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By most measures, the world economy isn't doing so hot. It's actually doing terrible. It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Just look at the BDI or the commodities. And it's not just oil that has taken a beating. In any event, since 2008-2009, most of the so-called economic "growth" has been the result of the central bank actions. Trillions of dollars to shore up bank balance sheets, especially in the USA. And whatever was left over went into the stock market casinos. Or, perhaps, into real estate which is once again in bubble territory.
As for all the government statistics? Today's statistics can't be compared to the statistics from long ago. Today, they're pretty much of a joke. For example, if they figured the unemployment rate the way they did 30 or 40 years ago, the unemployment rate would be astronomical. Of course, that would make certain people look bad, so they just changed the formula. Ditto for the way they calculate inflation.
No one has a crystal ball, but a smart person might think twice about making any new investments right now. Stocks are overpriced, bonds are overpriced, and real estate is overpriced.
By most measures, the world economy isn't doing so hot. It's actually doing terrible. It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Just look at the BDI or the commodities. And it's not just oil that has taken a beating. In any event, since 2008-2009, most of the so-called economic "growth" has been the result of the central bank actions. Trillions of dollars to shore up bank balance sheets, especially in the USA. And whatever was left over went into the stock market casinos. Or, perhaps, into real estate which is once again in bubble territory.
As for all the government statistics? Today's statistics can't be compared to the statistics from long ago. Today, they're pretty much of a joke. For example, if they figured the unemployment rate the way they did 30 or 40 years ago, the unemployment rate would be astronomical. Of course, that would make certain people look bad, so they just changed the formula. Ditto for the way they calculate inflation.
No one has a crystal ball, but a smart person might think twice about making any new investments right now. Stocks are overpriced, bonds are overpriced, and real estate is overpriced.
QFT +1000.
When people say there's been no inflation, have they looked at food prices, education, healthcare, and housing lately?
When it comes to housing, wages and median incomes even in places like NY and SF simply don't support these prices...
Last edited by Lycanmaster; 02-07-2016 at 10:26 AM..
Both the BDI and port traffic are forward looking (6-12 months) and they are still headed down.
Been reading ZeroHedge? I noticed a lot of folks all of sudden using BDI and port traffic after they posted that article.
It's not the I disagree with what you are saying as there is some serious concerns in growth in places like the EU and China. However, look at India's metrics and they appear to be where China was about 10 years, not to mention most of SE Asia which covers about another 400-500 million people. The world's largest economy (US) has been picking up speed until the last quarter or so where global demand is hurting us (we still build and export a lot of stuff).
There's still room to be optimistic that the gloom and boom being reported is just that. However, I have 2016 will be a tough year.
For those of you who think Obama's numbers on the economy reflect the awe and wonder of a recovery here are two articles to read. The first explains what the fed is thinking about. The second describes the "act of desperation"if using negative rates and who, once again, pays for out of control government spending
For those of you who think Obama's numbers on the economy reflect the awe and wonder of a recovery here are two articles to read. The first explains what the fed is thinking about. The second describes the "act of desperation"if using negative rates and who, once again, pays for out of control government spending
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Not sure if this was meant to be a joke but I am noting this is nowhere near the 'Investing' forum.
And that's a good thing.
Been reading ZeroHedge? I noticed a lot of folks all of sudden using BDI and port traffic after they posted that article.
It's not the I disagree with what you are saying as there is some serious concerns in growth in places like the EU and China. However, look at India's metrics and they appear to be where China was about 10 years, not to mention most of SE Asia which covers about another 400-500 million people. The world's largest economy (US) has been picking up speed until the last quarter or so where global demand is hurting us (we still build and export a lot of stuff).
There's still room to be optimistic that the gloom and boom being reported is just that. However, I have 2016 will be a tough year.
All these stats can be found from "mainstream" or economic/trade sites.
"Uneducated people". No, only those who know enough to about math not to confuse real numbers with percentages. As was already pointed out the millennils are the same size as the boomers. And, as was pointed out, a big chunk of that demo has not yet fully entered the labor force. So, if you are taking a large chunk of a group, boomers 55 to 63, which is nearly all of them by the way, the percentages of the remaining groups will go...up...or down?
sigh......Other groups are not affected. It is a percentage of each group. There is no relationship between them.
Aged 55 and under
Aug '08 832 out of 1000 were working or 83.2 percent
Jun '12 807 out of 1000 were working or 80.7 percent
All these stats can be found from "mainstream" or economic/trade sites.
Well if you are looking for them but times like this bring out the economic "boo-birds" so you see more parroting of metrics that you wouldn't normally see in a forum such as this. Remember this isn't the economics section.
sigh......Other groups are not affected. It is a percentage of each group. There is no relationship between them.
Aged 55 and under
Aug '08 832 out of 1000 were working or 83.2 percent
Jun '12 807 out of 1000 were working or 80.7 percent
Get it yet?
There is only a relationship to them when the median ages are different, which has been pointed out many times. The percentage of those eligible for work has changed from 2008 to 2012. It's even more skewed now, which makes me wonder why you are using 4 year old data anyway.
But never mind.
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