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A real disconnect between the actual data and the polling in the 7 swing states and others. Economic data indicates one thing perception quite another.
Quote:
Many Americans believe that the economy and their finances are worse than they really are
This assessment, which holds across all seven states, is startling, sobering—and simply not true. I’m not stating an opinion. This isn’t something on which reasonable people can disagree. If hard economic data count for anything, we can say unambiguously that inflation has moved in the right direction in the past year.
Last week we learned that the economy, far from sliding toward recession as economists had predicted over the past year, has actually picked up steam thanks to indefatigable consumers.
Not only has economic output made up all the ground lost during the pandemic but it is above where it would have been had the pandemic never happened, judging by what the Congressional Budget Office projected in early 2020.
So if the economy is so good, why are Americans so gloomy? Confidence readings are depressed. Some 69% of respondents to a Journal survey in August said the country is headed in the wrong direction. President Biden’s approval ratings are mired around or below 40%, and approval for his handling of the economy is even lower.
The Unemployment Rate only counts people who are looking for work. And it's interesting how the article hinted at the Labor Participation Rate but didn't give specifics. Probably for good reason. In February 2020 it was 63.3%, in February 2024 it was 62.5%, and has never gotten back to the level it was Pre-Covid.
People can be told all day long that the unemployment rate is low, and inflation is "coming down". But what they see is their day-to-day lives. Every time they go to the Store they see increased prices. The standard Liberal Response of "Everything is great" or "If you are struggling it's your fault... You either need to economize better or find a better job...well unless you are a Minimum Wage employee then here is a 25% raise" doesn't cut it.
When a guy who’s worked at UPS for countless years told me last week the packages they process are way down, this means economy is thriving off the charts. So much so, he told me they’ve fired many people at his two hubs he deals with. When the economy is bursting at the seems, people buy less and being fired is giant promotion right?
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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The perception and the actual are both dependent on the person and the place, and is completely different for different people. There are those that cannot afford an apartment without roommates, those that want to buy a house but cannot due to the prices and the interest rates, and the families with kids struggling to pay bills with gas, food and everything else so expensive. The homeless situation is worse than ever, with their tents popping up in more places, expanding to the suburbs.
Meanwhile, those with a good income are doing just fine, with their low-interest loans or paid off mortgages, great salaries and benefits, and ability to pay cash for homes. Here for example the median home price is $1.6 million yet
homes sell with multiple offers in a week or less. The concern is not the economy, it's crime, as in the last year or two areas traditionally crime-free have begun to suffer from car prowls and retail theft.
A large part of the gloom is expectations. Inflation has been difficult for most post Covid. But it is easing. There are those that expect inflation to continue to mitigate, and those feeling it will continue at a high rate. About half the country of a more conservative bent agree with the latter. Not to mention it is politically advantageous to support those feelings because there is an election approaching and "It's the economy, stupid!"
Before the 2008 crash if you were posting on political forums, you might understand why so many conservatives did not see the crash coming.
The economy (GDP growth) since 2020 has been buoyed by federal deficit spending. Take away the huge federal spending spree, and real economic growth would be negative. This is not healthy or normal by any historical measure, we are living in a giant MMT experiment.
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