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As we are approaching the 8 month mark of the Trump presidency There seems to be some observations that both sides are suffering from cranial rectal insertion If either sides hopes to be successful in 2018 or 2020 they need to open up their eyes a little bit.
Dems:
1) Trump won before HE CAN WIN AGAIN. I know I know it was a fluke victory (like Clinton 92), he lost the popular vote (like Bush 2000) and people wanted to elect someone different (like Obama 2008) and he has no chance of being reelected...much like the other presidents had no chance of being reelected...except they were.
2) While I do think Trump and the Russians played some shenanigans in the election, there is one major flaw that Hillary Clinton's campaign did..she put the majority of her eggs in the "Coastal cities", Hillary was more concerned about running up the score in the safe spots..NY, CA and similar then she was in state that were blue for years but normally close (PA, MI and WI most obvious) those 3 states combined gave trump a margin of victory of less than 100,000 votes, why am I bringing this up...it seems to be that the top choices for the Dems in 2020 are more people from these coastal cities (Warren, Harris, for the sake of discussion Sanders), while me personally is reasonably progressive and would vote for these candidates Democrats must look at the big picture There are plenty of Dems in the middle of the country that can carry the message but not come off as a coastal elitist...(that is Warren to a T) Sherrod Brown, Amy Klouchbar (spelling butchered I know) dems hold governorship in LA and NC states Trump won..ironically enough Dems get out of the "safe space"
3) and while we are on Trump and Russia, Trump is shady and probobably did collude, however my belief is NOT beyond a reasonable doubt at this moment in time Let Mueller build a case and work from there...also as I said before in other post...it would be a miracle beyond anything ever mentioned in the bible if 24 GOP congressmen vote to impeach and 19 GOP senators vote to convict. DOn't place all your eggs on impeaching trump, that will motivate his base (who call him Trump Christ, or Lord Jesus Trump or Trump Jesus) and could hurt in midterms.
GOP your turn.
1) Again say it with me...Obama served 2 terms and can never ever run for president again, Hillary Clinton Lost and will never ever run again...hell even if she tries in 2020 I doubt she would get more than a handful of delegates..her time has passed...why am I mentioning them? Because every time Trump gets in trouble, every time he doesn't "win" The rallying call is..But Obama, But Hillary, But her e-mails, BENGHAZI!!! it might of worked in 2016, but with a new face in 2020 When Trump has his back to the wall he can;t say, "Crooked Hillary E-mails" "Lock her up" (which would be funny if he tried that 4 years after the election)
2) Trump cares about "winning" and public image. If you think he is a true conservative you're fooling yourselves. Lets say tax reform raises taxes on wealthy (which conservatives hate with a passion) he will say I win I passed tax reform. Lets say he works with Dems to fix DACA it could help with some moderates and latino..yay my public image is good..even though he promised conservatives deportation. Do you still believe a wall is being built? No seriously do you?
3) Yes trump had minor things he promised Conservative supreme court pick..with the help of shadyness from GOP, he can;t ride that for 4 years, Executive actions can be overturned, just like Trump overturned Obama the next Dem can Overturn Trumps he has done an OK job with initial hurricane response (but after Bush flop of Katrina everyone knows do the opposite of what Bush did) lets see month from now when the hurricane is not on the front page. But what does he have dragging him down at this current moment (of course with the acknowledgment alot can happen in 4 years) He hasn't defeated ISIS in 30 days as promised, N. Korea has gotten worse, his "fantastic" Obamacare repeal is still a secret,no tax reform as of yet, seems to be shifting in winds with DACA, No wall, DOJ publicly stated "No evidence of wiretapping by Obama at Trump Tower", outpacing Obama in golf rounds when he promised he wouldn't, lots of time away from the white house when he promised he wouldn't (for the record I do not begrudge any President some R&R its the toughest job in the world but don't campaign against your predecessor golfing and taking a vacation then doing the same thing at a faster rate). Zero proof of voter fraud.
I don't totally agree that Ms. Clinton banked on the east and west coasts to give her the win. I do think that the Democrats need, desperately, to nurture their party in the rural middle of the country. There were four races on my ballot last November where the Democrats did not even field a candidate. That's around twenty percent of the ballot. I don't know if it is a cash flow issue or the party just can't find recruits... or both.
Believe it or not, there are plenty of people with Democratic Party sympathies in these parts. However, I don't think the DNC believes it.
I don't totally agree that Ms. Clinton banked on the east and west coasts to give her the win. I do think that the Democrats need, desperately, to nurture their party in the rural middle of the country. There were four races on my ballot last November where the Democrats did not even field a candidate. That's around twenty percent of the ballot. I don't know if it is a cash flow issue or the party just can't find recruits... or both.
Believe it or not, there are plenty of people with Democratic Party sympathies in these parts. However, I don't think the DNC believes it.
That goes back to my point of banking on the coast. I'm from the NYC area so just like I don;t want some rural evangelical trying to legislate morality (in the name of small government) The rural middle can be turned off by some of the coastal cities identity games and not as quick to embrace gay/transgender rights, or a rising non-religious population. or in some smaller sections growing number of religious but non-Christians (i.e. Jewish, Muslim, Hindu,etc), mixed race relationships, or a growing black,hispanic, asian etc population or whatever the case may be, does it make the middle wrong? absolutely not, does it make the coastal cities wrong? again no it doesn't, the bigger problem at hand for the democrats is that there is a significant portion of the democrat base that expect someone running for house/senate/governor/state-rep in lets say suburban Ohio, suburban Illinois, North Carolina, Georgia, places that are purple or trending purple..(i.e. winnable with flexibility from the national Dems) to be in 100% lockstep with someone from my town or LA/San Fransisco.
