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Old 09-30-2011, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Between Seattle and Portland
1,266 posts, read 1,603,164 times
Reputation: 1399
Default When Do You Become a Climate Refugee?

If you lived in a state such as Texas where drought is predicted to last another nine years and possibly break the drought of record, would you relocate and become a climate refugee?

Or would you hope normal weather cycles would return and stick it out? What factors should weigh in on your decision?

DH has a cousin in the Austin area who's throwing in the towel after this summer's horrible drought and wildfires. As soon as he can find work elsewhere, he's uprooting his whole family and taking a loss on selling his house if necessary to get out of the area.

"The state climatologist for Texas says the record drought of 2011 could be only the beginning of a dry spell that could last until 2020."

Climatologist Says Texas Drought Could Last Until 2020 « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

"In that time, we’ve seen several drought years interspersed with some very wet years. So we know that the current temperature patterns are not a death sentence for non-stop drought. But we have heightened drought susceptibility during this period, and, according to some studies, the effect of La Niña is likely to be amplified. So this coming year looks very likely to be another dry one, and consequently it is very likely that next summer will have water shortages and drought problems even more severe than this summer. I don’t expect the rainfall to be so low again, mainly because it was so extremely low, but even 70% or 80% of normal will cause many reservoirs and aquifers to be lower next summer than this one.

What about a third year, or a fourth year? At this point, all I can say is that we’re in a period of frequent Texas drought until further notice. This period, with both the Pacific and Atlantic working against us, might be over in a couple of years, or it might last another fifteen or twenty years. It seems likely to last another decade.

While not all of the next ten years are likely to be dry, they could be. In any case, if we’re ever going to break the drought of record, this is precisely the situation in which it would happen."

The Drought of Record Was Made to Be Broken | Climate Abyss | a Chron.com blog

Last edited by nei; 10-01-2011 at 07:30 AM..
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:44 PM
 
13,074 posts, read 6,615,909 times
Reputation: 2586
Quote:
Originally Posted by stonecypher5413 View Post
If you lived in a state such as Texas where drought is predicted to last another nine years and possibly break the drought of record, would you relocate and become a climate refugee?

Or would you hope normal weather cycles would return and stick it out? What factors should weigh in on your decision?

DH has a cousin in the Austin area who's throwing in the towel after this summer's horrible drought and wildfires. As soon as he can find work elsewhere, he's uprooting his whole family and taking a loss on selling his house if necessary to get out of the area.

"The state climatologist for Texas says the record drought of 2011 could be only the beginning of a dry spell that could last until 2020."

Climatologist Says Texas Drought Could Last Until 2020 « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

"In that time, we’ve seen several drought years interspersed with some very wet years. So we know that the current temperature patterns are not a death sentence for non-stop drought. But we have heightened drought susceptibility during this period, and, according to some studies, the effect of La Niña is likely to be amplified. So this coming year looks very likely to be another dry one, and consequently it is very likely that next summer will have water shortages and drought problems even more severe than this summer. I don’t expect the rainfall to be so low again, mainly because it was so extremely low, but even 70% or 80% of normal will cause many reservoirs and aquifers to be lower next summer than this one.

What about a third year, or a fourth year? At this point, all I can say is that we’re in a period of frequent Texas drought until further notice. This period, with both the Pacific and Atlantic working against us, might be over in a couple of years, or it might last another fifteen or twenty years. It seems likely to last another decade.

While not all of the next ten years are likely to be dry, they could be. In any case, if we’re ever going to break the drought of record, this is precisely the situation in which it would happen."

The Drought of Record Was Made to Be Broken | Climate Abyss | a Chron.com blog

Bye!


That is about all I can say.
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth Texas
11,890 posts, read 4,294,953 times
Reputation: 2249
Quote:
Originally Posted by stonecypher5413 View Post
If you lived in a state such as Texas where drought is predicted to last another nine years and possibly break the drought of record, would you relocate and become a climate refugee?

Or would you hope normal weather cycles would return and stick it out? What factors should weigh in on your decision?

DH has a cousin in the Austin area who's throwing in the towel after this summer's horrible drought and wildfires. As soon as he can find work elsewhere, he's uprooting his whole family and taking a loss on selling his house if necessary to get out of the area.

"The state climatologist for Texas says the record drought of 2011 could be only the beginning of a dry spell that could last until 2020."

Climatologist Says Texas Drought Could Last Until 2020 « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

"In that time, we’ve seen several drought years interspersed with some very wet years. So we know that the current temperature patterns are not a death sentence for non-stop drought. But we have heightened drought susceptibility during this period, and, according to some studies, the effect of La Niña is likely to be amplified. So this coming year looks very likely to be another dry one, and consequently it is very likely that next summer will have water shortages and drought problems even more severe than this summer. I don’t expect the rainfall to be so low again, mainly because it was so extremely low, but even 70% or 80% of normal will cause many reservoirs and aquifers to be lower next summer than this one.

What about a third year, or a fourth year? At this point, all I can say is that we’re in a period of frequent Texas drought until further notice. This period, with both the Pacific and Atlantic working against us, might be over in a couple of years, or it might last another fifteen or twenty years. It seems likely to last another decade.

While not all of the next ten years are likely to be dry, they could be. In any case, if we’re ever going to break the drought of record, this is precisely the situation in which it would happen."

The Drought of Record Was Made to Be Broken | Climate Abyss | a Chron.com blog
I have lived and worked my entire life in Texas. But this drought is terrible.
could I afford to do so I would be in the mountains in Colorado or the Tahoe area. Living in the heat has made me love the cold and afternoon mountain showers .
My opinion if it is hot and dry there are only so many clothes you can take off and walk around in public. If its cold you can always put more clothes on
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:47 PM
 
Location: KCMO, returning to Indy in 2012!
121 posts, read 54,748 times
Reputation: 79
Lots of climate refugees already in the US.

