Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv
Read more polls. Everyone is equally as unpopular right now. In that same article, it points out that Boener and Reid are seen less favorably than Obama in regards to the economic situation.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Conservatives, what makes you think Obama will lose in 2012 when his opponents are even less popular?
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Bohner and Reid are not elected by the states so a national poll means next to nothing.
"Conservatives, what makes you think Obama will lose in 2012 when his opponents are even less popular?"
At 40% approval and 52% disapproval, he is simply unelectable. No sitting president has won an additional term with a Gallup job approval rating below 52%. When disapproval outweighs approval by that much, voters will roll the dice on a new candidate rather than accept what they have already rejected.
Bush Sr. was at 38% when he lost in a three-way to Clinton. Carter was at 37% when he lost in a landslide to Reagan. Ford was at 48% when Carter won. Had he ran, LBJ would have lost to Nixon with a 43% approval rating. Truman was eligible for a third term but lost an early primary contest, and with his approval rating below 30%, decided to bow out gracefully.
Consider this also. No president has won an additional term with unemployment above 7.2%, an ongoing war more than eight years old, a misery index above 11.25% or the inflation adjusted price of gasoline over $2.50 per gallon since FDR.
Reagan won with unemployment at 7.2% and a misery index of 11.25%, but the economy was otherwise booming with GDP over 8%, six million private sector jobs created, inflation down 10 points and the dollar at its all time record high in May 1984.
Viet Nam was ongoing in 1972 and more than eight years old, but Nixon got credit for the Guam Doctrine and Americans concluded he would be best able to keep us out of war.
You can run against unpopular wars and have great success as these conflicts drag on, but you lose that edge if you start new wars. Truman paid a heavy political price for Korea, as did LBJ for Viet Nam.
We'll have to see if Obama can sell us on continued involvement in Afghanistan and Libya.
To win another term with any of these problems in play would be historic.
To hope to win another term with all of them in place is extremely unrealistic.