Apple Campus in RTP area? (Raleigh, Durham: townhouses, landlords, zoned)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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As I said in a previous post, if we (citizenry, local governments and state) do this the "right way" we can get a handle on how we want this all to work; to try an mitigate the system shock if you will.
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You natives and people who have been here a lot longer than me have a place that is attractive to people (and now bigger name companies). Its a good problem to have as long as you don't corner yourself in and get run over (meaning the people should ensure guard rails in place to not do harm to the area; change happens. But make sure the change works as best as it can for as many people that it can)
And yes, the affordability thing is crazy. My buddy was telling me last night his neighbors put their house on the market for 485K. It was under contract a day later and eventually sold for 527K. That's what, like 109% of ask??
I'm not a native, I'm from NJ.
You are more optimistic than me about citizenry, governments and state doing things the right way! Free market, prices very high already, tech hub drives them up more. Like I said, I don't resent the tech folks, but I reserve the right to have empathy for people who cannot afford to buy here. Don't know what else to tell you.
It's amazing. I could be in the minority, but there's a cap for this reader. Not just from a "what I can afford" but moreso "what I would be willing to pay in a town like WF, HS, FV etc". Sooner or later, WF money becomes fancier towns in the area/ areas in the country money.
Agree, will be interesting to see how/if 540 changes that in the South Cary/SE Apex/East Holly Springs areas.
You are more optimistic than me about citizenry, governments and state doing things the right way! Free market, prices very high already, tech hub drives them up more. Like I said, I don't resent the tech folks, but I reserve the right to have empathy for people who cannot afford to buy here. Don't know what else to tell you.
“Here” will just move a bit. Pittsboro will be the new Clayton. We are blessed with land all around us. I don’t think we are in danger of seeing even NoVa prices let alone Silicon Valley prices. But we do need to start planning now, getting ahead of the infrastructure game is key.
I think there can be too much of a good thing, and we were already past the tipping point on that, so I’m not sure Apple coming here will make it much worse. Probably will though. I already can’t afford to buy another house with the extra room that we need in the town I’m in, so I’ve been looking at farther out suburbs, and even those are getting more expensive. The buying frenzy that’s taken place over the past year is mind-blowing. And I’d literally have to win the lottery to even rent in the area here where I grew up and used to live just a couple decades ago. I’d love to think we could get a handle on this, but we haven’t been doing a good job so far, so I seriously doubt it.
You are more optimistic than me about citizenry, governments and state doing things the right way! Free market, prices very high already, tech hub drives them up more. Like I said, I don't resent the tech folks, but I reserve the right to have empathy for people who cannot afford to buy here. Don't know what else to tell you.
I knew you weren't native, but put you in the "longer than me" bucket; although admittedly was an assumption on my part.
And yes, my position is putting faith in people who probably shouldn't have it. I mean look at the school board complaints on this board and then the people everyone seemingly hate win again and again.
Your empathy is not misplaced. I'm just hopeful that we here (in an area that is way behind the "developed curve" than other older metros like SF, BOS, NY; in a "there is still a lot of area here that other cities developed in their places long ago context) can look at what those examples provide and choose a different path. That could be misplaced hope.
ETA - If I compare geographies of Boston to Raleigh (two metro areas adult GVoR has lived in) it paints the picture I am sorta getting at.
BOS has 128/93/95 loop (basically our 440 loop). Inside that loop (which is 15-20 miles around Boston proper) is basically downtown and the immediate suburbs. Basically tapped out development wise. Expensive to buy in.
BOS has 495 which is a kin to 540 (even though distance wise, 540 is equidistant to 128/93/95 in Boston; its the outside loop nonetheless). Inside of 495 is somewhat affordable but still expensive. 495 is basically a 35-50 mil loop from downtown BOS. Exurbs, Commuter rail lines to get to downtown etc.
To put that on the map here, a loop around Raleigh, 35-50 miles from downtown would be Henderson, Burlington, Fayetteville, Wilson. The amount of land still develop-able in that radius is off the charts (and I'm not arguing for developing everything). What makes BOS expensive is basically everything inside of that 50 mile loop is as developed as it ever will be so the supply is set. That same feature doesn't apply here yet, even if the "540 and in" locations are close to tapped out.
Hey, maybe now Raleigh/Durham can get a third Apple store now? The Apple campus is a bit too close to Southpoint so maybe a nice urban one fitted to the future Raleigh Union Station Bus Station mix use tower. That would be nice, Red Hat employees love their Macs, ironically.
I'm sure that Citrix employees would love an Apple store in the Union Station tower also. They're basically neighbors.
i don't think you quite realize the pull that a faang company has. It will not just be 3000. Other companies and people in general will flow into the area with more of a fervor than they already were. People are overwhelmingly drawn to the gravitational wells that are faang. This can be seen as a catalyst for a lot more migration and development.
