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High Transmission = 100 cases/day/100K people. For Wake County, it seems that means we would increase the % of population testing positive by 1% every ~100 days. (100 cases/100K pop/11 {1,100,000 div by 100K} X 100 days) = 0.91%
In 20 months (~605 days), we're at 14.2% nationally, 14.1% for the state, and ~12.4% in Wake County. That means roughly, through the highs and lows of Covid, we've had 2.4%/100 days growth.
So why would it take 60% lower transmission (.99/2.4) than the entirety of Covid just to get to Substantial? And 80% lower to get to Moderate (0.5/2.4)?
In NC, cases are already only 30% of what they were 60 days ago. Same for Wake County.
"People who test positive for COVID-19 and are within 10 days of symptom onset are encouraged to call the WakeMed mAb Infusion Line at 919-350-9590 to see if they qualify for monoclonal antibody (mAb) infusion therapy.
WakeMed is participating in the national Crush COVID initiative to help people avoid serious illness and hospitalization. WakeMed is administering mAb treatment at four Crush COVID sites – North Hospital (in the Physicians Office Pavilion), Raleigh Campus (next to P5), Cary Hospital Medical District (222 Ashville Avenue) and Garner Healthplex (near helipad) – in addition to our Heart Center site and Emergency Departments.
A physician referral is not required. The treatment is free for people who do not have health insurance. For those who do have health insurance, copays, coinsurance and/or deductibles may apply depending on insurance coverage."
High Transmission = 100 cases/day/100K people. For Wake County, it seems that means we would increase the % of population testing positive by 1% every ~100 days. (100 cases/100K pop/11 {1,100,000 div by 100K} X 100 days) = 0.91%
In 20 months (~605 days), we're at 14.2% nationally, 14.1% for the state, and ~12.4% in Wake County. That means roughly, through the highs and lows of Covid, we've had 2.4%/100 days growth.
So why would it take 60% lower transmission (.99/2.4) than the entirety of Covid just to get to Substantial? And 80% lower to get to Moderate (0.5/2.4)?
In NC, cases are already only 30% of what they were 60 days ago. Same for Wake County.
a week-ish later, and Wake County's drop in cases has finally made us "just" substantial. Test % remains at 3% though.
The current CDC community spread map is pretty interesting. For a long time the south was blamed for covid spread due to lack of vaccinations, lack of mandates (Florida for example), etc. I think this proves that Covid is very seasonal, and affects different parts of the country at different times of the year. Nothing that should be overly surprising. This does make me question the amount of effort we're putting into vaccination mandates, mask mandates, etc.
well, Wake is right back to High Transmission by this capricious CDC measure. I know why it's deemed high - cases have snuck up about 10%. I just think the measure is unjustified.
well, Wake is right back to High Transmission by this capricious CDC measure. I know why it's deemed high - cases have snuck up about 10%. I just think the measure is unjustified.
scroll down to the vaccination info. a few points ...
93% of 65+ fully-vaccinated; 99.9% of them have at least 1 shot
76.8% of > 18 fully-vaxxed; also 99% have at least 1
75.8% > 12 fully-vaxxed; also 97% at least 1 shot
I don't see how we're going to get significantly better on these %'s, beyond getting the booster accepted by the old & immune-compromised.
Agree. The percentages will only go down as the goalposts change for "fully vaccinated", and people stop getting boosters. Unfortunately the vaccine is not having the affect that was expected or wanted by the experts.
Time to put this completely behind us (including masks) unless we see variants with significantly worse outcomes. As much as it sucks, this is likely something that we (hospitals especially) are going to just have to deal with during certain parts of the year. Looks like there's a lot being accomplished as far as therapeutics go, and assumedly the vaccine will also improve over time.
well, Wake is right back to High Transmission by this capricious CDC measure. I know why it's deemed high - cases have snuck up about 10%. I just think the measure is unjustified.
The data continuing to flow out of Israel (not an island, didn't ban international travel, yes a Democracy) is pretty telling on the booster stuff.
Kids got dose 1 last Friday. Mrs and I get our booster tomorrow AM.
Possibly, but I also think comparing the necessity of widespread boosters in a country with 9 million people and a density of 400/km to a country of 330 million and density of 36/km isn’t apples to apples.
By all means I think boosters should be offered, and definitely for higher risk. I just don’t want to see boosters then become the norm and pseudo-mandated. My company just passed a policy that no one can be hired who isn’t fully vaccinated. Are those who don’t have boosters next? Just seems overkill.
Possibly, but I also think comparing the necessity of widespread boosters in a country with 9 million people and a density of 400/km to a country of 330 million and density of 36/km isn’t apples to apples.
By all means I think boosters should be offered, and definitely for higher risk. I just don’t want to see boosters then become the norm and pseudo-mandated. My company just passed a policy that no one can be hired who isn’t fully vaccinated. Are those who don’t have boosters next? Just seems overkill.
I think its seems pretty clear, and m378 and I have discussed this before, that COVID is going to roll into our seasonal flu and as such, I would assume the COVID vax would become basically another flu shot, which some people get and some people don't.
I would agree Israel poses a not apples to apple comp in terms of spread (population density etc). But their Hospitalization and Death rates (the far more important numbers as I've been told by folks here), have, since Delta showed up (and they went "yaaa, 3 shots" when Delta arrived) trended very, very differently than the US on a per 100K basis (we are now apparently heading into our 5th wave) while they recorded no COVID deaths something like 4 of the 7 days last week. And to your last point, I have seen Medical Experts state that "fully vaxxed isn't until 3 shots. 1 or 2 simply aren't that". So who knows. Between the "Practice of Medicine" and the Scientific Method, one should expect guidance to change as more data is available (that's how both of these things work, its not some conspiracy when the Medical community learns something and adjusts....its the Scientific Method at work, this isn't to imply you personally don't get that STL, just pointing it out for the broader discussion.) I start a new job on Monday, I had to provide my vax card as part of the offer acceptance process (and realistically, will almost never go to an office - I don't live in Cali or UT or Austin or Boston where the main offices are)
The flu shot doesn't stop the flu. The COVID vax / shot doesn't stop COVID...it just makes it less severe. People gon do what people gon do.
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