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Except for Rasmussen. All polls are fake but that one because it's favorable to Trump. That's how we know it's the real deal because everyone just LOVES Trump. Trump and his supporters say so and they have the final verdict on what truth is.
I agree. Its something to behold. True Trumpbots aren't going to see the light for a series of reasons:
1. They truly believe their man is the victim of persecution.
2. Even if he was the dirtiest crook in the world--in their minds--he'd be better than Obama, Hillary, or any democrat.
3. They don't get their news from CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, or any "mainstream" source. Even Fox News is questionable to many of them. These are folks who literally get their news from Alex Jones, News Max, or the Drudge Report. They don't understand why the rest of us don't do that either.
4. Even if they personally dislike Trump its much more important that he is delivering much of the hardcore conservative agenda they want. This would include conservative supreme court judges, repeal of the ACA, an end to gay marriage, an end to Roe v. Wade, more tax cuts for the wealthy, a very pro-Israel foreign policy, and--seriously--insults directed particularly at "socialist" European countries. Its really pretty sick when you come right down to it. However, this group finds it a lot easier to tell you what they are against than what they are for.
5. This is a big secret in this country that hasn't really gotten out. A huge chunk of Americans secretly admire crooked people who have made a lot of money. They don't want to jail them. They want to become one of them. Have you ever wondered why crime shows on t.v. never talk about white collar crime? The simple reason is that many listening would have too much sympathy for the criminals. Trump fits into this category and I think it will become more apparent he is such a white collar criminal as the investigations progress. However, it won't stop any, but a few of his supporters from worshipping him. This sad truth speaks volumes about America. However, its absolutely accurate.
6. After years of a bad economy, some people are finally back to where they were in 2008. We know the truth is that this is largely because of what was done during Obama's eight years in office, rather than less than two years of Trump. However, Trump supporters don't see it that way. They hate Obama and love Trump, so Trump is going to get credit even for what he clearly did not do.
Its not really about the polls which do show Trump losing support as of late. Its about the utter irrationality of diehard Trumpbots. Somedays, I believe a chemical was put in the water that has destroyed the minds of these people and made them hopeless sycophants. However, the truth is probably something like this: For eight years--under Obama--these people were literally seething. Suddenly, they had a chance at the presidency and its a dream come true for these haters.
Seems like a few facts mixed together with your own opinion.....
It certainly is my opinion, are we no longer allowed to express that here? As far as 'facts mixed together' what does that even mean and which facts are mixed together?
Gee glad we are being kept up to date on the polls the dems are enjoying posting. Some of us have more important things to do than pay attention to polls that mean nothing at this stage of the game.
And yet - you thought it was important to post this. Guess you don’t have anything much to do either.
history has no effect on probability.
if a you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up 100 times straight heads, what is the probability of heads on the next flip? 50%.
comparing a coin flip with polls showing Trump having a 1 or 2% chance of becoming President is quite the logic fail.
1 or 2% could be extreme but I know during the repub primaries I saw a CNN poll that gave Clinton a 75/25 favor over Trump in a head to head run, while Clinton/Rubio was a 50/50 one, illogical all the way around, but the source was CNN--so perhaps perfectly logical given that biased of a source.
I'm guessing the point went over your head.
Just because one result is opposite what a poll suggested (I never saw 2% chance of a Trump win, it was mostly 20-25%), doesn't mean all polls are garbage from here-on-out. That's the same way that just because you have a coin that goes heads twice in a row doesn't change that a coin flip is 50/50. It is unfortunate that we can't play out the 2016 election 4 times. Clinton might have won 3 of the 4 runs. But that's not how things work obviously.
What it does mean is that the next time there's an election and the polls are showing one candidate with a 75% shot of winning... I'd still put my money on that 75% candidate - the same way that if I'd put my money against a coin flipping heads twice in a row.
I agree. Its something to behold. True Trumpbots aren't going to see the light for a series of reasons:
1. They truly believe their man is the victim of persecution.
2. Even if he was the dirtiest crook in the world--in their minds--he'd be better than Obama, Hillary, or any democrat.
3. They don't get their news from CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, or any "mainstream" source. Even Fox News is questionable to many of them. These are folks who literally get their news from Alex Jones, News Max, or the Drudge Report. They don't understand why the rest of us don't do that either.
4. Even if they personally dislike Trump its much more important that he is delivering much of the hardcore conservative agenda they want. This would include conservative supreme court judges, repeal of the ACA, an end to gay marriage, an end to Roe v. Wade, more tax cuts for the wealthy, a very pro-Israel foreign policy, and--seriously--insults directed particularly at "socialist" European countries. Its really pretty sick when you come right down to it. However, this group finds it a lot easier to tell you what they are against than what they are for.
