City Population Breakdown by Neighborhood 2000-2010; Predictions for 2010-2020? (Pittsburgh: new house, live in)

[Reggiezz]

Most of the population of the city in say 1950 were children. People have fewer kids now and most parents don't want to live in the city. Until you can convince the woke 20 somethings to start birthing large numbers of kids, then convince them to stay put, all the change in the census numbers is just temporary noise.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

Most of the population of the city in say 1950 were children. People have fewer kids now and most parents don't want to live in the city. Until you can convince the woke 20 somethings to start birthing large numbers of kids, then convince them to stay put, all the change in the census numbers is just temporary noise.

The decline in fertility isn't about "wokeness" really. It's being felt across the U.S. Populations are now shrinking in highly-desirable coastal suburbs around the country for this reason. And black fertility rates are almost as low as white fertility rates.

Basically (with immigration having slowed to a crawl) the only way that a city can experience a growth in population now is to have a growth in the number of housing units which is large enough to cancel out the decline in average household size.

[gg]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Tomorrow is the day we finally find out where the city, county and region stand. Does the city maintain or is it in steep decline. We will see soon

I can see it now. You are so excited and probably can't sleep at night like a small child on Christmas Eve waiting and hoping Pittsburgh is in sharp decline. You have been talking about it for years and your day is finally here. This is your Christmas Day. You can't contain yourself with glee.

Hilarious really. No one else really cares much. I'll take 290,000 wealthier hard working people over a bunch of subsidized people not pulling their own weight in the easiest country to succeed on earth.

You day is here though. I can feel your excitement even over the computer screen.

[Reggiezz]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The decline in fertility isn't about "wokeness" really. It's being felt across the U.S. Populations are now shrinking in highly-desirable coastal suburbs around the country for this reason. And black fertility rates are almost as low as white fertility rates.

Basically (with immigration having slowed to a crawl) the only way that a city can experience a growth in population now is to have a growth in the number of housing units which is large enough to cancel out the decline in average household size.

Let's say 50,000 immigrants are moved to Pittsburgh next year. What percentage would move inside the city limits as opposed to suburbs? I don't think it would be high for the same reasons most families in Allegheny County live in the suburbs.

And you're right, you'll never convince 20 somethings to have large families.

So what does that leave for growth?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

Let's say 50,000 immigrants are moved to Pittsburgh next year. What percentage would move inside the city limits as opposed to suburbs? I don't think it would be high for the same reasons most families in Allegheny County live in the suburbs.

First, it's worth noting Pittsburgh actually has a higher percentage foreign born (9%) than the county as a whole (6.4%). Of course, only an estimated 27,000 immigrants live in the city, while another 60,000 live outside, meaning it's indeed true most immigrants are outside the city - though it's less than you would think when you consider 3/4ths of the total population of the city is outside the county.

Admittedly, I would hazard a guess that more than half of the city's foreign born population is associated with the universities, and most of them are transitory college/grad students who will not put down roots.

The city has gotten little in the way of low-wage immigrants over the last century, which is unfortunate. For example, if you look at other cities that benefitted from the big boost in Latino migration for in the late 20th century, Latino neighborhoods have generally held up well both in terms of population density and structural density. They can be a bit run down looking, but they're seldom actually blighted, with almost every home occupied. Pittsburgh got a little bit of this with the Butanese refugees settling in Carrick, where they helped stabilize the neighborhood a bit (though they are now suburbanizing into Brentwood as they get more established). But I have no doubt that if we were more of an immigrant draw you would see more immigrants settle in city neighborhoods with decent bus access which were very affordable, which would help stop areas like Knoxville and Sheraden from declining so rapidly.

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

And you're right, you'll never convince 20 somethings to have large families.

So what does that leave for growth?

There is no evidence that policy can meaningfully cause the birth rate to rise - or for that matter, the death rate to fall - in the near term. Migration is the one thing we have some measure of control over when it comes to policy. Let more people into the U.S. (and tweak the system to favor higher-skill migrants) and attempt to attract domestic migrants as well.

[Reggiezz]

Eschaton, Pittsburgh reinvented itself many times. Our first industry was steamship and canal building. Then glass and steel. Now we're dependent on federal largess for education and Healthcare industries. They're not self sustaining without federal money.

