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It doesn't change anything regarding the actual story and Putin's actions, but you are wrong on three counts:
1) Estonia was part of the Russian Empire from 1710 to 1918.
2) 25% of Estonia residents are ethnic Russians. Many of those came over right after WWII but they (and their descendents) are still there.
3) For Ukraine, that number is actually 17%, not "half". It's only half or more in eastern Donbass and Crimea.
Exactly. Estonia is another one of those football nations one might find in the south in the Balkans. In this case it was a football between the Swedish empire and Russian.
And what these nations need to do is tread carefully. Ukraine decided it was going to make a law removing Russian as a language. Great way to start a civilian crisis.They quickly retracted it but cossacks were never masters of political subtleties. Western Ukraine was always at odds with Poland most of the time and fared no better at independence . And the Estonians cooked everyone 's goose trying to free itself from Germany. The Estonian riflemen are as important to Bolshevik history as Lenin is . With Nato and EU membership they are essentially back in Germany's orbit. They should have looked to Finland , Norway and Sweden( but then again Norway and Sweden have very bad blood from the WII betrayal) .
Switzerland with its French, Italian ad German is not going to do itself any favors picking anyone's side or antagonizing its populations, so it just doesn't play that game. So the Baltic nations need to know how to keep the great powers from tearing it apart. In the West they will always send their love and support to get them Russians , drinking beer and eating chips looking at the interesting stories coming from the conflict , rooting for "freedom."
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia should look to the Fins and how they manage to keep peacefully neutral. Another master of this was Dubrovnik that was also able to keep the great powers at bay.
Exactly. Estonia is another one of those football nations one might find in the south in the Balkans. In this case it was a football between the Swedish empire and Russian.
And what these nations need to do is tread carefully. Ukraine decided it was going to make a law removing Russian as a language. Great way to start a civilian crisis.They quickly retracted it but cossacks were never masters of political subtleties. Western Ukraine was always at odds with Poland most of the time and fared no better at independence . And the Estonians cooked everyone 's goose trying to free itself from Germany. The Estonian riflemen are as important to Bolshevik history as Lenin is . With Nato and EU membership they are essentially back in Germany's orbit...
Estonia was never a pre-Soviet territory, but Ukraine was, for centuries.
There are few Estonians of Russian extraction or Russian native language speakers, but half of the Ukraine came from Russia and speak only Russian.
And, of course, Estonia is in NATO and Ukraine is not. In Putin's mind, those Russian connections make Ukraine viable to bring back into the Russian nation, and there's nothing he wants more than a return of empire, but he wants an empire that is more manageable than the over-large conglomeration of buffer states the Soviets collected up.
Putin knows who he can bully and who he can not. He's very aware that NATO is now aroused over the recent actions in Ukraine, but he's not about to pick an open fight with NATO if it's not to his advantage. If a couple of overzealous border guards seized and Estonian officer, the officer will be released and handed back. Putin may be ready to invade Ukaraine, but he's not yet ready to take on NATO, and won't be for a long time to come.
His game will be steady pressure on the Ukranians until he gets a good sense of NATO's resolve and determination. If it looks like NATO is going to prepare for a serious fight, he'll back off and wait for another day to grab Ukraine.
Czar Peter I (The Great) added Estonia as well as Latvia and Lithuania to the Russian Empire nearly two centuries before the 1917 Revolution by beating the Swedes and driving them out of this part of the Baltic shores. . The Baltic states were Russian territory until the 1919 Treaty of Versailles restored eastern European states (like Poland), Finland and the Baltic states to independence (all largely carved out of the Russian empire) . Since the USSR did not participate in the Treaty negotiations the Russians were never consulted or consented to this and other changes in their nations borders. This simple point has relevance to what is happening today in eastern Europe.
All the Baltic nations are aware how fragile their hard-won independence is and, historically, always has been since they are easy bargaining chips between bigger world powers. Their NATO membership is very important to them, so let's see how it helps them -- if it does. If nations allow treaties to be ignored, then the potential for global chaos to reign unfettered is great.
All the Baltic nations are aware how fragile their hard-won independence is and, historically, always has been since they are easy bargaining chips between bigger world powers. Their NATO membership is very important to them, so let's see how it helps them -- if it does. If nations allow treaties to be ignored, then the potential for global chaos to reign unfettered is great.
There's a multitude of NATO countries who just so happens to have troops on shared exercises in the Baltic countries around this time - Saber Strike and BALTOPS took place over the summer. The concept of a tripwire force isn't lost on either side.
Unless you just want to throw out every treaty signed by the US?
You need to read article 5 and the entire NATO regs for more info; article 5 in no way mandates a response, and the response taken can be anything ranging from a letter to a nuke strike. Article 5 merely gives legal justification for a country to use force in defense of another country, the basis for collective security agreements. But article 5 does not state that a country must use force, or even respond.
Estonia was never a pre-Soviet territory, but Ukraine was, for centuries.
There are few Estonians of Russian extraction or Russian native language speakers, but half of the Ukraine came from Russia and speak only Russian.
And, of course, Estonia is in NATO and Ukraine is not. In Putin's mind, those Russian connections make Ukraine viable to bring back into the Russian nation, and there's nothing he wants more than a return of empire, but he wants an empire that is more manageable than the over-large conglomeration of buffer states the Soviets collected up.
Putin knows who he can bully and who he can not. He's very aware that NATO is now aroused over the recent actions in Ukraine, but he's not about to pick an open fight with NATO if it's not to his advantage. If a couple of overzealous border guards seized and Estonian officer, the officer will be released and handed back. Putin may be ready to invade Ukaraine, but he's not yet ready to take on NATO, and won't be for a long time to come.
His game will be steady pressure on the Ukranians until he gets a good sense of NATO's resolve and determination. If it looks like NATO is going to prepare for a serious fight, he'll back off and wait for another day to grab Ukraine.
Estonia was part of the Russian Empire, taken from Sweden during the Great Northern War.
If Russia truly desired more territory, they would have annexed Ossetia and Abkhazia, but Russia in fact has not. If Russia wanted Ukraine, Russian troops would have been in Kiev by now, actually months ago.
We just threw out a treaty to protect the Ukraine. See Crimea. Russia, the UK and the US signed a treaty to protect the Ukraine if they gave up their nukes.
We have already gone over this, I have no idea why you are so obtuse to any facts regarding this memo (it is not a treaty); there are exactly zero enforcement measures in the Budapest memo, and furthermore, the Memo was signed while Crimea was an autonomous republican within Ukraine, which Ukraine abolished, thus without any provisions to the modifications of the signatory states, the Memo became basically invalid.
If Russia wanted Ukraine, Russian troops would have been in Kiev by now, actually months ago.
True. And this is almost the same thing that Putin said to Jose Manuel Barroso during their recent phone conversation. Probably, Barroso asked Putin : "Vlad, what's wrong with you? Why do you want to invade Ukraine?", and Putin answered him : "Oh, C'mon Jose, don't say this nonsense please. If I really wanted Ukraine, I would have took Kiev in two weeks just three months ago."
But Barroso announced that Putin said he will take Kiev in two weeks, meaning Putin is aggressor.
Such Barroso's intentional misinterpretation of Putin' words just demonstrates very well that the europeans authorities are lowdown as well as the american administration is.
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