Trump's narrow-ish Rust Belt victory of 2016 was an anomaly? Maybe not.

[Westie15]

If you win Ohio, you probably win the election

[mkpunk]

Originally Posted by Westie15

If you win Ohio, you probably win the election

Not really, depends on the math. Ohio was not as close as they were in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and even Arizona. Arizona was the highest at about 3% margin while Ohio was a 8% margin. Lose four of those five and Trump could be done without Ohio.

[Westie15]

Historically it's true

[njforlife92]

Originally Posted by wallbuilder

In fact, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have been trending slightly more Red for the past 15-20 years as the "Reagan Democrats" identify less with the team Blue.

See the 2014 PEW Research study:
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-l...tion/by/state/

Wisconsin = 42% Republican/lean Republican, 42% Democratic/lean Democratic
Michigan = 47% Democratic/lean Democratic, 34% Republican/lean Republican
Pennsylvania = 39% Democratic/lean Democratic, 46% Democratic/lean Democratic

I believe that Trump's victory in the rust belt can be attributed to his winning by impressive margins in rural communities and doing slightly better than Mitt Romney with African American voters. Furthermore, Trump won independent voters, according to a CNN report, by a 46%-42% margin. He also managed to win 53% of the white female vote which, while less than Mitt Romney's 56% in 2012 and George W. Bush's 55% in 2004, is decent.

The challenge for Trump is there seems to be some evidence that he is now less popular with women now than he was in 2016. He clearly isn't popular with independents, in fact I think he won the independent vote simply because he's not Clinton. So he's basically relying on rural voters and hoping that he builds on his African American support.

Joe Biden makes this very difficult for him. Biden is very popular with African American voters given his record on civil rights and his serving as Vice President under history's first African American President in which they put in place policies that are quite popular in the African American community. Furthermore, Biden is a strong candidate with female voters given he's the author of the Violence Against Women Act and has been a strong advocate for women's health care and equality in the workplace as U.S. Senator and Vice President. Biden also appeals to many rural voters because of his biography, support for unions, and advocacy for the bailout of GM.

As a general rule, I think the key to Democrats winning national elections is getting high turnout amongst non-white voters, winning over some white female voters, and basically having a tie with independent voters. For Republicans, it's about getting above roughly 57% of the rural vote, winning the suburbs, having a tie or winning with independents, winning white female voters by comfortable margins, and having some support with Hispanic voters. I believe that Joe Biden is more capable of delivering the criteria I propose here for Democrats than Trump is for Republicans, plus I believe he's in a position to do better than Clinton in suburbs and to win independents by a comfortable margin.

[residinghere2007]

MI in particular in 2016 was an anomaly. Primarily because many voters in the Democratic bastions of the state didn't vote for either presidential candidate at all. Tens of thousands of people in MI in 2016 in metro Detroit didn't vote for either presidential candidate and voter turnout amongst the black population decreased for the first time since the 1980s.

I don't see Trump winning MI at all in 2020. Maybe he can pull it off, but I don't see it happening.

I live in OH and I don't think OH is as red for Trump as many Trump supporters believe. I know a lot of Republicans in OH and half of them don't like Trump and I don't think they will vote for Trump. Many of them did in 2020 just because he was more of an unknown and they despised HRC. Since she is not in the mix for 2020, it is a toss up if a significant amount of Ohio Republican "Never Trump" voters will support Trump. I have family members who are elected committee representatives of our GOP where I live (which is a "blue" corner of OH) and most of them live in our suburbs which are more red. Many of them have even stated they'd vote for Elizabeth Warren, which was a shock to me.

I think WI was a fluke in 2020 and it is a guarantee he won't win WI. PA I don't know as much about. But I do think OH is in play for him, MI is not and WI is not. OH maybe but we've had a lot of job losses here in areas that supported Trump. And farmers are not happy with these tarrifs.

[James Bond 007]

Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid

The moment usually comes during Greg Petras’s commute through the rolling hills and cornfields of southern Wisconsin. Somewhere between his home near Madison and the factory he runs on the edge of the small town of Brodhead, the news will turn to the trade wars and Donald Trump will again claim that China is bearing the cost of his tariffs. That’s when Petras loses it.

“It’s just an outright lie, and he knows it,” says Petras, president of Kuhn North America, which employs some 600 people at its farm-equipment factory in Wisconsin. For Kuhn, Trump’s trade war has produced a toxic mix of rising costs and falling revenues. “You’re slamming your fist on the steering wheel and saying ‘Why would you tell people this?’”

About 250 Kuhn employees spent the Labor Day holiday caught in a two-week furlough, and they’re facing another in early October. A shrinking order book means Kuhn is cutting costs and slashing production as Petras and his managers peer out at a U.S. economy that looks far bleaker from the swing-state heartland than it does in either the White House or on Wall Street.