They're called people from the north who have become complete sissies when it comes to inclimate weather and winter who fled to the south and west so they could feel better about themselves. I hear so many people up here complain about how they "just can't take another winter" and other BS like Seasonal Affective Disorder.

Turns out that might not be the best strategy. I think people who've lived in places like Texas there whole lives will be just fine because many of them have been through these kinds of things before. But the wishy-washy fairweather transplants will likely be the first ones to bolt.

Seriously though, I hope that a lot of this long-term drought talk in Texas is just fear-mongering because they really need to come out of their current drought soon. Could get ugly.
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:47 PM
 
9,688 posts, read 3,474,721 times
Reputation: 3087
when Idiots like Michael Mann and Phil Jones and James Hansen get control of policy.
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:52 PM
 
Location: John & Ken-ville
12,782 posts, read 8,701,440 times
Reputation: 8376
Well. From what I have read a "climate refugee" for instance would be someone displaced from their home because of "so-called" climate change.

The best example would be an inhabitant on a south pacific island that is slowly disappearing because the sea level is rising.

Quote:
Tuvalu consists of nine low-lying atolls totaling just 26 square kilometers, or 10 square miles, and in the past few years the "king tides" that peak in February have been rising higher than ever. Waves have washed over the island's main roads; coconut trees stand partly submerged; and small patches of cropland have been rendered unusable because of encroaching saltwater.

The government and many experts already assume the worst: Sometime in the next 50 years, if rising sea-level predictions prove accurate, the entire 11,800-strong population will have to be evacuated.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/03/wo....5548184.html?

I don't agree with the change being climate related, because the planet has ALWAYS reconfigured the topography since the earth began. Pangaea is no more, was that because of "man made climate change"? Not in my opinion. Just natural earth changes - with climate included. But not because of man made "global warming".

Tuvalu:

Spoiler


A recent article from September 24th, 2011

Quote:
The country’s leaders have faced this reality — more than a decade ago, they asked Australia and New Zealand to be willing to take in the Tuvalu’s residents if evacuation ultimately becomes necessary.

The problem goes well beyond the vast Pacific region. Leaders from the Indian Ocean and Carribean also warned Saturday of severe problems facing their regions.

Navinchandra Ramgoolam, prime minister of the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius — larger and more developed than Tuvalu — warned Saturday that the threat has to be addressed more quickly if horrendous consequences are to be avoided. He said the existence of some small island nations is at stake.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/island-nations-tell-un-their-future-at-stake-as-water-levels-rise/2011/09/24/gIQAGnvetK_story.html (broken link)
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:52 PM
 
9,688 posts, read 3,474,721 times
Reputation: 3087
Quote:
Originally Posted by stonecypher5413 View Post
If you lived in a state such as Texas where drought is predicted to last another nine years and possibly break the drought of record, would you relocate and become a climate refugee?

Or would you hope normal weather cycles would return and stick it out? What factors should weigh in on your decision?
Lets just start with the part I quote above. You state that the current drought conditions could last another nine years....I agree that is possible because of the cold phase PDO and La Nina conditions in the ENSO.

BUT you then state "hope normal weather cycles would return".


Dude, this is the normal weather cycle.
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Old 09-30-2011, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Austin
18,193 posts, read 5,247,807 times
Reputation: 4046
If you can't handle hot dry weather, you shouldn't be here. Just read the weather history. It's nothing new and it will happen every year. But there is no way to predict next year's weather like these idiots try to do.

And since we've only been keeping accurate weather records for a century or so, we will always be setting new weather records.

One thing that happens when we have these long dry spells is that (new) residents stop planting stuff that requires a lot of water and they start focusing on native plants.
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Old 09-30-2011, 01:00 PM
 
13,074 posts, read 6,615,909 times
Reputation: 2586
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd View Post
Lets just start with the part I quote above. You state that the current drought conditions could last another nine years....I agree that is possible because of the cold phase PDO and La Nina conditions in the ENSO.

BUT you then state "hope normal weather cycles would return".


Dude, this is the normal weather cycle.

*chuckle*
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Old 09-30-2011, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,586 posts, read 11,205,516 times
Reputation: 6198
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmmanuelGoldstein View Post
Lots of climate refugees already in the US.

They're called people from the north who have become complete sissies when it comes to inclimate weather and winter who fled to the south and west so they could feel better about themselves. I hear so many people up here complain about how they "just can't take another winter" and other BS like Seasonal Affective Disorder.

Turns out that might not be the best strategy. I think people who've lived in places like Texas there whole lives will be just fine because many of them have been through these kinds of things before. But the wishy-washy fairweather transplants will likely be the first ones to bolt.

Seriously though, I hope that a lot of this long-term drought talk in Texas is just fear-mongering because they really need to come out of their current drought soon. Could get ugly.
I would not call anyone who experiences -50°F winters in Interior Alaska a "sissy." Crazy maybe, but definitely not a sissy.

Trust me on this, when there is fewer than four hours of daylight for months on end during the winter, SAD is a very real concern. Some people can cope with it better than others. There is a very good reason why Alaska's suicide rate is double the national average. Our winters and those long nights can be brutal.

As far as the Texas drought is concerned, I would not put any stock in the predictions of climatologists, particularly when they make predictions over a period of more than a year. They have never been right yet.

At the very least Texas is bound to be hit by one or two hurricanes within the next decade, so cheer up!
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