Is the Poor Economic Performance Really "Unexpected"? (Corporate Profits, McCain, unemployment)

[DRob4JC]

"Unexpectedly" Compilation

Whenever poor business, house, or job news comes out, they are quick to throw on the word "unexpectedly," pretending that the economy is actually doing great, but this one time it hiccupped.

...
So, I decided to take some time and compile some of the "unexpectedlies" from the start of the year until today.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls to Six-Month Low on Job Outlook, from Bloomberg, May 31, 2011

US Q4 growth unexpectedly revised down, from EuroNews, February 25, 2011

U.S. Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly, from Industry Week, March 24, 2011

US Services Economy Slowed Unexpectedly in March: ISM (http://www.cnbc.com/id/42432468/US_Services_Economy_Slowed_Unexpectedly_in_March_I SM - broken link), from MSNBC, April 5, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump, Reflecting Quarter-End Volatility, from Bloomberg, April 14, 2011

"Core U.S. producer prices rose slightly faster than expected (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Core-producer-prices-jobless-rb-3400277680.html?x=0 - broken link)," from Reuters, April 14, 2011

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to Decade Low, from Bloomberg, from February 1, 2011

U.S. initial jobless claims rise unexpectedly, from Forexpros, June 23, 2011

"Unexpectedly weak economic data," from Economics Newspaper, from April 2011

U.S. Economy: Goods Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Claims Drop, from Bloomberg, March 24, 2011

Orders for Manufactured Goods Fall Unexpectedly, from the New York Times, March 24, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in January," from Bloomberg, January 14, 2011

"Initial Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly," from Reuters, April 28, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December," from Bloomberg Businessweek, January 3, 2011

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to Three-Month High, from Money News, April 28, 2011

U.S. Economy: Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to 6-Month Low, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 31, 2011

U.S. initial unemployment claims unexpectedly soars, from World Bank, May 5, 2011

Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 10.6%, Pointing to More Construction Woes, from Money News, May 19, 2011

Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May, from USA Today, May 31, 2011

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased to 424,000 Last Week, from Bloomberg, May 26, 2011

"New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to 424,000 last week (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43179580/Stubborn_Jobless_Claims_Still_Keep_On_Climbing_Hig her - broken link)," from CNBC, May 26, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

U.S. Economy: Previously Owned Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 19, 2011

US Q1 corporate profits drop unexpectedly (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/US-profits-drop-1st-qtr-GDP-unrevised-at-up-18-pct-H8H3C?opendocument&src=rss - broken link), from Business Speculator, May 26, 2011

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump on One-Time Events, from Bloomberg, May 5, 2011

"Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly stalled in April and housing starts dropped," from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 17, 2011

In case you didn't notice, quotation marks denotes quotes from articles.

Update- More headlines and quotes:

"Wall Street tumbled at Thursday’s opening bell after the government reported an unexpectedly sharp jump in unemployment claims," from MSNBC, June 23, 2011

"The Federal Reserve stayed the course on monetary policy Wednesday, citing "likely" temporary factors for the unexpectedly sluggish growth in the US economy," from MSN, June 22, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

"The dollar slumped on Friday after a government report showed an unexpectedly small amount of hiring in May," from MSN, June 4, 2011

"The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 13 in June from 16 in May," from the Financial Times, Jue 15, 2011

"The jobless rate, which is obtained from a separate household survey, unexpectedly rose to 9.1 percent in May (http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpps/money/economy-taking-%27a-while%27-to-mend%2C-obama-says-dpgonc-20110603-to-_13516904 - broken link)," from Fox Philadelphia, June 3, 2011

U.S. jobless claims rises unexpectedly (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-jobless-claims-rises-unexpectedly/article2053268/ - broken link), from the AP, June 9, 2011

"Consumer confidence unexpectedly decreased in May," from Bloomberg, June 13, 2011

"An unexpected jump in claims for unemployment benefits (http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_18337027?source=rss - broken link)," from the AP, June 23, 2011

And a few that, instead of using "unexpected," use "more than expected:"

Jobless claims rise more than expected, Reuters, June 23, 2011

Economy cools more than expected, rattling stock market, from the Christian Science Monitor, June 1, 2011

US Economy Growing Slower Than Expected, from the Money Times, June 23, 2011

US home sales fall more than expected, from the Financial Times, March 21, 2011

U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March, from MSNBC, May 11, 2011

US GDP Growth Slows More Than Expected, from Sky News, April 28, 2011

Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, from Industry Week, March 10, 2011



What kind of "expert" are you if you are continuously surprised by outcomes?

[SourD]

These people are one of two things:

1. Dumb as stumps
2. Lying scumbags

Both seem to fit, but I am leaning more towards number 2.

[AeroGuyDC]

Liberals "unexpectedly" found out they elected someone with ZERO business acumen....ZERO economic acumen...ZERO anything really......and then made the rest of us suffer through crew of worthless cabinet appointments who didn't EXPECT to have to make decisions that they weren't qualified to do.

Thanks to Tax Cheat Tim Geitner, I unexpectedly found another liberal to hate.

[Ferd]

Our economy is in the hands of these rubes. and we wonder why it stinks?

For those who see edumcation as a panacea, these are the most educated Ivy League leaders the world has ever seen and they have been running things for a while now.

[Swingblade]

These were the same experts that were "unexpectedly" surprised when the crash took place in 08. The same ones that were telling Bush/McCain that " the fundamentals of the economy are strong" Or were influenced by Uncle Ben that said the crash " hit him like a freight train"

Funny how the others that were predicting the crash were mocked by the MSM such as Schiff/Paul and others. Yep the world is upside down, is it possible for me to fall off?

