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1) Most people don't "flee" the Northeast states. The Baby Boomers retire and move south for weather and to stretch their retirement portfolio's further (comes down to housing costs / downsizing).
2) Taxes don't cause people to move. This was already proven at length to be a myth. Why does California have a positive net flow of millionaires after raising taxes on millionaires?
3) Population growth is higher in the South. That is primarily responsible for the Census seats. Almost every Northern State grows due to birth replacement. The difference is mostly immigration from the Southern Border. Being close to Mexico and the Caribbean is a big deal.
Nevada and California, hardly Tea-Party states, also have high rates of population growth.
This is just another topic conservatives are completely clueless about.
California does not have a high rate of population growth. Its net domestic migration has been negative for more than twenty years. It's population grows only from births and immigration.
Do you think California has a net positive "flow" of millionaires or is it that existing residents net worth has risen due to the stock market or inflation?
Interesting many people are fleeing to Texas for the lower taxes and especially jobs. Recently read an article that Texas has 48Billion in bond debt hanging out, among other things. Wonder what will happen when the infrastructure implodes.
Illinois' pension alone system has $130B of debt.
Texas' total debt outstanding is $38M, or $1,457 per capita
Compare to:
CA: $149M, $3,905 per capita
NY: $134M, $6,866 per capita
PA: $45m, $4,544 per capita
NJ: $64M, $7,192 per capita
Texas' debt position on a per capita basis is the 2nd best (after GA) of the 10 most populous states.
It seems odd that everyone assumes those moving south are fleeing Northeastern cities. I am not sure about 2010 but in the 2000 Census only one metropolitan area had a population decrease- Pittsburg. All the other metro areas grew. Most people are actually leaving the rural portions of those Northern States. The ones leaving the cities are being quickly replenished by births or by younger people.
Also political power has very little to do with population unless it involves a large city where numerous politicians districts meet- or where several districts are tied to the jobs in one portion of the area. Nevada, Mississippi and South Dakota all had outsized political influence when they were home to Senate majority leaders. While Pelosi brought little extra to the SF Bay area as Speaker since it already had a slew of house members and two US Senators from this area.
You could argue that a higher population brings political power but with so many states/districts locked into polarized voting patterns its really the suburban portions of Virginia, Ohio and Florida that get the most attention.
And I'll add- Texas and Florida are the new Californias that attract domestic migration and immigration. California is the new New York- everyone seems to be from there and they all seem to move because of the inability for affordability, opportunity or simply a change of scene.
We'll see how Florida and Texas fare in 20 years when all the children of the boom make their own life choices. I can tell you that the Carolinas are seeing large numbers of half-backers. These are people who move to Florida and decide the weather, culture or opportunities were not so great and move halfway back to where they came from.
It seems odd that everyone assumes those moving south are fleeing Northeastern cities. I am not sure about 2010 but in the 2000 Census only one metropolitan area had a population decrease- Pittsburg. All the other metro areas grew. Most people are actually leaving the rural portions of those Northern States. The ones leaving the cities are being quickly replenished by births or by younger people.
Also political power has very little to do with population unless it involves a large city where numerous politicians districts meet- or where several districts are tied to the jobs in one portion of the area. Nevada, Mississippi and South Dakota all had outsized political influence when they were home to Senate majority leaders. While Pelosi brought little extra to the SF Bay area as Speaker since it already had a slew of house members and two US Senators from this area.
You could argue that a higher population brings political power but with so many states/districts locked into polarized voting patterns its really the suburban portions of Virginia, Ohio and Florida that get the most attention.
Does everyone assume those moving south are fleeing Northeastern cities? I don't think that's what most here think. I don't.
But let's look at NYC. Its population grew 2.1% from 2000 to 2010. It grew 9.4% from 1990 to 2000. Growth continues, but it is slowing. Is it growing from people moving into the city or from births or immigration?
At the level of Congress, a state's population DOES affect the House. I think you see every day that politicians of both parties can vote together on issues that affect their state. An example is regulations on coal. Or guns. Or military bases. New York was once the big dog in the House. Not now. California is #1, and Texas is #2.
Northeast loses 40% of House seats as people flee high-tax states
By Paul Bedard | September 30, 2014
The Northeast, once the nation’s political engine that produced presidents, House speakers and Senate giants including the late Edward M. Kennedy, is losing clout in Washington as citizens flee the high-tax region, according to experts worried about the trend.
Critics blame rising taxes in states such as Massachusetts and Connecticut for limiting population growth in the Northeast to just 15 percent from 1983 to 2013, while the rest of the nation grew more than 41 percent.
Sounds like this federalism thing is a race to the bottom.
An excellent summary.
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