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Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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Guessing: At current interest rate, ~5.5%, excellent credit scores, big down payment, IMO, home prices to fall 25-30% from early 2022/late 2021, highs (not 2020), in desirable areas.
YGMV
Last edited by leastprime; 06-17-2022 at 11:21 AM..
Not a chance it falls 50%. Still a huge lack of supply. Even as demand has cratered due to rising rates I’m still seeing homes near me get scooped up in less than a week. The problem is that rent prices are rising as fast or faster than home prices so people are desperate to get out of that situation especially when they aren’t building any equity.
Guessing: At current interest rate, ~5.5%, excellent credit scores, big down payment, IMO, home prices to fall 25-30% from early 2022/late 2021, highs (not 2020), in desirable areas.
YGMV
That’s hysterical. The average 30-year mortgage rate for the past 50 years is over 7%. Anyone who ever bought a home before 2009 had over a 5.5% note.
Home prices are not going to fall 25-30% unless the economy goes seriously downhill and we get up into the 10% unemployment rate range we saw during the Great Recession. And that is just not what this is.
We are about 3 million homes short of demand right now & 9-10 million jobs open.
That’s hysterical. The average 30-year mortgage rate for the past 50 years is over 7%. Anyone who ever bought a home before 2009 had over a 5.5% note.
Home prices are not going to fall 25-30% unless the economy goes seriously downhill and we get up into the 10% unemployment rate range we saw during the Great Recession. And that is just not what this is.
We are about 3 million homes short of demand right now & 9-10 million jobs open.
I agree with you. Everyone thinks this is the next GR housing bubble but the conditions are very different today than they were then. I could see a slight pullback or stagnation in prices over the next couple years but we are also near the peak of the mortgage rate cycle already. This week’s rates are pushing 6% already and I don’t see them exceeding 8% at the peak.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,060 posts, read 7,493,946 times
Reputation: 9787
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80
That’s hysterical. The average 30-year mortgage rate for the past 50 years is over 7%. Anyone who ever bought a home before 2009 had over a 5.5% note.
Home prices are not going to fall 25-30%B unless the economy goes seriously downhill and we get up into the 10% unemployment rate range we saw during the Great Recession. And that is just not what this is.
We are about 3 million homes short of demand right now & 9-10 million jobs open.
^ yeah, I understand the housing shortage and job openings.
The question is whether homes are affordable at current income and cost of borrowing...it's not, except for the few who can. Let me reword; Ask, home prices will fall 25-30% in certain areas, inorder to meet the Bid, affordable, offer. IMO, my guess based on our area. Our region has transitioned to a Buyer's Market.
I voted no. I can see things cooling down and getting back to a better balance between buyers and sellers, but not crashing. Maybe, depending on where you live, prices may go down.
I agree with you. Everyone thinks this is the next GR housing bubble but the conditions are very different today than they were then. I could see a slight pullback or stagnation in prices over the next couple years but we are also near the peak of the mortgage rate cycle already. This week’s rates are pushing 6% already and I don’t see them exceeding 8% at the peak.
I agree - and isn’t the Fed “soft landing” thought they raise aggressively until inflation breaks and then start cutting rates to spur economic growth at a more steady rate?
I think a big issue is that anyone younger than 36 has not been employed during a recession - and almost anyone younger than 40 thinks that the Great Recession was a “normal” one instead of a once in 50-75 year event. And also that recessions aren’t always the same….last one was caused by the world shutting down due to a novel virus pandemic, the one before by the housing market speculation & risky lending practices, the one before that due to .com stock bust.
Could be likely that real estate holds up well as a safer place to keep assets vs stocks in the near to mid term.
^ yeah, I understand the housing shortage and job openings.
The question is whether homes are affordable at current income and cost of borrowing...it's not, except for the few who can. Let me reword; Ask, home prices will fall 25-30% in certain areas, inorder to meet the Bid, affordable, offer. IMO, my guess based on our area. Our region has transitioned to a Buyer's Market.
Real estate is local so definitely some markets will stagnate. I live in Dallas where things are not flying like they were this spring, but yet every sub-$3M listing in my neighborhood is under contract or sold within the last 30 days, most in under a week.
I do not think it will crash in Southern California. Lots of people who cannot afford here moved away. Poor people were not affected by the high prices, they cannot afford anything here anyway.
And there are too many rich people here who will continue to buy. I know a guy who is working in titles - he said, there is an endless amount of money in Socal. For every property that's on sale and every middle class family moving away and selling, there are several people ready to buy their property. With cash. Over asking price.
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