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I care just as much about the quality of the people I live around than just the confines of my gravel/turf back yard and brick privacy wall. When you find out your neighbor paid $80k a decade ago and you paid $300k you'll end up counting down the days when your neighbor eventually decides to cash out and move and a better quality neighbor moves in. I'm sorry if this sounds judgemental but that seems like the reality of the Phoenix market right now. There are a lot of 1960s era ranches that appear to be affordable for someone like me from Denver, but at the same time it looks like these homes haven't been updated in 50 years and I'm seeing a lot of red flags with regards to maintenance costs. When I was visiting Phoenix I had two lyft drivers who drove part time because they had extensive renovation expenses.
If I were to move to Phoenix I'd only want brand new construction to avoid such a scenario.
I bought several homes in 2018 / 2019 because I felt homes were undervalued. Now making out like a bandit with the rise in prices. All my friends / family are amazed I was so prescient about real estate here. It wasn't magic - I could see how Phoenix was so cheap and undervalued compared to pretty much every other place desirable that I visited. Some locals here with narrow tunnel vision couldn't understand that, and now some are paying the price for not buying into the real estate when it was cheap.
Timing was much better there than Denver. Denver had already become unreachable by 2014 with avg home prices in the 400s, so 2014 wasn't enough time to recoup from the recession and save up a down payment for people in my age group. I think there's an overall western migration going on. Maybe Albuquerque is a good buy today as an investment? Not quite there yet in terms of livability but it could be a good investment.
An awful lot of people feel that a price they can't or don't want to pay is "too much".
I could argue that today's prices are at least partially driven by artificially low interest rates that must rise when measured inflation starts to reflect actual inflation. But, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
I thought the same thing. Interest rates were slashed nearly a year ago as a way to stimulate the economy during the COVID scare. This allows easier borrowing for big ticket items such as real estate. As a homeowner, it's great to see the appreciation. Values in my neighborhood alone have been on the noticeable upswing for the last 7 years or so. The question is: how long will it last?
The problem with the Phoenix economy is it's not diversified enough for a metro area this size. It's better in this regard than 15 years ago, but we still rely too heavily on volatile sectors like home construction & seasonal tourism. Because of this, once there's an economic downturn in the national economy, it tends to hit the Phoenix market heavier than in other cities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndroidAZ
Texas sucks, I don't understand why anyone would move there than Arizona. I did a ton of work in Dallas, Houston, Austin, could not get out there fast enough on my weekly flights back home after a long week there. The massive concrete jungle of freeways, the frequent flooding from hurricanes, the miles and miles of nothingness.
Property taxes are sky high. Weather is humid and miserable. No mountain views. I don't understand the draw of Texas.
Arizona is 5-6 hours from the pacific ocean, which is far better than the murkey waters of Gulf Coast. We have beautiful mountains. We have beautiful desert. Why anyone would move to Texas than Arizona needs to have their heads examined in my opinion.
You don't understand why Texas has grown enormously? Obviously, people move there for things like better job opportunities and lower cost of living. The large Texas cities are constantly among the nation's highest ranked for job growth. Both Houston and Dallas are home to more than 20 Fortune 500 firms (compared to 5 in Phoenix). Unfortunately, Texas does have high property taxes, but they also have low corporate taxes & no state income tax. Sure, their weather sucks and the scenery is bland, but intelligent people with goals don't move somewhere mainly for those things. Anybody who moves to Phoenix just because of the weather, the mountain views, or the fact that we're a few hours from the Pacific Ocean needs to have their heads examined in my opinion. There are many other (more important) reasons to move here.
Last edited by Valley Native; 02-13-2021 at 10:37 PM..
I thought the same thing. Interest rates were slashed nearly a year ago as a way to stimulate the economy during the COVID scare. This allows easier borrowing for big ticket items such as real estate. As a homeowner, it's great to see the appreciation. Values in my neighborhood alone have been on the noticeable upswing for the last 7 years or so. The question is: how long will it last?
The problem with the Phoenix economy is it's not diversified enough for a metro area this size. It's better in this regard than 15 years ago, but we still rely too heavily on volatile sectors like home construction & seasonal tourism. Because of this, once there's an economic downturn in the national economy, it tends to hit the Phoenix market heavier than in other cities.
You don't understand why Texas has grown enormously? Obviously, people move there for things like better job opportunities and lower cost of living. The large Texas cities are constantly among the nation's highest ranked for job growth. Both Houston and Dallas are home to more than 20 Fortune 500 firms (compared to 5 in Phoenix). Unfortunately, Texas does have high property taxes, but they also have low corporate taxes & no state income tax. Sure, their weather sucks and the scenery is bland, but intelligent people with goals don't move somewhere mainly for those things. Anybody who moves to Phoenix just because of the weather, the mountain views, or the fact that we're a few hours from the Pacific Ocean needs to have their heads examined in my opinion. There are many other (more important) reasons to move here.
I always hear we have diversified so much here, is that not the case? I’m fairly insulated from the economy at large so I admittedly didn’t realize we still had not diversified much.
I always hear we have diversified so much here, is that not the case? I’m fairly insulated from the economy at large so I admittedly didn’t realize we still had not diversified much.
The Phoenix market has definitely become more diverse compared to 15 or 20 years ago, but it still has a long way to go before we can become more competitive among the top tier metros. In the business arena, we're still seen as mainly a regional hub, barely a dot on the map on the national level, and virtually non existent on a global scale. The rather paltry number of corporate HQs is proof of this. Being a large national/international hub has some downsides, but the positives mostly outweigh the negatives when looking at the big picture.
