City Population Breakdown by Neighborhood 2000-2010; Predictions for 2010-2020? (Pittsburgh: real estate market, condo)

[Jbraybarten65]

Originally Posted by eschaton

From Chris Briem on Twitter:



Amazing demographic transition after only a decade.

He also notes that close to 2/3rds of the county's black population is now outside the city. Another 20 years of this and Pittsburgh will end up whiter than the county as a whole.

I think that's good to see some diversification in the burbs.

[Jbraybarten65]

Taken from a General city forum post.


Another generation of cities is blowing past Pittsburgh (or will shortly)....

20. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metro Area
2,844,510 +4.9%

21. St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area
2,820,253 +1.2%

22. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area
2,673,376 +25.3%

23. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area
2,660,329 +18.6%

24. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area
2,558,143 +19.4%

25. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area
2,512,859 +12.9%

26. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area
2,397,382 +11.6%

27. Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area
2,370,930 +0.6%

28. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Metro Area
2,283,371 +33%

29. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area
2,265,461 +16.1%

30. Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area
2,256,884 +5.6%

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Yep. I'm the only transplant within an office of born-and-bred Pittsburghers. I am much more optimistic/idealistic about this city than any of them seem to be.

I've always been a realist/optimist on growth here and I've never lived outside Allegheny County. Honestly, I think a lot of the older types (eriedude) just don't want major change (and I can see why, its a great place here). I want slow sustainable growth, but having a huge surge in population can permanently change an area for good - I think a lot of those types fear that happening.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Jbraybarten65

Taken from a General city forum post.


Another generation of cities is blowing past Pittsburgh (or will shortly)....

I'm just relishing in the fact that we are net positive. That alone is an amazing statistic - and I've waited my 30 years to see it happen.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Yep. I'm the only transplant within an office of born-and-bred Pittsburghers. I am much more optimistic/idealistic about this city than any of them seem to be.

Am I right to bet most of them never really travel anywhere besides their once a week trip to the beach or Lake Erie?

[RetireinPA]

Originally Posted by speagles84

I've always been a realist/optimist on growth here and I've never lived outside Allegheny County. Honestly, I think a lot of the older types (eriedude) just don't want major change (and I can see why, its a great place here). I want slow sustainable growth, but having a huge surge in population can permanently change an area for good - I think a lot of those types fear that happening.

pitt, has been shrinking in some form all my life. I think it will eventually 'right size' itself, significantly smaller than it is now IN city limits, but perhaps growing slightly outside limits and growing greatly in the burbs across the county line.


what we had was a city with housing and things to support all the workers for workplaces that no longer exist. If we move/have moved/will move to a 'technology center' (whatever that is) the number of heads required to support it will always be smaller than the number of heads required to be a 'steel city'


it is what it is.


so, your coworkers are pessimistic? they got reason to be

[RetireinPA]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Am I right to bet most of them never really travel anywhere besides their once a week trip to the beach or Lake Erie?

omg, I mention this all the time. MY experience tells me that most pittsburgh-ers dont travel well. they never really go much further than the 'country' in the laurels... to the point I think its almost a UNIQUE quality about pittsburgh-ers.


Im not saying that they have never left the 152xx zip code, sure mebbe a trip to aunt methyl in cali once, but its not a regularity.

[eschaton]

Okay, it took some time, but I managed to crunch the numbers by census tract. This doesn't give us neighborhood-level granularity everywhere. I believe that all Pittsburgh neighborhoods were based upon census tracts back in 2000, but the Census has been merging low-population tracts for some time, meaning I can't crunch the numbers of the smaller neighborhoods. on the other hand, some of the bigger neighborhoods can be given added granularity here. It looks like the actual boundaries changed a bit (beyond mergers) in Lincoln-Lemington-Belmar and the South Side Slopes, so those numbers may be off.

For every tract, I listed the numeric gain/loss. The map also uses blue and red to signify percentage gains and losses, with darker shades of red meaning deeper losses, and darker shades of blue bigger gains. Colors are in 5% increments.



Going round the city:

Central: Simply massive growth in Downtown and the Strip District. Surprisingly there was some growth in parts of the Hill District, but this was canceled out by losses elsewhere. Oakland's gains were more mediocre than I had expected, which may have to do with the pandemic and less students being in housing. Uptown had a big decline, which is probably due to variance in the population of the County Jail.

Upper East End: Notable nodes of growth in Lower/Central Lawrenceville, East Liberty, Bakery Square area, and parts of Bloomfield (by the new apartment building. Garfield came very close to growing, which really surprised me. The Greater Homewood area continued to hemorrhage population however, other than Homewood South, where the new construction came very close to ending the decline.

Lower East End: Overall modest growth here. The large growth in a portion of North of Forbes surprised me. This is the area around Chatham's campus, and may have to do with student housing. The most student-slummy portion of Squirrel Hill shrunk a bit, but the rest grew. Greenfield as a whole came very close to growing. Hazelwood is still declining significantly.

South Pittsburgh: As expected, little to no growth outside of South Side Flats, but the rate of decline was lower than I expected. Carrick actually gained population - I have to wonder if the Nepalese refugees played a role, as the tract with significant growth is now the most Asian part of Carrick (8.7%).

West End: Shockingly, the Greater West End grew over the last decade - albeit only by 7 people. It's hard to say where this growth was with the data I have, because so many neighborhoods are merged by the Census in the West End.

