So, maybe that switch was a good idea! (McCain, Pelosi, poll)

[golfgod]

One of the reasons Arlen Specter, D-PA gave for his switch was that he couldn't win a primary against the right wing/club for "growth" candidate Pat Toomey. At the end of March a Quinnipiac poll showed him trailing Toomey by about 14 points.

But today another poll by Quinnipiac showed Specter leading Toomey by 20 points in a general election poll. Hmmm, what a difference a month makes.

Although it is too early to make any hard predictions on the outcome in the general I'd say Specter is feeling pretty good this morning.

In another development in PA it turns out that Republican party "moderates" (RINOs to the "base") are still trying to work on former Governor Tom Ridge to enter the R primary against Toomey. This could set off an inter-party fight and help Specter, who isn't out of the woods regarding primary challengers.

golfgod

[thefinalsay]

it was a good political decision.

[AeroGuyDC]

Tom Ridge may just mop the floor with Arlen Specter if he gets the Republican nomination. Republicans will undoubtedly drop loads of money into Ridge's campaign, which will even the playing field in a fight against Specter. I'd love to see those two duke it out.

[golfgod]

AeroguyDC reiterated my point about Ridge, and a Ridge primary run against Toomey would be interesting to see. But, it would really split the R party wouldn't it? IIRC Ridge is pro-choice and more centrist, Toomey is a hard right, club for growth, "base" guy. PA is a pretty expensive state to run a full out primary campaign, or any other campaign for that matter.

With the RNC, and what's left of the R senate caucus being more righty than centrist I don't see too much "leadership" strength getting behind Ridge.

The recent Quinnipiac poll did show Specter beating Ridge at present, about 46-43, but a lot of that spread, like McCain's post convention bounce is more "recency and frequency" of news mentions than solid support. I don't think Ridge has been on TV 24/7 during the last few months, like Specter has.

This should be a more interesting Senate battle than the typical "off-year" election usually produces. In fact almost all of the "competitive" states; KY, MO, KS, FL and a couple of others, should be great entertainment in 2010.

I can hardly wait.

golfgod

[Bill Keegan]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

Tom Ridge may just mop the floor with Arlen Specter if he gets the Republican nomination. Republicans will undoubtedly drop loads of money into Ridge's campaign, which will even the playing field in a fight against Specter. I'd love to see those two duke it out.

This election may end up being tougher than Specter thought it would be. In his speech announcing the shift to the democrat party, he offhandedly mentioned that he would, on request, return funds to anyone who contributed to his campaign while he was still a RINO. I thhink he expected few if any would make the demand. Several contributors have stepped forward and demanded their money back, and others are calling for him to proactively return every penny he recieved (which is just under $2million in the first three months of '09.). I guess he can count on his new friends, President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, to make up the difference.

[sanrene]

Tom Ridge will probably be his opponent - and they are neck and neck.

A lot of fodder Ridge will have, as well.

[golfgod]

Sanrene wrote;

Tom Ridge will probably be his opponent - and they are neck and neck.

Well, maybe. But as I wrote in my post above, how is the "centrist" wing of the party going to get the PRO CHOICE Ridge on the ticket? Are Toomey and the rest of the "base" going to roll over for that?

I think we're in for an interesting primary season. Get some popcorn, pull up a chair and prepare to be entertained!

golfgod