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I have to side with Seth who at 95 has seen this scenario before living during the depression.The old saying that history repeats itself could hold true,if you recall there was a market fall and then a rally.And of course everyone got back in and promptly lost their shirts.Since old Seth is still trading he must of knew what he was doing back then and what to do now.
The other guy Bernstein is a former Merril Lynch strategist, and from what took place with his company would you follow his advice?Lets see he thinks that the 785 stimulus when it is spent will give a boost to the economy.I wouild hope it did not take him more then 2 minutes to figure out that flinging 785 billion of borrowed money you would get some kind of boost.Don't you think?
I am sure their will be boasting on the forum if the unemployment rate goes from 9.7% to 9.6% or consumer spending rises .05% etc etc ad nausem.Some will claim there is so many green shoots they turned into bean stalks and Jack is climbing them.
But thanks for the story,old Seth is some man to still have his wits and trading at 95.I choose to be on his team he would have to know more then some failed Merril Lynch strategist.
Statistically speaking, net job losses by month should stagnate through at least the middle of the year. In all past recessions, jobs stayed +/-50k of 0 for several months following the first return of job growth (November 2009 in our case). Thus far, the trend is holding true, with January showing -26,000 and February showing -36,000. March will probably be positive by the same amounts.
The DOW will probably rise much slower this year, perhaps hitting 11,000 again within the next few months depending on how PIGS in Europe fix their debt issues.. It will probably be years before we return to 14,000+ levels seen during the peak of the business cycle in 2007.
Finally, if quarterly GDP growth can top 5% consistently this year we will see a steady drop in the unemployment rate, any less than 5% and job creation will fall short.
In any case, we will have to wait a few more months before seeing if a recovery is indeed in full swing..
There is no question that the government is falsely holding up the the current real estate market (residential) with a blank check to Fannie/Freddie and extended credits to homebuyers set to expire next month. What happens then? The government has bills to pay and it would not surprise me if within the next few years potential homebuyers face double digit mortgage interest rates as were seen in the early 1980's.
What IF Cape & Tax as well as Socialized Healthcare pass? How will a nation with double digit unemployment and negligible averages of personal savings absorb the additional taxes and resulting inflation?
How will the government deal with $800 billion in debt interest payments/year (near term assuming interest rates remain constant with today) as a result of tripling our national debt through broadened entitlement programs?
What happens when China and others finally stop buying ANY of our debt? China is already leveraging our debt to attempt to influence our foreign policy.
There is no question that the government is falsely holding up the the current real estate market (residential) with a blank check to Fannie/Freddie and extended credits to homebuyers set to expire next month. What happens then? The government has bills to pay and it would not surprise me if within the next few years potential homebuyers face double digit mortgage interest rates as were seen in the early 1980's.
You should read my fanny and freddy have fun thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal
What IF Cape & Tax as well as Socialized Healthcare pass? How will a nation with double digit unemployment and negligible averages of personal savings absorb the additional taxes and resulting inflation?
We wont it will bankrupt us. just take a look at Greese
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal
How will the government deal with $800 billion in debt interest payments/year (near term assuming interest rates remain constant with today) as a result of tripling our national debt through broadened entitlement programs?
The only solution is to pay down our debt with printed money monetize it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal
What happens when China and others finally stop buying ANY of our debt? China is already leveraging our debt to attempt to influence our foreign policy.
just sayin..........
We enter hyperinflation. With the worlds reserve curency
There is no question that the government is falsely holding up the the current real estate market (residential) with a blank check to Fannie/Freddie and extended credits to homebuyers set to expire next month. What happens then? The government has bills to pay and it would not surprise me if within the next few years potential homebuyers face double digit mortgage interest rates as were seen in the early 1980's.
What IF Cape & Tax as well as Socialized Healthcare pass? How will a nation with double digit unemployment and negligible averages of personal savings absorb the additional taxes and resulting inflation?
How will the government deal with $800 billion in debt interest payments/year (near term assuming interest rates remain constant with today) as a result of tripling our national debt through broadened entitlement programs?
What happens when China and others finally stop buying ANY of our debt? China is already leveraging our debt to attempt to influence our foreign policy.
just sayin..........
Sounds like China has no interest in abandoning the US dollar or US treasuries - and despite the constant claims by the US dollar bashers on this board, it seems their interest in gold is pretty muted.
"China, the world's biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves, renewed its commitment to the U.S. Treasury market on Tuesday but said it would be wary of adding to its gold holdings."
...
"On a 30-year horizon gold was not a great investment, he said, and China would simply drive up prices if it piled into the market."
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