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Jeez!!! These numbers are typically estimated in one of two ways -- projections and models. These are run by various public and private sector analysis shops. CEA runs two. CBO runs two. The Fed runs several, but they don't publish regularly, and outfits such as Moody's, IHS Global Insight, Goldman-Sachs, Macroeconomic Advisers, and so on also do such analyses. When all oif these run in the same ballpark, you've got a pretty good idea that the analyses are on track. The two CEA estimates as of Dec 31 were 1.8 and 2.1 million jobs present in the economy that would not have been without the stimulus bill. CBO estimates both the lowest possible and highest possible numbers it thinks it could be. Those are 0.8 million and 2.4 million. The three private sector sources participating in the second quarter report run between 1.1 million and 1.6 million. So what number would you use?
I don't like computer models. They're not objective.
Why have we lost so many jobs since the act was passed? I just can't figure that at all.
By September 2008, better than $15 trillion worth of private wealth had been lost from US real estate and equity markets. People stopped spending. The credit markets froze. Businesses stopped spending. When no one spends, there is no one to buy what a business produces, so it lays some people off and puts other on part-time. That results in even less income and hence even less spending and hence even less demand and hence even more layoffs. Lather, rinse, repeat. That's what a downward spiral is, and that's what we were in. We are not fully out of it yet...
President Barack Obama said that he "would rather be a really good one-term president" than have two mediocre terms.
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