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We have known for months since the Fed started 75 bps raises into a weak economy, that we were heading for a recession. We just don't know how deep or how long. Housing leads. The wild card here is how long will the Fed leave the Fed Funds rate at 5%. A quarter or a year or more?
This doesn't look to be a V-shaped recession, but if the Fed chickens out and slams rates back down, then it will be, but inflation will take off again.
Anybody have a crystal ball I can borrow? Low miles, cheap.
I like how the yeild curve mimicks 1982, just like inflation. I mean, it stands to reason that if inflation is as bad as 1982, and the Fed is fighting it like 1982, then the resulting recession will be like 1982.
Brutal. I graduated in engineering into the 82 Reagan Recession and it took 2 years to get a job. 100 applications. 33 sit down interviews. Lots of waiting tables meanwhile. Brutal. I hated it. An engineering diploma should be a walk-on job offer. It normally is.
We have known for months since the Fed started 75 bps raises into a weak economy, that we were heading for a recession. We just don't know how deep or how long. Housing leads. The wild card here is how long will the Fed leave the Fed Funds rate at 5%. A quarter or a year or more?
This doesn't look to be a V-shaped recession, but if the Fed chickens out and slams rates back down, then it will be, but inflation will take off again.
Anybody have a crystal ball I can borrow? Low miles, cheap.
I like how the yeild curve mimicks 1982, just like inflation. I mean, it stands to reason that if inflation is as bad as 1982, and the Fed is fighting it like 1982, then the resulting recession will be like 1982.
Brutal. I graduated in engineering into the 82 Reagan Recession and it took 2 years to get a job. 100 applications. 33 sit down interviews. Lots of waiting tables meanwhile. Brutal. I hated it. An engineering diploma should be a walk-on job offer. It normally is.
Just a little insight for the others who never do any research. This is just a snippet, but the entire read is very interesting. We are right on track with it again.
Once a President passes bad legislation which creates massive inflation (CarterInflation and now Bidenflation), recession follows due to what the FED has to do to correct it. Biden inherited a great situation and he blew it. Reagan inherited a bad situation and had to work to make it better.
"Volcker’s first attempt to lower inflation and inflationary expectations proved insufficient. The credit-control program initiated in March 1980 by the Carter administration precipitated a sharp recession (Schreft 1990). As unemployment mounted, the Fed eased up, an action reminiscent of the “stop-go” policies the public had come to expect. In late 1980 and early 1981, the Fed once again tightened the money supply, allowing the federal funds rate to approach 20 percent. Despite this, long-run interest rates continued to rise. The ten-year Treasury bond rate increased from about 11 percent in October 1980 to more than 15 percent a year later, possibly because the market believed the Fed would back down from its tight policy when unemployment rose (Goodfriend and King 2005). This time, however, Volcker was adamant that the Fed not back down: “We have set our course to restrain growth in money and credit. We mean to stick with it” (Volcker 1981a).
The economy officially entered a recession in the third quarter of 1981, as high interest rates put pressure on sectors of the economy reliant on borrowing, like manufacturing and construction. Unemployment grew from 7.4 percent at the start of the recession to nearly 10 percent a year later. As the recession worsened, Volcker faced repeated calls from Congress to loosen monetary policy, but he maintained that failing to bring down long-run inflation expectations now would result in “more serious economic circumstances over a much longer period of time” (Monetary Policy Report 1982, 67)."
Fear not, for increasing the number of IRS agents from 78,000 to 165,000 so that a few more bucks can be extracted from people who sometimes choose between eating and electricity will surely resolve the problem! If the armed agents happen to shoot your dog, that's a bonus cost savings attributable to Uncle Sam. Eating insects will be fantastic, too. Additionally, like some leftists have been saying, you can expect to reliably save money by getting an abortion — and it's all good for the planet! A real WIN/WIN. Vote blue no matter who.
I dunno about you, but I can't count all of the ways in which I'm excited for the coming neo-progressive utopia. Tickled beyond words. Truly.
Anyone paying attention knows that Biden's goal is to destroy the United States of America. He is well on his way to doing so. Next few weeks should be dynamic.
We have known for months since the Fed started 75 bps raises into a weak economy, that we were heading for a recession. We just don't know how deep or how long. Housing leads. The wild card here is how long will the Fed leave the Fed Funds rate at 5%. A quarter or a year or more?
This doesn't look to be a V-shaped recession, but if the Fed chickens out and slams rates back down, then it will be, but inflation will take off again.
Anybody have a crystal ball I can borrow? Low miles, cheap.
I like how the yeild curve mimicks 1982, just like inflation. I mean, it stands to reason that if inflation is as bad as 1982, and the Fed is fighting it like 1982, then the resulting recession will be like 1982.
Brutal. I graduated in engineering into the 82 Reagan Recession and it took 2 years to get a job. 100 applications. 33 sit down interviews. Lots of waiting tables meanwhile. Brutal. I hated it. An engineering diploma should be a walk-on job offer. It normally is.
Engineering had been that way for some time. I graduated in 1970 in aerospace engineering, just when Apollo was winding down and no real future plans. Fortunately, I'd been a co-op student while in school so got a job. But aerospace/defense didn't improve until Reagan was president. Engineering hasn't been a ripe field for all that long.
Fear not, for increasing the number of IRS agents from 78,000 to 165,000 so that a few more bucks can be extracted from people who sometimes choose between eating and electricity will surely resolve the problem! If the armed agents happen to shoot your dog, that's a bonus cost savings attributable to Uncle Sam. Eating insects will be fantastic, too. Additionally, like some leftists have been saying, you can expect to reliably save money by getting an abortion — and it's all good for the planet! A real WIN/WIN. Vote blue no matter who.
I dunno about you, but I can't count all of the ways in which I'm excited for the coming neo-progressive utopia. Tickled beyond words. Truly.
Can someone explain to me how I can "do my research" without the dreaded "fact checking". If you're not checking facts what the heck are you researching, opinions?
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