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Old 07-04-2014, 09:06 AM
 
Location: San Diego
5,319 posts, read 8,986,362 times
Reputation: 3396

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Little-Acorn View Post
The Labor Force Participation Rate has been stuck at its historically lowest value ever, for three months now.

GREAT "recovery".
"Historically lowest value ever" ?

Seems like you need to LEARN your history!

It was less than 62% up until 1978.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Year Jan
1948 58.6
1949 58.7
1950 58.9
1951 59.1
1952 59.5
1953 59.5
1954 58.6
1955 58.6
1956 60.2
1957 59.5
1958 59.3
1959 59.3
1960 59.1
1961 59.6
1962 58.8
1963 58.6
1964 58.6
1965 58.6
1966 59
1967 59.5
1968 59.2
1969 59.6
1970 60.4
1971 60.4
1972 60.2
1973 60
1974 61.3
1975 61.4
1976 61.3
1977 61.6
1978 62.8
1979 63.6
1980 64
1981 63.9
1982 63.7
1983 63.9
1984 63.9
1985 64.7
1986 64.9
1987 65.4
1988 65.8
1989 66.5
1990 66.8
1991 66.2
1992 66.3
1993 66.2
1994 66.6
1995 66.8
1996 66.4
1997 67
1998 67.1
1999 67.2
2000 67.3
2001 67.2
2002 66.5
2003 66.4
2004 66.1
2005 65.8
2006 66
2007 66.4
2008 66.2
2009 65.7
2010 64.8
2011 64.2
2012 63.7
2013 63.6
2014 63
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Old 07-04-2014, 09:11 AM
 
Location: San Diego
5,319 posts, read 8,986,362 times
Reputation: 3396
Quote:
Originally Posted by highcotton View Post
Take a look at how many of those 92 million actually WANT a job:

A-38. Persons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex

Of the 92 million, 84 Million are NOT looking for work.

They include:
  • Retired People
  • Stay-At-Home mothers (and fathers)
  • Disabled
This high number of NILF (Not In Labor Force) has always existed.

Have a look back at the years 1977-2014:

Year ___Qtr1__

1977
61,140,000
1978 61,005,000
1979 60,558,000
1980 61,340,000
1981 62,101,000
1982 63,131,000
1983 63,739,000
1984 64,272,000
1985 63,702,000
1986 64,003,000
1987 63,994,000
1988 64,087,000
1989 63,698,000
1990 63,792,000
1991 65,232,000
1992 65,614,000
1993 66,551,000
1994 66,460,000
1995 66,832,000
1996 67,748,000
1997 67,604,000
1998 67,994,000
1999 68,688,000
2000 69,877,000
2001 70,904,000
2002 72,722,000
2003 74,511,000
2004 76,107,000
2005 77,532,000
2006 78,163,000
2007 78,826,000
2008 79,985,000
2009 81,253,000
2010 83,726,000
2011 86,121,000
2012 88,465,000
2013 90,150,000
2014 92,074,000

The numbers above were from the BLS website, using their query tool for everyone "Not In The Labor Force"

data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln
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Old 07-04-2014, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,305 posts, read 3,029,253 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by RD5050 View Post
"Historically lowest value ever" ?

Seems like you need to LEARN your history!

It was less than 62% up until 1978.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Year Jan
1948 58.6
1949 58.7
1950 58.9
1951 59.1
1952 59.5
1953 59.5
1954 58.6
1955 58.6
1956 60.2
1957 59.5
1958 59.3
1959 59.3
1960 59.1
1961 59.6
1962 58.8
1963 58.6
1964 58.6
1965 58.6
1966 59
1967 59.5
1968 59.2
1969 59.6
1970 60.4
1971 60.4
1972 60.2
1973 60
1974 61.3
1975 61.4
1976 61.3
1977 61.6
1978 62.8
1979 63.6
1980 64
1981 63.9
1982 63.7
1983 63.9
1984 63.9
1985 64.7
1986 64.9
1987 65.4
1988 65.8
1989 66.5
1990 66.8
1991 66.2
1992 66.3
1993 66.2
1994 66.6
1995 66.8
1996 66.4
1997 67
1998 67.1
1999 67.2
2000 67.3
2001 67.2
2002 66.5
2003 66.4
2004 66.1
2005 65.8
2006 66
2007 66.4
2008 66.2
2009 65.7
2010 64.8
2011 64.2
2012 63.7
2013 63.6
2014 63

Notice since 2008. What do they all have in common. Falling numbers. Hmmmmmmmmmm makes you wonder.

Oh that's right, Baby Boomers are retiring. But then I hear young people can't get jobs because Baby Boomers won't and can't retire.

