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I'm afraid Nate Silver has a lot more credibility than you do.
Nate Silver is saying that it is too early to worry about electoral votes, and that it tends to run on par with the popular vote. Though that doesn't mean he thinks the Democrats don't have a good chance at winning.
Nate Silver is saying that it is too early to worry about electoral votes, and that it tends to run on par with the popular vote. Though that doesn't mean he thinks the Democrats don't have a good chance at winning.
Well, technically he says Democrats have about a 50/50 chance of winning as of yet, it's going to depend on who the nominees are (and what's going on in the country at the time). That sounds about right to me. He's predicting a close election.
Well, technically he says Democrats have about a 50/50 chance of winning as of yet, it's going to depend on who the nominees are (and what's going on in the country at the time). That sounds about right to me. He's predicting a close election.
That is because the election is a year away and no one can predict what will be going on in the country at the time, which is why I tend to find humor in all these early prediction threads.
I'm afraid Nate Silver has a lot more credibility than you do.
Nate has more credibility than both of us. Here's Nate on the tipping order of states. The Blue Wall could evaporate next year, but the Republicans would likely reach the threshold of 270 EV without it. Wall states would likely be add on rather than provide the tipping point.
Start a petition to disband the Electoral College?
Been done about a thousand times.
It will take a Constitutional amendment proposed by 2/3 of Congress and then ratified by 3/4 of the states.
Since many states feel they benefit from it*, that's not going to happen.
Recognizing the strong regional interests and loyalties which have played so great a role in American history, proponents argue that the Electoral College system contributes to the cohesiveness of the country be requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president, without such a mechanism, they point out, president would be selected either through the domination of one populous region over the others or through the domination of large metropolitan areas over the rural ones. Indeed, it is principally because of the Electoral College that presidential nominees are inclined to select vice presidential running mates from a region other than their own. For as things stand now, no one region contains the absolute majority (270) of electoral votes required to elect a president. Thus, there is an incentive for presidential candidates to pull together coalitions of States and regions rather than to exacerbate regional differences. Such a unifying mechanism seems especially prudent in view of the severe regional problems that have typically plagued geographically large nations such as China, India, the Soviet Union, and even, in its time, the Roman Empire.
"Been done about a thousand times.
It will take a Constitutional amendment proposed by 2/3 of Congress and then ratified by 3/4 of the states.
Since many states feel they benefit from it*, that's not going to happen."
No, it would just take a sufficient number of the mid-sized/larger states joining the National Popular Vote Compact and agreeing to award their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the popular vote. As it currently stands, the participation of FL, IL, MI, NC, OH, PA, and VA would render it in effect.
No, it would just take a sufficient number of the mid-sized/larger states joining the National Popular Vote Compact and agreeing to award their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the popular vote. As it currently stands, the participation of FL, IL, MI, NC, OH, PA, and VA would render it in effect.
Ohio is making out BIG time this year by being a big swing state....they have no incentive to change anything. Florida gets millions pored into their economy by being in the position they are in.
I also imagine the lawsuits would drag out for years.
Nate has more credibility than both of us. Here's Nate on the tipping order of states. The Blue Wall could evaporate next year, but the Republicans would likely reach the threshold of 270 EV without it. Wall states would likely be add on rather than provide the tipping point.
Article is old. And Nate Silver got it completely wrong about Trump this year. So his "credibility" is no better than anyone elses.
Nice crystal ball you have there, you can't say Silver got it wrong when the first vote in the primaries hasn't even been casted yet. I know you want Trump the Birther to win, but that isn't how this works.
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