If the Fed raises interest rates 1/2% in March, what happens next? (generation, premium)

[Eyebee Teepee]

Originally Posted by Leo58

I’ll give you this - you have correctly identified the fact that Presidents, and government in general, can’t do much to control the economy. Recessions, stock markets, unemployment should not be blamed or credited to the President.

What the Fed should do is follow up with more interest rate hikes until inflation comes back down to reasonable territory. Rescind the Trump tax cuts to ameliorate effects on the deficit. As you said, tax increases slow economic growth, which is our problem right now. Inflation = too much growth.

which ones? The corporate rate which has led to lower CIT receipts?

Or the personal ones, that have led to HIGHER income tax receipts?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A074RC1Q027SBEA

[albert648]

Originally Posted by lifeexplorer

LOL. A balanced budget simply means more taxes and more spending.

A good way is adding another condition: no more than x% of the gdp.

This. No more than 10%. And GDP = the lesser of the average of the last 5 years or last year's GDP.

[Eyebee Teepee]

Originally Posted by BlakeJones

Mortgage rates spiking, now at 4.10%:
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mo.../30-year-fixed

that is close to a 3 year high. This will easily go over 5% and the sky is the limit if the fed keeps raising

it's still < 1/2 of the average rate until 2009. We were around 4% for most of Obama, and the market was just fine.

Rates rising from 3 to 4 = 15% drop in price range. Today, people are bidding up the price of housing by 15% over 6 months ago.

[hooligan]

Originally Posted by BlakeJones

Yes money is still cheap. If rates go way up easy money will evaporate and the economy is going to tank as high debt borrowers can't push off their reckoning anymore

Define "way up". Also, "if" is carrying a pretty heavy burden in your statement.

[hooligan]

Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee

it's still < 1/2 of the average rate until 2009. We were around 4% for most of Obama, and the market was just fine.

Rates rising from 3 to 4 = 15% drop in price range. Today, people are bidding up the price of housing by 15% over 6 months ago.

Reps to you!

[Eyebee Teepee]

Originally Posted by BlakeJones

Yes money is still cheap. If rates go way up easy money will evaporate and the economy is going to tank as high debt borrowers can't push off their reckoning anymore

the US Government is the world's #1 high debt borrower.

Corporations don't owe much on loans.
Those in the top 10% of earners don't owe much on rate-sensitive loans.

[Taggerung]

They won't raise rates, and if they do, they'll quickly reverse course when the farcical bubble economy begins to unravel.

[Freak80]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

You're delusional. The reason for the rampant inflation is the excessive spending and the war on fossil fuels. Both on Biden.

Yes, obviously. Forget the Federal Reserve and global supply chain problems caused by the pandemic. The inflation is obviously caused by that evilsocialist Joe Biden.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by greywar

imagine if we only spent 565 Billion on our military and made it focus on defending us instead of the 715 billion we spend to be the world police.

I will say this-Trump was right about getting other NATO nations to contribute as they are supposed too.

Agreed! I know Trump did make sone headway, but he just got the ball rolling. I'm afraid we might be falling back to our old ways again of paying to defend everyone else.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by James Bond 007

The Fed has raised interest rates many times before without anybody else having to do anything else, and the sky has not fallen. Why should this time be any different?

#1 because the feds are already admitting to having the highest inflation in 40 years at 7.5%, and producer inflation is 9.5% which means consumer inflation of 7.5% will be heading higher because it trails producer inflation. Most know the feds are grossly understating the real inflation rates that we are all seeing in the marketplace every day for cars, homes, rent, food, energy, & everything else.

#2 is interest on our debt. It is gobbling up the rest of the budgetary pie chart like pac man. Interest expenses are nearing the total America spends on national defense!

#3 when we increased interest rates before to slow the economy, we had much higher GDP growth than we have now, so we could afford to slow it down w/o causing a recession. If we put the brakes on too hard in March, we'll fall into a recession before election day.

#4 our entire economy and healthcare system is fragile due to a global pandemic. When was the last time we had one of those killing millions? Does rocking the boat now make sense, when we are just now removing covid mandates?

So, now that I've explained to you why this time is different, what would you do, and why?