Yet another good unemployment report

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

How many other major metros in the US are currently at all-time peak labor, bradjl2009?

I don't know, maybe two or three.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

It has gone up of course, but the labor force population now doesn't look that much bigger than it was in 2008. I do think it shows our population has gone up but I don't think people are flooding into Pittsburgh and I hope that doesn't really happen.

So what you have to account for is that the recession has depressed labor force participation rates, and while they may be improving a bit recently, they are likely still below normal. Accordingly, our working age population has likely gone up more than a comparison between our 2008 (pre-recession) and current labor force numbers would alone suggest (meaning without this necessary correction for participation rates).

Incidentally, I agree that a huge flood of migrants to Pittsburgh is not necessarily desirable. But I am pretty sure that desirable or not, we are at least looking at a stream and not a trickle.

Edit: Just to put a number on it, the labor force seems to be tracking up about 2.5-3% from the mid-2000s low.

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Incidentally, I agree that a huge flood of migrants to Pittsburgh is not necessarily desirable. But I am pretty sure that desirable or not, we are at least looking at a stream and not a trickle.

It's peculiar how this region that has lost more people than any other major region in American history contains so many people who express the opinion that they don't want to see people move here... I suppose that's the old Pittsburgh provincialism kicking in.

Brian, you of all people are eloquent and erudite in terms of regional demographic and economic indicators. If Pittsburgh regional job growth is robust... the migrants will come... and we are seeing that reflected in the Census migration estimates and labor force growth. Pittsburgh's essentially "top-ranking" performance compared to the rest of the country during this period of global economic malaise only exacerbates this extremely positive trend that has no equivalent in modern Pittsburgh history. When more people move to Pittsburgh... more jobs will be created as a result... it's a cycle. Most jobs are population-dependent jobs (teachers, local govt, most health care, retail, etc.). Newcomers also tend to be more entrepreneurial and productive, and less encumbered by existing regional provincialism.

Bring on the migrants! They will fuel the revitalization of this long-stagnant region.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

It's peculiar how this region that has lost more people than any other major region in American history contains so many people who express the opinion that they don't want to see people move here... I suppose that's the old Pittsburgh provincialism kicking in.

I think it is also based on observing the wreckage left behind in many of the U.S. metros that experienced rapid but not particularly smart migration-driven population growth in the 2000s. Still, in my view that is about having a manageable pace to growth, and also about smart growth policies, rather than concluding all migration-related growth is bad.

When more people move to Pittsburgh... more jobs will be created as a result... it's a cycle.

Yep. Which is generally fine, but I do think it goes to pace--if population growth is too fast, a lot of capital-intensive investment areas may not keep pace, particularly if your state and federal governments are in a contractionary mood. Again, this isn't a reason to think migration-led growth is bad in general, but it is an issue worth anticipating and dealing with to the extent possible.

Newcomers also tend to be more entrepreneurial and productive, and less encumbered by existing regional provincialism.

Of course as a transplant myself, this is an easy sell. But it is also demonstrably true, and it is one of the reasons to think at least some migration-fueled growth is a good thing.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

It's peculiar how this region that has lost more people than any other major region in American history contains so many people who express the opinion that they don't want to see people move here... I suppose that's the old Pittsburgh provincialism kicking in.

Brian, you of all people are eloquent and erudite in terms of regional demographic and economic indicators. If Pittsburgh regional job growth is robust... the migrants will come... and we are seeing that reflected in the Census migration estimates and labor force growth. Pittsburgh's essentially "top-ranking" performance compared to the rest of the country during this period of global economic malaise only exacerbates this extremely positive trend that has no equivalent in modern Pittsburgh history. When more people move to Pittsburgh... more jobs will be created as a result... it's a cycle. Most jobs are population-dependent jobs (teachers, local govt, most health care, retail, etc.). Newcomers also tend to be more entrepreneurial and productive, and less encumbered by existing regional provincialism.

Bring on the migrants! They will fuel the revitalization of this long-stagnant region.

Population loss isn't a good thing, but neither is rapid population growth. You know what they call rapid cellular growth in the human body? Cancer. I'd rather the Pittsburgh MSA grow at a 5% to 10% clip than grow at a 15% clip or greater. Slow to moderate growth is much easier to prepare for and deal with.

[Evergrey]

The last thing Pittsburgh has to worry about is 1990s Sunbelt growth. This is a ridiculous fear. My goodness... we finally have what it appears to be a sustained period of population and job growth in Pittsburgh for the first time in 60 years... and people are suddenly sounding alarms about Pittsburgh becoming the next Las Vegas boom/bust disaster.

And btw... despite Metro Pittsburgh shrinking by hundreds of thousands of people... the developed land here doubled anyways... the worst of both worlds.... more infrastructure... decreasing density... and less people to pay for it all.

The nightmare is over Pittsburgh... you are no longer in last place in terms of people moving here.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

It's peculiar how this region that has lost more people than any other major region in American history contains so many people who express the opinion that they don't want to see people move here... I suppose that's the old Pittsburgh provincialism kicking in.

Brian, you of all people are eloquent and erudite in terms of regional demographic and economic indicators. If Pittsburgh regional job growth is robust... the migrants will come... and we are seeing that reflected in the Census migration estimates and labor force growth. Pittsburgh's essentially "top-ranking" performance compared to the rest of the country during this period of global economic malaise only exacerbates this extremely positive trend that has no equivalent in modern Pittsburgh history. When more people move to Pittsburgh... more jobs will be created as a result... it's a cycle. Most jobs are population-dependent jobs (teachers, local govt, most health care, retail, etc.). Newcomers also tend to be more entrepreneurial and productive, and less encumbered by existing regional provincialism.

Bring on the migrants! They will fuel the revitalization of this long-stagnant region.

It's not that at all. I just don't want an exburb boom to make our ill equipped highways in worse shape. For now at least, a lot of them labor force growth is in Allegheny County and the city so hopefully that continues.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

The last thing Pittsburgh has to worry about is 1990s Sunbelt growth. This is a ridiculous fear.

The more general way to put such a fear would be population growth faster than capital investment and public policy in general could comfortably keep up with.

Personally, stated that way, I don't think that is a ridiculous fear, particularly considering that we are actually going backwards as far as public policy on several important and relevant issues is concerned. And one productive thing to do with such concerns would be to work toward improved public policy trends.

Again, I'm not anti-growth, but I am pro- being as prepared as possible for avoiding some of the problems that growth can create.