I guess if we just throw more funny money at the economy things will boom again. I bet Barry was on the phone with Janet Yellen last week seeing if she had the cash for his new stimulus he's been talking about.

Everything is just fine folks, enjoy your 4th of July. Don't blow your fingers off!
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Old 07-04-2014, 10:28 AM
 
Location: San Diego
5,319 posts, read 8,986,362 times
Reputation: 3396
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
Notice since 2008. What do they all have in common. Falling numbers. Hmmmmmmmmmm makes you wonder.

Oh that's right, Baby Boomers are retiring. But then I hear young people can't get jobs because Baby Boomers won't and can't retire.

I guess if we just throw more funny money at the economy things will boom again. I bet Barry was on the phone with Janet Yellen last week seeing if she had the cash for his new stimulus he's been talking about.

Everything is just fine folks, enjoy your 4th of July. Don't blow your fingers off!
Notice since 2001?

Falling numbers.

What year did the oldest Baby Boomers (those born in 1946) turn 55?

Hint:

2001 - 55 = 1946
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Old 07-04-2014, 10:30 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,334,196 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
So Ken, help me out here. What is your take on the -2.9% GDP last quarter? And please don't give me the "Weather" story, I know you can't be that foolish to believe that.
You don't think severe weather impacts the economy?
So I suppose you think Katrina had no impact on the economy of New Orleans back in 2005. The shutdown of businesses had no economic impact, the later rebuilding had no economic impact?
How about the 30% crop loss to Florida back in 2010 when extra cold weather decimated the citrus industry there? You don't think THAT had an economic impact?
Really?
REALLY?
The fact is, weather has an ENORMOUS impact on the GDP - whether it's a devasting hurricane or a particularly harsh winter. Bad weather impacts all kinds of aspects of the economy - from farming, to construction, to shipping. When people can't make it to work because of the weather, businesses suffer. A closed business doesn't make any money. Workers who don't make it to work have smaller paychecks. Trucks that can't make deliveries don't provide income for the firms that own them.
ALL of that affects the GDP.
Today is the pinnacle of the tourist season on North Carolina's outer banks. Typically 250,000 people head there for 4th of July weekend. It's the absolute busiest time of the year. This morning hurricane Arthur pulled out of there. How many tourists do you think are going to end up spending the 4th of July there now?
Do you REALLY think the weather there won't have a HUGE economic impact on those islands?
Really?
REALLY?

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2014/...-at-carolinas/

How much of the fall in the 1st quarter GDP was weather-related?
I have no idea. The idea that NONE of it was weather-related is incredibly ignorant though.
In any event we'll know by the end of the month when the 2nd quarter GDP number is announced. If the 1st quarter GDP collapse was largely due to weather, we'll see a pretty big bounce back in the 2nd quarter. If it was simply due to a generally slowing economy, the 2nd quarter numbers will be very poor too.
The fact that payrolls data for the last 3 months was pretty strong tends to support the idea that the big drop in 1st quarter GDP had a lot to do with weather rather than a collapsing economy.

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 07-04-2014 at 11:49 AM..
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Old 07-04-2014, 10:35 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,334,196 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by parried View Post
Just because 288,000 jobs were created doesn't mean anything. A better thing to pay attention to is how many people are getting hired, do people meet the qualifications, how many people did HR reject on bogus excuses, how many people are applying for each job. 91 million people are not in the labor force. 47+ million on food stamps.

It's not getting better.
When there's a backlog of unemployed, it's a pretty safe bet that ALL of those 288,000 either got filled or will soon.

The number of people applying for each job is dropping - an indication that that backlog is gradually getting smaller.
91 million people not in the labor - the vast majority of which DON'T WANT TO BE IN THE LABOR FORCE.
So what?
The number of people on food stamps has fallen by 1.7 million since Jan of last year (it fell by 700,000 in the first 4 months of this year alone).

Sorry to disappoint you, but by virtually every measure it IS getting better.

Ken
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Old 07-04-2014, 11:43 AM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,805,587 times
Reputation: 5478
Yup - It is getting better and at a reasonable rate. And you can feel it on the streets.

It may actually help the dems in the November election but will certainly give Hilary or whomever a huge boost in 2016.

And it will likely continue upward for some years. Not huge good news but steady and continuing.

Tough time to be the party out of power running on a theory that the world is collapsing just as it gets better and better.
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Old 07-04-2014, 11:47 AM
 
1,881 posts, read 1,010,918 times
Reputation: 1551
Its better.. The loud conservative group that likes to use fear to motivate people into voting for them is trying its hardest to make it seem like things are not better.

Here is how to own a Republican in all this mess..

