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U.S. house prices to continue plunge until 2010, expert says | MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/743323.html - broken link)
I listen to a lot of Nouriel Roubini on Google Video. It's like listening to the Grim Reaper talk about economics.
He's a perma-bear, no question about it. He'll make you want to put your life savings into your mattress! I think he provides a very useful guide to what we can expect as the worst-case scenario, whereas the NAR provides what we can expect as the best-case scenario.
The NAR is silly to follow, way too optimistic. Today, in their analysis Yun says now is a buyers market but next year may not be! I want some of whatever he is smoking when he does his analysis.
Roubini may be pessimistic and overly dramatic but he has been pretty on with his predictions. Another 16% drop in home prices on an annuallized basis does not seem to far off. If we end up down 40% over 2006 levels nationwide this will not surprise me too much.
Roubini may appear bearish to some, but he is much more accurate than the perma bull NAR.
NAR is highly motivated to do nothing but happy talk, while Roubini makes a living as a permabear. Each one has an "audience" that must be catered to in order to keep the income flowing. IMO, if you wanted to figure out what was going on, never mind what was likely to happen over the next couple of years, you'd be better off looking at a wider range of opinions.
Great advice to follow a wider range of opinions from economists. Anyone have any suggestions of a nice balanced portfolio of reputable economists? So far on my list I have Schiller and Roubini. I think I need some balancing out towards the more positive side, though....
I like Barry Ritholtz's blog, and Jim Rogers is interesting to listen to.
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I actually think Roubini is pretty on
