July 2013 Employment Rate to worst rate since 1978 (Jimmy Carter Bad!!!)

[CDusr]

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

You need to factor in the size of those groups to understand how the aging population is driving down the LFPR. We, in the United States, have never had this percentage of older people. It is the driving force in the declining LFPR.

This is all factored in. All from official numbers. Including the breakdowns. I am simply stating that claiming BB's are the reason the LPR is so low does not add up. I posted this earlier.

Originally Posted by CDusr

Nope. Numbers aren't there.
Making 9 Million Jobless 'Vanish': How The U.S. Government ...
quote:
Based on in-depth analysis of the government's own numbers, we will present herein the true picture: 74% of the jobless who have been removed from unemployment calculations are in the 16-54 age bracket, with only 26% in the 55 and above bracket. Yes, the population is aging - but the heart of the workforce participation deception isn't about the old.

As to cooking. We have conflict of interest to consider. Lack of transparency and soft numbers. However, these are official numbers and there is only one source for this.

Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex
If you look at the footnotes this doesn't even make sense.
Why would you lump these 2 groups?
Look at (1), the largest group. Do not want a job and want a job, both reference this footnote.
Then read the footnote.
(1) Includes some persons who are not asked if they want a job.

[CDusr]

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

Yes they have been retiring, but not in the same percentages compared to the rest of the population. The population of America on average is getting older. These older Americans continue to be included in the LFPR whether or not they are working or have retired.

Checkout the graphic here.

This amazing, animated chart shows the aging of America

The LPR is defined. Yes you can be drawing SS and still be working.
labor force participation rate
quote:
The data used to estimated the labor force participation rate is obtained along with other labor force data from the monthly Current Population Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force participation rates are also commonly calculated using data derived from the Census of the Population.

The labor force participation rate indicates the proportion of the available "working age" population that is willing and able to work and is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is found by dividing the labor force (total civilian labor force) by the population (total noninstitutionalized civilian population)

[WilliamSmyth]

Originally Posted by CDusr

The LPR is defined. Yes you can be drawing SS and still be working.
labor force participation rate
quote:
The data used to estimated the labor force participation rate is obtained along with other labor force data from the monthly Current Population Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force participation rates are also commonly calculated using data derived from the Census of the Population.

The labor force participation rate indicates the proportion of the available "working age" population that is willing and able to work and is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is found by dividing the labor force (total civilian labor force) by the population (total noninstitutionalized civilian population)

Yes, LFPR is defined. "Working Age" for the purposes of the LFPR is anyone 16 or older. LFPR includes everyone 16 or older unless you are in the military or somehow institutionalized.

The number of older people as a percentage of the overall population is increasing. The percentage of older people will increasing be until the baby boomer generation starts to die off.

Historically people have start to drop out of the working population in significant percentages in their fifties. Using 1946 as the start of the Baby Boom generation and 1964 as the end then the older boomers are 67 and the younger are 49. Most are in the period of life where historically their participation in the labor force will cease. Unless the older than 55 group works at rates equal to the younger Americans (ie breaks the long term historically trend in a significant way) then their existence will bring down the LFPR rate.

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

The numbers from the latest report:
144,170 Employeed
11,316 Unempolyed
90,473 Not in Labor Force (Retirees, Discouraged Workers, Students, Disabled, etc)
245,959 Civilan Noninstitutional Population (Employeed + Unemployeed + Not in Labor Force)

155,486 Labor Force (Employeed+Unemployeed)
63.2% Labor Force Participation Rate (Labor Force/Civilan Noninstitutional Population)


Those 55 and over group are moving from the Labor Force (e+u) to the Not in Labor Force in significant percentages, which makes the numerator of the LFPR calculation smaller. Those turning 16 are entering the Total population making the denominator larger. Younger workers who look for work or who find jobs increase the numerator, as do older discouraged workers if they start looking for work. Retirees make up the majority of the 90 million not in the Labor Force number.

Put it all together given the size of the over 55 group, the LFPR will be declining for a while, even if there is robust job growth.

This decline has been predicted for a long time.

The following is from a 1999 BLS study.
http://www.bls.gov/mlr/1999/12/art1full.pdf

For example, those aged 16 to 24
were more than 20 percent of the civilian noninstitutional
population aged 16 and older in 1970 and 1980. With the aging
of this baby-boom generation, the share of 16 to 24 years-
olds in the population is projected to decline to 16 percent in
2015 and to less than 15 percent in 2025. (See table 5.) In
contrast, persons 65 and older, who made up 14 percent of the
population in 1970, are projected to account for 18 percent in
2015 and 23 percent in 2025. Given that labor force participa-
tion rates in 2015 for the younger group (the baby-boomer
group) were 5 times as large as those for the older group, this
shift in composition of the population is expected to have a
negative effect on the aggregate labor force participation rate.
Also, the share of the population aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 44
(two age groups that have high labor force participation) is
projected to be lower in 2025 than in 1998.
...
Based on the assumption that labor force participation rates
would remain unchanged at the detailed level, the 2015–25
projections show a decline of 4.5 percentage points in the
aggregate labor force participation rate because of the contin-
ued aging of the population.
...
The effect of the changing age distribution of the popula-
tion on the labor force and labor force participation rate is
illustrated in table 6. If the 2025 population had the same age
distribution as the 2015 population, the aggregate labor force
participation rate would be 66 percent rather than 63 percent
and the projected labor force level would have 8 million more
persons. The 2015 population has 16 million fewer persons
aged 65 years and older than does the 2025 population. (See
table 5.) This swing, combined with the drop of 3.7 million
people aged 45 to 54, induces the sharp drop in the labor force.