North Side: Very disappointing numbers overall, even taking out of consideration the massive decline caused by the closure of SCI prison. It looks like the additional inhabited apartment in Allegheny Center did cause significant growth - and unlike what I said last night, Central North Side did grow a bit. But almost everywhere else in the North Side experienced steep declines. I'm not sure what's going on in the tract which includes Northview Heights and Summer Hill. There was a new mini-development in Summer Hill this decade, but I thought it only had maybe two dozen houses. I suppose more people are living in Northview Heights? Most of the North Side seems to have declined at a rate between 5% and 10% for the decade, with Fineview declining more (due to the paring down of Allegheny Dwellings) and Brighton Heights and Marshall Shadeland (excepting the prison) declining by less.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by RetireinPA

pitt, has been shrinking in some form all my life. I think it will eventually 'right size' itself, significantly smaller than it is now IN city limits, but perhaps growing slightly outside limits and growing greatly in the burbs across the county line.


what we had was a city with housing and things to support all the workers for workplaces that no longer exist. If we move/have moved/will move to a 'technology center' (whatever that is) the number of heads required to support it will always be smaller than the number of heads required to be a 'steel city'


it is what it is.


so, your coworkers are pessimistic? they got reason to be

Your comprehension skills are misleading you. The city only lost 2,000 residents versus the 40,000 it lost 2000-2010 and moreso before that. Butler County and Washington County combined didn't gain half the residents Allegheny County did.



So what you should have said is, "The city has stopped hemorrhaging people, the core county growth has picked up significantly, and the outer burbs across the line are only growing minimally now".

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Okay, it took some time, but I managed to crunch the numbers by census tract. This doesn't give us neighborhood-level granularity everywhere. I believe that all Pittsburgh neighborhoods were based upon census tracts back in 2000, but the Census has been merging low-population tracts for some time, meaning I can't crunch the numbers of the smaller neighborhoods. on the other hand, some of the bigger neighborhoods can be given added granularity here. It looks like the actual boundaries changed a bit (beyond mergers) in Lincoln-Lemington-Belmar and the South Side Slopes, so those numbers may be off.

For every tract, I listed the numeric gain/loss. The map also uses blue and red to signify percentage gains and losses, with darker shades of red meaning deeper losses, and darker shades of blue bigger gains. Colors are in 5% increments.



Going round the city:

Central: Simply massive growth in Downtown and the Strip District. Surprisingly there was some growth in parts of the Hill District, but this was canceled out by losses elsewhere. Oakland's gains were more mediocre than I had expected, which may have to do with the pandemic and less students being in housing. Uptown had a big decline, which is probably due to variance in the population of the County Jail.

Upper East End: Notable nodes of growth in Lower/Central Lawrenceville, East Liberty, Bakery Square area, and parts of Bloomfield (by the new apartment building. Garfield came very close to growing, which really surprised me. The Greater Homewood area continued to hemorrhage population however, other than Homewood South, where the new construction came very close to ending the decline.

Lower East End: Overall modest growth here. The large growth in a portion of North of Forbes surprised me. This is the area around Chatham's campus, and may have to do with student housing. The most student-slummy portion of Squirrel Hill shrunk a bit, but the rest grew. Greenfield as a whole came very close to growing. Hazelwood is still declining significantly.

South Pittsburgh: As expected, little to no growth outside of South Side Flats, but the rate of decline was lower than I expected. Carrick actually gained population - I have to wonder if the Nepalese refugees played a role, as the tract with significant growth is now the most Asian part of Carrick (8.7%).

West End: Shockingly, the Greater West End grew over the last decade - albeit only by 7 people. It's hard to say where this growth was with the data I have, because so many neighborhoods are merged by the Census in the West End.

North Side: Very disappointing numbers overall, even taking out of consideration the massive decline caused by the closure of SCI prison. It looks like the additional inhabited apartment in Allegheny Center did cause significant growth - and unlike what I said last night, Central North Side did grow a bit. But almost everywhere else in the North Side experienced steep declines. I'm not sure what's going on in the tract which includes Northview Heights and Summer Hill. There was a new mini-development in Summer Hill this decade, but I thought it only had maybe two dozen houses. I suppose more people are living in Northview Heights? Most of the North Side seems to have declined at a rate between 5% and 10% for the decade, with Fineview declining more (due to the paring down of Allegheny Dwellings) and Brighton Heights and Marshall Shadeland (excepting the prison) declining by less.

Fantastic! Thanks so much!

Wow. +1,130 people in a tiny East End census tract that looks like it aligns with the additions of EastSide Bond and Bakery Living, perhaps?

There aren't many surprises here for me. I am puzzled also by the large growth in Northview Heights. Polish Hill, Regent Square, and Morningside seem to be following in the footsteps of Allegheny West in that they are getting less populated as they become more affluent and multi-unit properties are being reverted back to single-family dwellings. Upper Lawrenceville should grow from 2020-2030, I would think, with the Mews on Butler and I'm sure at least one or two other larger projects that will be built there by 2030 given current trends.

The Strip and Downtown adding a combined 4,000+ residents over the last decade is fantastic! I hope they can top that with 5,000+ residents combined from 2020-2030! I am surprised the Mexican War Streets grew. I would have expected them to decline in the same fashion as Morningside, Allegheny West, and Polish Hill since they are continuing to become more affluent. There must be a lot of infill there I haven't been paying attention to. It will likely grow again from 2020-2030 as the Garden Theater project finally gets underway. Troy Hill losing 203 people is surprising for sure. Not sure what happened there unless it is going the way of Polish Hill, Morningside, Allegheny West, etc. with shrinkage due to the neighborhood gentrifying more and pushing more families with children out.