Is the mega-earthquake topic passé? (Portland, Adams: homes, schools, roofing)

[ericspence]

We've all heard about it. The 9.2+ seizmic knockout punch inevitably coming sometime in the lifetime of millennials (or possibly tomorrow). It is definitely being ignored--all things considered and with all due respect. I don't think this is a strictly PNW or westcoast problem, it is a North American problem. Of course, whatever economic, social, political, and other traumatizing effects this will likely have on the continent, the sheer physical impact will will be right here. Why is there virtually no discourse regarding preparation?... False hope? Unfounded confidence? Ever kicking the can till it happens? Sheer laziness? Sheer apathy? Or even some form of depressed, gothic welcome to existential consequence--aka secret apocalyptic wish? A mix of subjectively differing amounts of all of the above?

Whatever the reason we pump the brakes on this topic, it will not play out well in any sense, fantasy or real, if it goes ignored..

[PNW-type-gal]

Or, maybe because it is not a Portland-centric topic, the threads are in the broader Oregon forum

http://www.city-data.com/forum/orego...ng-across.html
http://www.city-data.com/forum/orego...r-big-one.html

Plus a topic in the Portland forum
http://www.city-data.com/forum/portl...rthquakes.html

[oregonwoodsmoke]

You don't watch the local news? They have been running special segments about retrofitting schools to make them safer in an earthquake. So, I wouldn't say that the topic is not being discussed.

[jjpop]

Originally Posted by ericspence

Why is there virtually no discourse regarding preparation?... False hope? Unfounded confidence? Ever kicking the can till it happens? Sheer laziness? Sheer apathy? Or even some form of depressed, gothic welcome to existential consequence--aka secret apocalyptic wish? A mix of subjectively differing amounts of all of the above?

Whatever the reason we pump the brakes on this topic, it will not play out well in any sense, fantasy or real, if it goes ignored..

There has been discourse, but if you mean talk being turned into action, until Oregonians, Washingtonians, Northern Californians and British Columbians demand that our governments do something about preparedness, nothing will happen. The cost of earthquake-proofing our infrastructure is so massive that nobody in power wants to even whisper about it. This has to happen at the federal level, and should be considered a regional project--not just state-by-state, and we know how open Congress is to new, massive infrastructure projects.

The recent 10-year anniversary of Katrina has resulted in several news reports about how New Orleans is doing now, after a lot of government spending to get it back up and running. Population is still down like 70,000 from pre-Katrina levels, but the consensus is that NOLA has pretty much recovered. Once the Army Corps (or whoever was responsible for fixing the levees) repaired the levees and the water receded, there was a lot of cleanup but I would imagine much of the infrastructure, although damaged, was not completely destroyed. I'm talking roads and bridges that were still at least somewhat functional, so movement of heavy equipment and materials could happen so that NOLA could rebuild. Someone who knows more about this could verify or negate what I'm saying here.

But contrast that with our infrastructure after the earthquake--power will be out, water mains and sewer lines will rupture, and because major REGIONAL roads and bridges throughout the western parts of the three states and BC will be impassible, how will we get the heavy equipment and materials in to start recovering? You have to repair those first. That's why the regional FEMA head said that he will beg, borrow, or steal helicopters once it happens because that will be the only form of transportation that will work.

During the Katrina coverage, a few times I heard experts say that if money had been spent to improve the levees before Katrina, the recovery cost and time would not have been as severe. I think the same applies here.

[CanuckInPortland]

The New Yorker article woke people up, but a lot of what was taken away from it was sort of fatalistic. The quote "Everything west of I-5 will be toast" from a 9.0+ earthquake with a 10% chance of that happening in the next 50 years sort of just lead people to think there's nothing we could really do to prepare for a disaster of that magnitude if it happened. It's like the possibility that eventually New York City will have a massive terrorist attack most likely--people know it could happen but they just move on from dwelling on it after a while.

The truth is that, there could be a lesser earthquake on a closer fault also that could damage a lot of Portland--not even getting to the more distant possibility of a mega-quake. But things are happening, schools are being retrofitted, people are doing things on their own though--a local company in Portland I spoke too is doing a lot more earthquake retrofitting for older homes(bolting to the foundation).

But there's really nothing you can do for a lot of older brick buildings besides just hoping you're not in them when an earthquake hits. And bridge replacements or retrofits can't happen because of political infighting and national candidates who would rather talk about billions for a wall on the Mexico border rather than fixing the infrastructure of the US. The thing is though that other regions like Chile and Japan have survived 9.0 quakes with higher building standards than the Pacific Northwest has(but should adopt).

[58rhodes]

if it happens then it happens --Im more worried about North Korea

[AndyAMG]

Originally Posted by ericspence

We've all heard about it. The 9.2+ seismic knockout punch inevitably coming sometime in the lifetime of millennials (or possibly tomorrow).

Please show me where you heard this.

Considering our last earthquake was a 5.4 barely felt in 1994. I think this is a bit of rubbish. Some may say an entire pile of rubbish.

There are no large historical earthquake events dating back to the 1800s in the Pac NW. All the big events have been volcanoes. There was a 7.1 in Olympia in 1949 that caused extensive damage, but everything was back to normal in less than a year.

Earthquakes may or may not be devastating, no one earthquake even of a great magnitude acts the same. The idea that everything will be toast is extreme hyperbole. If we do have a big one the real danger will be tsunami as it will likely come from the ocean floor. The pac NW is not known for large earthquakes. Many point to a 9 magnitude quake in 1700... but we really dont know anything about that quake, we have no scientific evidence or observation. It could have been smaller, it was also likely on the ocean floor because it created a super tsunami.

In the 1700s they thought Mount Hood was 16,000 feet tall because it was more pointy than Mount Adams. 1700s science for you...

[sorupaa]

all the bridges are really old, will the bridges fall befor the earthquake? the east and west portland will split and become two cities. vancouver would have a big downtown too. that would be nice to have three cities like that

[58rhodes]

Originally Posted by drum bro

all the bridges are really old, will the bridges fall befor the earthquake? the east and west portland will split and become two cities. vancouver would have a big downtown too. that would be nice to have three cities like that

Mother nature has always cleansed the earth

sometimes thats a good thing

[Nell Plotts]

The only bridges, IMHO, that will survive is the Tillicum and the new Sellwood.

No, Portland will not split into two cities but for a while they may need to function as if they did.

No one knows when or how a major earthquake will occur. The geology of the faults along the WA, OR & CA coast is just now being seriously explored.