[C.C]

Part of the problem is that an "expected" number is just an average of estimates made by a bunch of "experts". The "expected" result really should be a range, not a single figure. Sometimes the estimates are all in a tight grouping, so even a small deviation outside the grouping could qualify as unexpected. Other time the estimates are all over the map - a pretty good indication that nobody really knows what to expect.

Watch the experts scramble to revise their GDP forecast in the last few day before it's released as they try to incorporate all the last-minute data. It all seems pretty silly - who cares what those final revisions are when the real number is going to be available in a day or two anyway? And what if the result exactly matches the week-old forecast rather than the final one? Does that count as expected or unexpected?

[oz in SC]

Originally Posted by SourD

These people are one of two things:

1. Dumb as stumps
2. Lying scumbags

Both seem to fit, but I am leaning more towards number 2.

ROFLMAO....

[dreamofmonterey]

Originally Posted by DRob4JC

"Unexpectedly" Compilation

Whenever poor business, house, or job news comes out, they are quick to throw on the word "unexpectedly," pretending that the economy is actually doing great, but this one time it hiccupped.

...
So, I decided to take some time and compile some of the "unexpectedlies" from the start of the year until today.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls to Six-Month Low on Job Outlook, from Bloomberg, May 31, 2011

US Q4 growth unexpectedly revised down, from EuroNews, February 25, 2011

U.S. Factory Orders Drop Unexpectedly, from Industry Week, March 24, 2011

US Services Economy Slowed Unexpectedly in March: ISM (http://www.cnbc.com/id/42432468/US_Services_Economy_Slowed_Unexpectedly_in_March_I SM - broken link), from MSNBC, April 5, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump, Reflecting Quarter-End Volatility, from Bloomberg, April 14, 2011

"Core U.S. producer prices rose slightly faster than expected (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Core-producer-prices-jobless-rb-3400277680.html?x=0 - broken link)," from Reuters, April 14, 2011

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to Decade Low, from Bloomberg, from February 1, 2011

U.S. initial jobless claims rise unexpectedly, from Forexpros, June 23, 2011

"Unexpectedly weak economic data," from Economics Newspaper, from April 2011

U.S. Economy: Goods Orders Unexpectedly Fall, Claims Drop, from Bloomberg, March 24, 2011

Orders for Manufactured Goods Fall Unexpectedly, from the New York Times, March 24, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in January," from Bloomberg, January 14, 2011

"Initial Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly," from Reuters, April 28, 2011

"Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in December," from Bloomberg Businessweek, January 3, 2011

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise to Three-Month High, from Money News, April 28, 2011

U.S. Economy: Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to 6-Month Low, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 31, 2011

U.S. initial unemployment claims unexpectedly soars, from World Bank, May 5, 2011

Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 10.6%, Pointing to More Construction Woes, from Money News, May 19, 2011

Consumer confidence falls unexpectedly in May, from USA Today, May 31, 2011

Unemployment Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased to 424,000 Last Week, from Bloomberg, May 26, 2011

"New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to 424,000 last week (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43179580/Stubborn_Jobless_Claims_Still_Keep_On_Climbing_Hig her - broken link)," from CNBC, May 26, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

U.S. Economy: Previously Owned Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall, from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 19, 2011

US Q1 corporate profits drop unexpectedly (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/US-profits-drop-1st-qtr-GDP-unrevised-at-up-18-pct-H8H3C?opendocument&src=rss - broken link), from Business Speculator, May 26, 2011

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Jump on One-Time Events, from Bloomberg, May 5, 2011

"Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly stalled in April and housing starts dropped," from Bloomberg Businessweek, May 17, 2011

In case you didn't notice, quotation marks denotes quotes from articles.

Update- More headlines and quotes:

"Wall Street tumbled at Thursday’s opening bell after the government reported an unexpectedly sharp jump in unemployment claims," from MSNBC, June 23, 2011

"The Federal Reserve stayed the course on monetary policy Wednesday, citing "likely" temporary factors for the unexpectedly sluggish growth in the US economy," from MSN, June 22, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Climb, from Bloomberg, June 9, 2011

"The dollar slumped on Friday after a government report showed an unexpectedly small amount of hiring in May," from MSN, June 4, 2011

"The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 13 in June from 16 in May," from the Financial Times, Jue 15, 2011

"The jobless rate, which is obtained from a separate household survey, unexpectedly rose to 9.1 percent in May (http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpps/money/economy-taking-%27a-while%27-to-mend%2C-obama-says-dpgonc-20110603-to-_13516904 - broken link)," from Fox Philadelphia, June 3, 2011

U.S. jobless claims rises unexpectedly (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-jobless-claims-rises-unexpectedly/article2053268/ - broken link), from the AP, June 9, 2011

"Consumer confidence unexpectedly decreased in May," from Bloomberg, June 13, 2011

"An unexpected jump in claims for unemployment benefits (http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_18337027?source=rss - broken link)," from the AP, June 23, 2011

And a few that, instead of using "unexpected," use "more than expected:"

Jobless claims rise more than expected, Reuters, June 23, 2011

Economy cools more than expected, rattling stock market, from the Christian Science Monitor, June 1, 2011

US Economy Growing Slower Than Expected, from the Money Times, June 23, 2011

US home sales fall more than expected, from the Financial Times, March 21, 2011

U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in March, from MSNBC, May 11, 2011

US GDP Growth Slows More Than Expected, from Sky News, April 28, 2011

Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, from Industry Week, March 10, 2011



What kind of "expert" are you if you are continuously surprised by outcomes?

Dont trust any of them at the rate we are going. In 2008, right after Hank Paulson/Bush announced the crash, NY Times reported that jewelry sales were up in new york city.