5. This is a big secret in this country that hasn't really gotten out. A huge chunk of Americans secretly admire crooked people who have made a lot of money. They don't want to jail them. They want to become one of them. Have you ever wondered why crime shows on t.v. never talk about white collar crime? The simple reason is that many listening would have too much sympathy for the criminals. Trump fits into this category and I think it will become more apparent he is such a white collar criminal as the investigations progress. However, it won't stop any, but a few of his supporters from worshipping him. This sad truth speaks volumes about America. However, its absolutely accurate.
6. After years of a bad economy, some people are finally back to where they were in 2008. We know the truth is that this is largely because of what was done during Obama's eight years in office, rather than less than two years of Trump. However, Trump supporters don't see it that way. They hate Obama and love Trump, so Trump is going to get credit even for what he clearly did not do.
Its not really about the polls which do show Trump losing support as of late. Its about the utter irrationality of diehard Trumpbots. Somedays, I believe a chemical was put in the water that has destroyed the minds of these people and made them hopeless sycophants. However, the truth is probably something like this: For eight years--under Obama--these people were literally seething. Suddenly, they had a chance at the presidency and its a dream come true for these haters.
Just when I get to thinking there is hope for you...
Trump got enough "anti-Hillary" votes and enough "pro Conservative Justice" to put him over the top. Failing to believe that fact, you go about creating a straw man who gets his news from whatever dingbat source you can assign him. Then you go into the "worship" chant and spin completely out of control with hater talk.
All this while a qualified Supreme Court nomination is being protested by screaming, crying people who have no idea what they are protesting.
It certainly is my opinion, are we no longer allowed to express that here? As far as 'facts mixed together' what does that even mean and which facts are mixed together?
You are telling Trump supporters they've been had. That alone is just your opinion, add to it that you think he is racist, his subservience to Putin, the world hates him, the tax plan didn't help the middle class, he surrounds himself with crooks and white nationalists , and that he is stupid. Seems pretty subjective to me.
And wow, you seem a bit defensive.
I'm just trying to figure out how I've been "had" ?
Status:
"I don't understand. But I don't care, so it works out."
(set 10 days ago)
35,636 posts, read 17,989,189 times
Reputation: 50678
Quote:
Originally Posted by thriftylefty
I always wondered how a billionaire and a millionaire convinced poor people that America wasn't great and that the system was broken. It is obviously working pretty well for them.
That will go down as one of the great mysteries of all time. HOW in the world did the coal miners, and former auto workers believe he is one of "them"? How in the world did that happen.
Status:
"I don't understand. But I don't care, so it works out."
(set 10 days ago)
35,636 posts, read 17,989,189 times
Reputation: 50678
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy
Last I checked, the final estimate of Trump's chances were 1 in 4 on the morning of the election. That's not 1 in 100. That's 1 in 4. And the national popular vote margin was spot on (estimated to be about 2% and it was 2.1%)
It doesn't make the polls wrong that the leading candidate lost. It makes your interpretation of it wrong.
Think of it this way. I think we'd all agree that if we flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of getting heads and a 50% chance of getting tails. Now, if I told you to flip a coin on Nov 8 2016 and if it came up heads twice in a row, that is equal to the chance of Trump winning, I think you'd realize the chances weren't great, but he indeed had a chance.
Now, Trump won. It came up heads twice. Does it mean that coins don't have a 50% chance to land on tails just because you got heads twice? No, of course not. There's a track history showing that coins generally have a 50% chance of showing heads on a flip.
And saying "polls are wrong" is the same as saying coins don't have a 50/50 chance because you found one instance where you got heads twice in a row as opposed to the track history that shows that they can be fairly accurate.
The reason the polls were wrong on the election, is people were lying about how they voted/intended to vote.
I can only guess at the motivation, except embarrassment. Why else would you exit a poll and lie about how you voted?
It's the same thing, in a microcosm in Texas. You see Beto signs everywhere, and very few Cruz signs, but it's likely Cruz will win. But people who intend to vote for him don't brag about it to their neighbors.
At this rate soon only 1/3 of the country, the lowest in history (well, it already beats that for a modern POTUS) will "approve" of the 5th grader.
I wonder, at that point, if this tiny minority will still think they are the "right" ones and that 2/3 of the country and 95% of the rest of the world is wrong.
That will go down as one of the great mysteries of all time. HOW in the world did the coal miners, and former auto workers believe he is one of "them"? How in the world did that happen.
Let's face it ClaraC, no person running for the office of president is ever going to be one of most of "us" or them. Any thought of the common man winning high office is ludicrous.
But he tapped into their fears and insecurities and promised them something he could never deliver. That is the part that I don't understand. If you have half a brain, you could know that those were empty promises, but apparently, all a candidate has to do is pretend to care, pat you on the back and say "there, there" (metaphorically) and it works. I would venture to say that this is the same thing that happens in every election to some degree, although to duping in this one was particularly exaggerated.
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