You need to look outside of fixed numbers. The current real estate market is already insane, this is going to push it further over the edge.
What makes BOS expensive is basically everything inside of that 50 mile loop is as developed as it ever will be so the supply is set. That same feature doesn't apply here yet, even if the "540 and in" locations are close to tapped out.
The supply in Boston is only set because the towns and state refuse to permit more housing to be built. What’s frustrating in Boston is that the inner suburbs (Brookline, Cambridge, Somerville) have a lot of multifamily housing while retaining all the positive characteristics of the suburbs (good schools, parks, etc.). If it were legal just to keep building the same kinda of structures in the outer suburbs (Newton, Medford, Milton) there would be plenty of housing to keep Boston affordable, and you could complement that small-scale development with more intensive development around the commuter rail stations. Instead, misguided land use policies adopted in the early/mid 20th century make things too expensive, forcing people further and further away.
The Triangle has similar opportunities, though we’d have to rely on busses and bike highways (I said greenways earlier; I meant the kind of bike highway currently proposed to connect Chapel Hill/Southpoint with RTP). You could start by building apartments around the malls, making them large “edge cities” connected to jobs.
Obviously, people who want suburbia and land will have to pay more. But there are a lot of people who don’t want or care about living in suburbia, and giving them more urban options would allow us to keep the suburbs cheaper for a little while longer.
The supply in Boston is only set because the towns and state refuse to permit more housing to be built. What’s frustrating in Boston is that the inner suburbs (Brookline, Cambridge, Somerville) have a lot of multifamily housing while retaining all the positive characteristics of the suburbs (good schools, parks, etc.). If it were legal just to keep building the same kinda of structures in the outer suburbs (Newton, Medford, Milton) there would be plenty of housing to keep Boston affordable, and you could complement that small-scale development with more intensive development around the commuter rail stations. Instead, misguided land use policies adopted in the early/mid 20th century make things too expensive, forcing people further and further away.
The Triangle has similar opportunities, though we’d have to rely on busses and bike highways (I said greenways earlier; I meant the kind of bike highway currently proposed to connect Chapel Hill/Southpoint with RTP). You could start by building apartments around the malls, making them large “edge cities” connected to jobs.
Obviously, people who want suburbia and land will have to pay more. But there are a lot of people who don’t want or care about living in suburbia, and giving them more urban options would allow us to keep the suburbs cheaper for a little while longer.
Right, my point was that there isn't more development coming to release the pressure there; be it from the scarcity of resources (land available) or town covenants (as you mention). Wellsley was always the funny one to me. Building height is limited and I believe they have limitations on what type of retail you can have in town. Sharon is similar.
If the Triangle can strike the right balance between "development free for all with no plan or care" and "no more development here because we need wide open spaces and the church has to be the tallest building in town" then that's the path that keeps the area vibrant and flourishing while hopefully avoiding the unsustainable/unattainable for many situations we see in other metros.
“Here” will just move a bit. Pittsboro will be the new Clayton. We are blessed with land all around us. I don’t think we are in danger of seeing even NoVa prices let alone Silicon Valley prices. But we do need to start planning now, getting ahead of the infrastructure game is key.
Pittsboro already is well on its way to being the new Clayton and beyond with Chatham Park potentially bringing 60,000 people in the next 20 years, and this was projected before Apple's announcement. And that area is positioned much more favorably than Clayton (unless it's to get to the beach more quickly ). That raises an excellent point as far as how far out this will push more reasonably priced housing for super-commuters, which includes people who aren't making a $180,000 or more annual salary will be commuting from.
What about the people who still need to teach the children in these areas, and work in child care, and clean hotel rooms, and work at the In & Out Burger (and this isn't all students or retirees)? Not everyone can afford to live in a neighborhood that starts in the $800s, and as much of an issue as it is now, it's only going to get more intense for the foreseeable future.
The Triangle seems to be growing more to the west and southwest and does it eventually push more growth into western Chatham County (Siler City) or even into Randolph county further west? Will Sanford end up with 100,000 people at some point?
Obviously, at this point, and probably for the foreseeable future, the entire cultural vibe in those areas is very different from the immediate RTP area, but if people who lived near similar facilities out west are saying this pushed development a good ways away, eventually, it may not be so far fetched (maybe) that unprecedented growth could head in directions that have not seen it? Maybe not in 2023 but 2030, 2040, or 2050 could be a different story. When you think of people in the DC area (which obviously is a larger scale area), people are commuting into job centers from parts of West Virginia, which years ago seemed outlandish. How far does this ultimately extend?
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