A pro-gun Dem can win in Georgia Suburbs or even statewide but nope, the Dems have to push the Gun-control Dem or be abandoned.
A Dem with favors some abortions restrictions (while keeping it legal mind you) in Omaha (an area that voted for Obama and give him a Nebraska electoral vote in 2008) doesn't get a dime from national dems because their attitude 100% pro-choice no wiggle room.
I think most Americans believe in compromise...if states started to pass laws that outlaw gerrymandering and draw fairer district by population not party (something BOTH side are horrifically guilty of) We could..shutter to think about it...see more solutions pass in this country
OP, your insight seems pretty good. a little refinement here though, in 2016 hillary had no real message other than "vote for me because trump is a jackass". trump on the other hand at least put out a positive, "lets move forward and make american great again".
as for trumps promises, i take them with the same grain of salt as i do the promises of all politicians. i figure that being a "deal maker" trump was going to work with both sides of the isle to get things he wanted done. this of course means compromise, and perhaps not getting everything he wants. take the border wall for instance. he might get some of the wall built, beyond what is already done, but it will probably come in bits and pieces over time, and it may not get fully built.
the democrats if they are going to start winning elections nationally again, are going to have to end the identity politics and embrace everyone.
Need to loosen up on gun control and abortion. Those 2 issues are killers with a wide swath of the country.
Republicans
Still need to make peace with changing demographics. White America is rapidly aging. Their core base of older and/or less well educated Whites won't be around forever.
That said in the long run (15-20 years down the line) the Democrats will be in much better shape than the Republicans will be. The Republicans think they will forever be able to cruise to victory on White identity politics. It worked in 2016 ... it wont work come the mid 2020s and 2030s. As I've said before, the GOP wave won't last forever ... and the Republicans need to start gently easing away from the politics of White racial resentment. The 1950s are not coming back.
Need to loosen up on gun control and abortion. Those 2 issues are killers with a wide swath of the country.
Republicans
Still need to make peace with changing demographics. White America is rapidly aging. Their core base of older and/or less well educated Whites won't be around forever.
That said in the long run (15-20 years down the line) the Democrats will be in much better shape than the Republicans will be. The Republicans think they will forever be able to cruise to victory on White identity politics. It worked in 2016 ... it wont work come the mid 2020s and 2030s. As I've said before, the GOP wave won't last forever ... and the Republicans need to start gently easing away from the politics of White racial resentment. The 1950s are not coming back.
Why do think the democrats need to loosen up about abortion? Do you think they should agree with the minority of the country to overturn Roe vs Wade?
I don't totally agree that Ms. Clinton banked on the east and west coasts to give her the win. I do think that the Democrats need, desperately, to nurture their party in the rural middle of the country. There were four races on my ballot last November where the Democrats did not even field a candidate. That's around twenty percent of the ballot. I don't know if it is a cash flow issue or the party just can't find recruits... or both.
Believe it or not, there are plenty of people with Democratic Party sympathies in these parts. However, I don't think the DNC believes it.
Dems will field more candidates in 2018 than anyone would have believed just 12 months ago. And dem challengers filed and paid up in record numbers, biggest numbers i am aware and over twice as many as the GOP wave of 2010..
I would expect to see Dems running in places they have little hope of winning and i would expect to see dems much more focused on 2020 than 2018. I believe leaving the GOP in full control until 2020 will allow the public to really see just how bad the GOP really is.
Need to loosen up on gun control and abortion. Those 2 issues are killers with a wide swath of the country.
Republicans
Still need to make peace with changing demographics. White America is rapidly aging. Their core base of older and/or less well educated Whites won't be around forever.
That said in the long run (15-20 years down the line) the Democrats will be in much better shape than the Republicans will be. The Republicans think they will forever be able to cruise to victory on White identity politics. It worked in 2016 ... it wont work come the mid 2020s and 2030s. As I've said before, the GOP wave won't last forever ... and the Republicans need to start gently easing away from the politics of White racial resentment. The 1950s are not coming back.
100% on point here although I think the gun issue is the bigger Killer for the Dems than abortion.
Most crime committed by guns are through guns being obtained by illegal means, legal gun ownership crimes are nowhere near as high as the left want people to believe...are there bad apples of course but you shouldn't punish the majority because of poor actions of a minority.
As far as abortion, Most people don't want it outlawed completely...even some (not all) hardcore anti-abortionist are willing to "look the other way" in cases of rape, incest, save life of mother, baby is not viable..i.e vital organs are too severely undeveloped, Personally, I am always an advocate of better access to contraception..condoms, pills, iud, sex ed in general will help reduce abortions far more than outlawing it...classic argument we outlaw drugs but heroin overdoses are on the rise...some of the strictest gun controls laws in the us have the worst gun crimes and so forth
Dems will field more candidates in 2018 than anyone would have believed just 12 months ago. And dem challengers filed and paid up in record numbers, biggest numbers i am aware and over twice as many as the GOP wave of 2010..
I would expect to see Dems running in places they have little hope of winning and i would expect to see dems much more focused on 2020 than 2018. I believe leaving the GOP in full control until 2020 will allow the public to really see just how bad the GOP really is.
In politics its easier to play offense than defense...Trump for better or worse is not exactly the great savior a large majority of his hardcore supporters thought he was going to be so some of the GOP politicians are taking a back seat to challenging dems in house/senate/governorship till more favorable times (dems reclaim white house)
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