The Phoenix market has definitely become more diverse compared to 15 or 20 years ago, but it still has a long way to go before we can become more competitive among the top tier metros. In the business arena, we're still seen as mainly a regional hub, barely a dot on the map on the national level, and virtually non existent on a global scale. The rather paltry number of corporate HQs is proof of this. Being a large national/international hub has some downsides, but the positives mostly outweigh the negatives when looking at the big picture.
Guess I will have to do some reading into this. How dependent are we will still on construction and real estate industries or similarly volatile industries? What keeps Phoenix from gaining a more corporate presence?
Guess I will have to do some reading into this. How dependent are we will still on construction and real estate industries or similarly volatile industries?
Highly dependent. According to the last report in 2018, the top industry in the Phoenix market is still real estate at $31 billion GDP. We're so reliant on real estate that if & when the housing market crashes, the entire economy greatly suffers (as it did in 2008 & beyond). Construction is still a top 10 sector here as well. The good news is that financial services, health care, and manufacturing are high on the list, and are fast growing industries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by marinezac
What keeps Phoenix from gaining a more corporate presence?
Our overall objectives. We still have too much of a focus on seasonal tourism (snowbirds), retirees, and those who are seeking a change in the weather/climate. These are things that small cities like Palm Springs or Lake Havasu City rely on, but they're ridiculous and backward for a metro area of this size. As a result, we get a fair share of transplants from places like the Midwest who have little interest in high paying jobs, nightlife, or other big city amenities.
Our focus also tends to bring in the less educated & those with fewer skills. This has been slowly changing for the better in recent years, and our economy is becoming more diversified ... however, it will take a while before Phoenix finally sheds the "big city with a small town mindset" or the "sunny & cheap" reputation we've had for way too long.
We have added warehousing, both data and goods, to our economic base since the recession. Warehousing and shipping are both huge employers in Phoenix now. They don't pay that well - certainly not enough that a typical employee there can even begin to buy a typical home. But, you can see big names on the sides of buildings in the valley now even if all they are is the back door operations of those names. Healthcare has grown as well because so many people moved in and medicaid expansion. But a nurse can't afford a home here on their income alone. Two incomes can do it, but child care costs and student loan payments make it difficult in the starter market which drives the rest - even with two incomes.
The only thing keeping housing affordable to the average Phoenix worker is low interest rates. They will inevitably rise and when they do the bottom will fall out of the boom.
We have added warehousing, both data and goods, to our economic base since the recession. Warehousing and shipping are both huge employers in Phoenix now. They don't pay that well - certainly not enough that a typical employee there can even begin to buy a typical home. But, you can see big names on the sides of buildings in the valley now even if all they are is the back door operations of those names. Healthcare has grown as well because so many people moved in and medicaid expansion. But a nurse can't afford a home here on their income alone. Two incomes can do it, but child care costs and student loan payments make it difficult in the starter market which drives the rest - even with two incomes.
The only thing keeping housing affordable to the average Phoenix worker is low interest rates. They will inevitably rise and when they do the bottom will fall out of the boom.
The first paragraph only describes the area you live in in the SW valley, around me we've had a huge Intel employment expansion, Northrop Grummon just took over two huge buildings, Wells Fargo regional HQ continues to expand along with other financial services in the area, many other tech companies are relocating to the area, etc. It's definitely light years better than 2008, even if it's not the caliber of Austin, which is on the front pages everywhere.
Texas sucks, I don't understand why anyone would move there than Arizona. I did a ton of work in Dallas, Houston, Austin, could not get out there fast enough on my weekly flights back home after a long week there. The massive concrete jungle of freeways, the frequent flooding from hurricanes, the miles and miles of nothingness.
Property taxes are sky high. Weather is humid and miserable. No mountain views. I don't understand the draw of Texas.
Arizona is 5-6 hours from the pacific ocean, which is far better than the murkey waters of Gulf Coast. We have beautiful mountains. We have beautiful desert. Why anyone would move to Texas than Arizona needs to have their heads examined in my opinion.
I think that it is just a matter of preference and sometimes the move is also tied to career. Texas was really popular for cheap housing for a long time and there are a lot of major companies in some of the larger cities. I have been recruited by several companies in Texas but I am quite happy to stay up here in the snow belt. I couldn't enjoy the concrete and hurricanes either I do know colleagues who have moved to places like Dallas, Houston, and Austin and they are happy with their decision so I suppose it must appeal to some people. I have been in all 3 cities for business and they do have a lot of attractions and I didn't mind visiting. And yes, the Gulf water is as warm as bath water during the summer. Quite the shock to someone used to the 70-75 F waters of Lake Erie, lol.
It's not for me either but I've also visited Arizona for an extended business trip and found it to be interesting. I could never deal with the dryness but seeing the desert and cacti was fascinating for someone who is used to humid mixed deciduous/coniferous forests. I can see the appeal of Phoenix as it is laid out very well with good infrastructure. An interesting mix of locals vs. transplants in that area. I also liked the live and let live mentality I found out there. I think the state as a whole suffers from the image that it is a tourism state or place to retire.
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I do know colleagues who have moved to places like Dallas, Houston, and Austin and they are happy with their decision so I suppose it must appeal to some people. I have been in all 3 cities for business and they do have a lot of attractions and I didn't mind visiting. And yes, the Gulf water is as warm as bath water during the summer. Quite the shock to someone used to the 70-75 F waters of Lake Erie, lol. 