The answer is jobs and opportunity, not subsidizing low wage immigrants, thus becoming even more of a city of dependents.

I don't know if you realize it, but both UPMC and AHN have been on a facility building spree in the suburbs. The city will no longer be the epicenter of the health industry here. That's gonna hurt.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

Eschaton, Pittsburgh reinvented itself many times. Our first industry was steamship and canal building. Then glass and steel. Now we're dependent on federal largess for education and Healthcare industries. They're not self sustaining without federal money.

You can say the exact same thing about Boston, and no one calls it a failing city. Fact of the matter is the U.S. doesn't really make that much any longer. It's not like you can point to a Sun-Belt city like Charlotte, Phoenix, or Nashville and actually point to any sort of definable manufacturing base.

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

The answer is jobs and opportunity, not subsidizing low wage immigrants, thus becoming even more of a city of dependents.

It's true that it's hard for an area to grow without jobs. Pretty much the only way for an area to grow without a good job market is if it markets itself as some sort of semi-tourist destination for wealthy retirees and people who want second homes. And places that do this end up pretty toxic to live for locals because the housing prices get jacked up beyond what the local job market can provide for. Not an option for a city the size (or location) of Pittsburgh anyway.

Growing areas also attract immigrants of all sorts. Lots of low-wage immigrants work pretty marginal jobs in high-cost areas (health aides, landscaping, etc.) because the local job market is strong enough that not enough native-born people want to do the jobs.

Originally Posted by Reggiezz

I don't know if you realize it, but both UPMC and AHN have been on a facility building spree in the suburbs. The city will no longer be the epicenter of the health industry here. That's gonna hurt.

And at the same time firms like Phillips and Bombardier have been closing down their suburban office locations. I mean, I don't have a crystal ball here - and the pandemic has scrambled everything - but in general there is no reason to think the Pittsburgh suburbs as a whole will have a brighter future than the city. Indeed, one of the things that makes Pittsburgh so anomalous for a city of its size/region is how many rich city neighborhoods we have, along with how many poor suburbs (nearly everything east of the city between the rivers is declining in desirability).

[Paul2421]

Originally Posted by eschaton

You can say the exact same thing about Boston, and no one calls it a failing city. Fact of the matter is the U.S. doesn't really make that much any longer. It's not like you can point to a Sun-Belt city like Charlotte, Phoenix, or Nashville and actually point to any sort of definable manufacturing base.



It's true that it's hard for an area to grow without jobs. Pretty much the only way for an area to grow without a good job market is if it markets itself as some sort of semi-tourist destination for wealthy retirees and people who want second homes. And places that do this end up pretty toxic to live for locals because the housing prices get jacked up beyond what the local job market can provide for. Not an option for a city the size (or location) of Pittsburgh anyway.

Growing areas also attract immigrants of all sorts. Lots of low-wage immigrants work pretty marginal jobs in high-cost areas (health aides, landscaping, etc.) because the local job market is strong enough that not enough native-born people want to do the jobs.



And at the same time firms like Phillips and Bombardier have been closing down their suburban office locations. I mean, I don't have a crystal ball here - and the pandemic has scrambled everything - but in general there is no reason to think the Pittsburgh suburbs as a whole will have a brighter future than the city. Indeed, one of the things that makes Pittsburgh so anomalous for a city of its size/region is how many rich city neighborhoods we have, along with how many poor suburbs (nearly everything east of the city between the rivers is declining in desirability).

those places moved because of the decrease in desirabilility of the areas they were in. the city was the best place to keep the employees they already had semi happy.

[Reggiezz]

It's true about the eastern suburbs in Allegheny County. And a lot of places south of Allegheny County are creepy too.

You accidentally hit the nail on the head when you said we don't make things anymore. Eventually that will change again, but I won't live long enough to see the rebuilding of our economy. That transition will be very painful.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Paul2421

those places moved because of the decrease in desirabilility of the areas they were in. the city was the best place to keep the employees they already had semi happy.

Indeed. I am not saying the future of the city will all be roses, but from an employment standpoint, I think it looks better than the future of suburban jobs.

As I noted earlier in the summer, if you are given the choice to go back to work in person, you're probably more liable to do so if you work in town, because it's more likely to be a better commute than cross-suburbs, and at least there's some stuff to do around the office at lunch time or after work.