Carter's economy was not good.. It took Reagan til 1985-1986 to get the economy really recovering from that.

Correct right?

Fast forward to 2001. Clinton had a booming economy but it was starting to slow in 2000 (nothing near terrible though) Bush deals with a terror attack, the economy hurts for it. and Bush gets it going again really quickly to a point in 2004 where its growing as fast as it can. The problem? A bubble was created and the tax cuts caused a huge deficit and a crash occurred starting in late 2007 from this. Obama inherits this total disaster and it has taken him 5 solid years to gain traction.. Kind of like Reagan? And one could make a case that Bush 2 left the economy worse off than Carter did.. Yet Republicans act like this is Obama's issue.. Give me a break..

Obama's acted like a conservative on his economic policies and its too early to be known on how the Health Care Act will be for a few years yet. Then we can judge. Its likely we won't know on the real effects of the ACA until Obama is out of office..
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Old 07-04-2014, 11:53 AM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 24 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,557 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6041
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebigr View Post
Notice since 2008. What do they all have in common. Falling numbers. Hmmmmmmmmmm makes you wonder.

Oh that's right, Baby Boomers are retiring. But then I hear young people can't get jobs because Baby Boomers won't and can't retire.

I guess if we just throw more funny money at the economy things will boom again. I bet Barry was on the phone with Janet Yellen last week seeing if she had the cash for his new stimulus he's been talking about.

Everything is just fine folks, enjoy your 4th of July. Don't blow your fingers off!
Population distribution

Baby Boomers make up a 4th of the population, "young people" make up about 1/13th. Its not a 1/1 ratio.
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Old 07-04-2014, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
2,305 posts, read 3,029,253 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
You don't think severe weather impacts the economy?
So I suppose you think Katrina had no impact on the economy of New Orleans back in 2005. The shutdown of businesses had no economic impact, the later rebuilding had no economic impact?
How about the 30% crop loss to Florida back in 2010 when extra cold weather decimated the citrus industry there? You don't think THAT had an economic impact?
Really?
REALLY?
The fact is, weather has an ENORMOUS impact on the GDP - whether it's a devasting hurricane or a particularly harsh winter. Bad weather impacts all kinds of aspects of the economy - from farming, to construction, to shipping. When people can't make it to work because of the weather, businesses suffer. A closed business doesn't make any money. Workers who don't make it to work have smaller paychecks. Trucks that can't make deliveries don't provide income for the firms that own them.
ALL of that affects the GDP.
Today is the pinnacle of the tourist season on North Carolina's outer banks. Typically 250,000 people head there for 4th of July weekend. It's the absolute busiest time of the year. This morning hurricane Arthur pulled out of there. How many tourists do you think are going to end up spending the 4th of July there now?
Do you REALLY think the weather there won't have a HUGE economic impact on those islands?
Really?
REALLY?

Arthur weakens to Category 1 storm after leaving thousands without power in North Carolina | Fox News

How much of the fall in the 1st quarter GDP was weather-related?
I have no idea. The idea that NONE of it was weather-related is incredibly ignorant though.
In any event we'll know by the end of the month when the 2nd quarter GDP number is announced. If the 1st quarter GDP collapse was largely due to weather, we'll see a pretty big bounce back in the 2nd quarter. If it was simply due to a generally slowing economy, the 2nd quarter numbers will be very poor too.
The fact that payrolls data for the last 3 months was pretty strong tends to support the idea that the big drop in 1st quarter GDP had a lot to do with weather rather than a collapsing economy.

Ken

But Ken, 2.9%. That is a large percentage. The sixth worse GDP since 1929, that's 85 years!!! Weather was fantastic here in South Florida, we had a record tourist season. The entire country did not have a terrible winter, and the places that did have a bad winter have winter weather sometimes severe, sometimes not, every year. They are prepared for winter.

Sixth worse GDP in 85 years. Seriously, think about that.

Now if the GDP is bad next quarter here is an excuse you can use; "Today is the pinnacle of the tourist season on North Carolina's outer banks. Typically 250,000 people head there for 4th of July weekend. It's the absolute busiest time of the year".

Those 250,000 people making other plans, still enjoying the Holiday weekend should be a real kick in the ass for the economy. What is the population of this country?

My wife and I were going to the Outer Banks one year and a hurricane was approaching. Virgina was the recipient of our money as we went to Colonial Williamsburg instead and then to Western NC. Plus on our way home we saw Rottweiler puppies for sale so a person got $750 in South Carolina, money we would not have spent if we would of stayed in The Outer Banks.

I realized in 08 that my team (Republicans) were thieves and lairs. By 2010 I realized your team ( Democrats) were no different than my old team.
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