 250 miles from nowhere. Philadelphia is in the mid-atlantic 125 miles from everything.

Exactly. That comparison annoys me to no end and truly reveals to people's ignorance as far as understanding how to differentiate between the industries that drive each city. Philadelphia's economy (based heavily on healthcare, higher ed. and pharmaceuticals) is FAR more sustainable and much better positioned for the future than Detroit's. It's very desirable East Coast location doesn't hurt, either.

Also, while Philadelphia certainly has its fair share of dilapidated, abandoned and underutilized neighborhoods, it has many more areas that are viable and ripe for revitalization than Detroit does. Don't expect Philadelphia to do any "shrinking."

[DarkWolf]

I noticed alot of abandoned buildings in Philly , that can be turned into retail or low / middle class housing. Philly needs to do to more infilling and attract more business. Also start building and restoring key Tram / Regional Rail lines that would speed up the project.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by pman

Philadelphia's economy actually isn't terribly diversified at this point but the Philadelphia region is. there's no reason Philadelphia couldn't accomodate it's peak population again relatively easily. back then, the northeast was largely undeveloped still. I just don't see an economic base to justify it and given the shrinking private sector job base, the city will have to address infrastructure needs for people to travel to jobs in the suburbs (95 and especially 76) barring electing a new city government.

I disagree with this assessment. If you look at the most common industries among Philadelphia residents below for 2008 (broken down by male and female), you'll see just how diversified the the economy is not just in the suburbs but the city itself. The largest sector cohort of employment is healthcare among females (21%), which really is not dramatically high. Note how manufacturing doesn't make either list, too:

Most common industries for males in 2008 (%):
Construction (9%)
Educational services (8%)
Health care (7%)
Accommodation and food services (7%)
Public administration (7%)
Administrative and support and waste management services (6%)
Professional, scientific, and technical services (6%)


Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Philad...#ixzz0msWE4kbY


Most common industries for females in 2008 (%):

Health care (21%)
Educational services (12%)
Professional, scientific, and technical services (7%)
Accommodation and food services (6%)
Public administration (6%)
Finance and insurance (6%)
Social assistance (5%)


Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Philad...#ixzz0msWKHr8v

[Boompa]

No one is producing a product, that's the failure

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by Boompa

No one is producing a product, that's the failure

...but this isn't 1930 anymore. Other than light manufacturing, the industrial economy is gone and will never come back to the extent that it was 80 years ago. Focusing on service sectors like life sciences, healthcare, higher ed. and now media (Comcast) is a very much the right path for the future and far from a "failure." Boston is a perfect model for that. Not to mention, the impending growth of manufacturing of rail cars (Hyundai Rotem) and solar panels (HelioSphera) in the Navy Yard does demonstrate that Philadelphia has a footing in more sustainable production.